The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The influence of fear on the dynamics of harvested prey-predator model with intra-specific competition is suggested and studied, where the fear effect from the predation causes decreases of growth rate of prey. We suppose that the predator attacks the prey under the Holling type IV functional response. he existence of the solution is investigated and the bounded-ness of the solution is studied too. In addition, the dynamical behavior of the system is established locally and globally. Furthermore, the persistence conditions are investigated. Finally, numerical analysis of the system is carried out.
Recently, environmental noise has arisen from various sources, such as those from exhaust mufflers of combustion engines found in cars, trucks, or power generators, which produce significant noise during their operation. Controlling the radiated noise from these mufflers is a major factor in improving acoustic comfort and minimizing the impact on the surrounding communities. Numerous research has been presented for this reason by modification of the internal structure of the exhaust muffler. The main objective of this work is to reduce the noise level emitted from exhaust mufflers. This can be achieved by adjusting structure parameters to attenuate the surrounding environment's radiated noise. Analysis of pressure-wave propagation h
... Show More11-22 Description An apology may be defined as “the act of declaring one’s regret, remorse or sorrow for having insulted, failed, injured, harmed or wronged another (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy IEP). A definition quite interested in the function suggests that “an apology is a speech act addressed to B’s face–needs and intended to remedy an offence for which A. takes responsibility.”(Holmes, 1990: 159). Apologies are also" speech acts" that are hard to identify, define or categorize, a difficulty that arises directly out of the functions they perform (Lakoff, 2001: 201) and the forms they take. In function, they range from selfabasement for wrongdoing to the formal display of appropriate feeling. In form, they range from
... Show MoreDifferent frequency distributions models were fitted to the monthly data of raw water Turbidity at water treatment plants (WTPs) along Tigris River in Baghdad. Eight water treatment plants in Baghdad were selected, with raw water turbidity data for the period (2008-2014). The frequency distribution models used in this study are the Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Exponential and two parameters Gamma type. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. The data for years (2008-2011) were used for building the models. The best fitted distributions were Log-Normal (LN) for Al-Karkh, Al-Wathbah, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dawrah and, Al-Rashid WTPs. Gamma distribution fitted well for East Tigris and Al-Karamah
... Show MoreDifferent frequency distributions models were fitted to the monthly data of raw water Turbidity at water treatment plants (WTPs) along Tigris River in Baghdad. Eight water treatment plants in Baghdad were selected, with raw water turbidity data for the period (2008-2014). The frequency distribution models used in this study are the Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Exponential and two parameters Gamma type. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. The data for years (2008-2011) were used for building the models. The best fitted distributions were Log-Normal (LN) for Al-Karkh, Al-Wathbah, Al-Qadisiya, Al- Dawrah and, Al-Rashid WTPs. Gamma distribution fitted well for East Tigris and Al-Karamah WTPs. As for Al-
... Show MoreThis article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a
... Show MoreThe role of the public sector- Investment customizations- economic embargo - The role of the private sector - Coexistence between the public and private sectors - Ratio of growth
Background: Antibacterial action of root canal filling is an important factor for successful root canal treatment, so the aim of the study was to identify and to compare the antimicrobial effect of new sealer (GuttaFlow) to commonly used endodontic sealers (AH Plus, Apexit and EndoFill) against four endodontic microbes. Materials and methods: Twenty patients aged (30-40) years with infected root canals were selected. Four types of microorganisms were isolated from root canals (E faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus, E coli and Candida albicans) and cultured on Mueller Hinton agar Petri-dishes. After identification and isolation of bacterial species, agar diffusion method was used to assess the antibacterial action of four contemporary endodontic
... Show MoreIn this study, the adsorption of Zn (NO3)2 is carried out by using surfaces of malvaparviflora. The validity of the adsorption is evaluated by using atomic absorption Spectrophotometry through determination the amount of adsorbed Zn (NO3)2. Various parameters such as PH, adsorbent weight and contact time are studied in terms of their effect on the reaction progress. Furthermore, Lagergren’s equation is used to determine adsorption kinetics. It is observed that high removal of Zn (NO3)2 is obtained at PH=2. High removal of Zn (NO3)2 is at the time equivalent of 60 min and reaches equilibrium,where 0.25gm is the best weight of adsorbant . For kinetics the reaction onto malvaparviflora follows pseudo first order Lagergren’s equation.