The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
This research dealt with the impact of internal control on tax performance using balanced scorecard indicators because of its special importance in improving tax performance and reform. The internal control system is a safety valve for senior management in all organizations, it plays an important role in the regularity and development of work and the fight against corruption To provide reliable and accurate data and information, follow up on compliance with laws, regulations and instructions. The aim of this research is to demonstrate how control affects tax performance and how to adapt internal control components to improve tax performance. In the General Authority for taxes and its branches,. The research resulted in a number of conclu
... Show Moreبناء على ما تقدم يتضح ان القطاع العام والقطاع الخاص ليسا موقفا ايدولوجيا انتقائيا، وانما هو انبثاق من العمود الفقري للصيرورة الرأسمالية القائمة على تقديس الملكية الخاصة، وان الادوار التي يمكن ان يلعباها ليسا منعزلين عن الحركة العامة للاقتصاد في كليته، وليس هما ابنا السياسات الاقتصادية، والبناء الفوقي بقدر ماهما نتاج الحركة الموضوعية وصيرورة التطور الاجتماعي معبرا عنها في تطور علاقات الانتاج وقوى الانتا
... Show MoreThis paper discuses the mindset contribution of the organization Science in organizational effectiveness (OE), and the most valuable thoughts they introduced in this subject, starting from the pre- classical era, through classical era to present time. This paper has identified the main contribution in OE. The concept of OE didn’t arise until what had been introduced by Chester Barnard, although Max Weber mentioned this concept in his bureaucratic theory, but he didn’t explain it as Barnard does. After that no clear focus was pointed to this subject until Peter Drucker did so, which considered as the main participant in OE after Barnard. After that many researchers be interested in OE and they start studying this subject like
... Show MoreIn this research we assumed that the number of emissions by time (𝑡) of radiation particles is distributed poisson distribution with parameter (𝑡), where < 0 is the intensity of radiation. We conclude that the time of the first emission is distributed exponentially with parameter 𝜃, while the time of the k-th emission (𝑘 = 2,3,4, … . . ) is gamma distributed with parameters (𝑘, 𝜃), we used a real data to show that the Bayes estimator 𝜃 ∗ for 𝜃 is more efficient than 𝜃̂, the maximum likelihood estimator for 𝜃 by using the derived variances of both estimators as a statistical indicator for efficiency
This study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreThis paper presents ABAQUS simulations of fully encased composite columns, aiming to examine the behavior of a composite column system under different load conditions, namely concentric, eccentric with 25 mm eccentricity, and flexural loading. The numerical results are validated with the experimental results obtained for columns subjected to static loads. A new loading condition with a 50 mm eccentricity is simulated to obtain additional data points for constructing the interaction diagram of load-moment curves, in an attempt to investigate the load-moment behavior for a reference column with a steel I-section and a column with a GFRP I-section. The result comparison shows that the experimental data align closely with the simulation
... Show MoreThe current research seeks to identify the role of the marketing intelligence system in its dimensions (customer intelligence, market intelligence, competitor intelligence, insurance product intelligence, sales representatives) and its reflection on improving the quality of the insurance service provided by the National Insurance Company represented in its dimensions (reliability, response, tangibility, Safety, the spirit of empathy, communication) adopted in the current research, and based on that, the research came as an attempt to find out the extent to which the research sample company can apply the approach of the marketing intelligence system and its impact on improving the quality of the insurance service provided to custo
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