The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract:
This research aims to the importance of oil in achieving economic
security in the Arab. Oil is not an ordinary subject and returns it significance to
the followings:
1. The importance of skipping a source of energy.
2. The importance of oil as raw material for petrochemical industry.
3. The importance of the oil sector as an area of foreign investment
4. The importance of oil in the marketing activities, transport, insurance
and various services
In addition to the importance of oil in general and the Arab oil has
additional strategic advantages such as geographic location, And the
magnitude of reserves and production of heavy investment costs are relatively
simple, And the ability to meet the
This research aims to examine the relationship between learning organization and behavior of work teams. The variable of the learning organization took four dimensions depending on the study (sudhartna & Li, 2004): Common cultural values , communication, knowledge transfer and the characteristics of workers. The behavior of teams was identified on the basis of realizing of the respondents of their organization to work as a team where the research relied concepts applied in the study (Hakim , 2005) , and chose to research the case of a service organization for the study and relied on four dimensions of coordination , cooperation , sharing of information , the performance of the team, and was a curriculum approach and des
... Show MoreDue to a party's violation of his obligations or responsibilities indicated in the contract, many engineering projects confront extensive contractual disputes, which in turn need arbitration or other forms of dispute resolution, which negatively impact the project's outcome. Each contract has its terms for dispute resolution. Therefore, this paper aims to study the provisions for dispute resolution according to Iraqi (SBDW) and the JCT (SBC/Q2016) and also to show the extent of the difference between the two contracts in the application of these provisions. The methodology includes a detailed study of the dispute settlement provisions for both contracts with a comparative analysis to identify the differences in the appli
... Show MoreIn this work ,the modified williamos-Hall method was used to analysis the x-ray diffraction lines for powder of magnesium oxide nanoparticles (Mgo) .and for diffraction lines (111),(200),(220),(311) and (222).where by used special programs such as origin pro Lab and Get Data Graph ,to calculate the Full width at half maximum (FWHM) and integral breadth (B) to calculate the area under the curve for each of the lines of diffraction .After that , by using modified Williamson –Hall equations to determin the values of crystallite size (D),lattice strain (ε),stress( σ ) and energy (U) , where was the results are , D=17.639 nm ,ε =0.002205 , σ=0.517 and U=0.000678 respectively. And then using the scherrer method can by calculated the crystal
... Show MoreThe current research aims to identify: 1. The level of mathematical construct among the Department of Mathematics students in the colleges of education and basic education. 2. The level of effective mathematical operations in both sides of the brain at the Department of Mathematics students in the colleges of education and basic education. 3. The strength and direction of the correlation between the mathematical construct and effective mathematical operations on both sides of the brain at the Department of Mathematics students in the colleges of Education and Basic Education. To investigate the research objectives, the researcher formulated zero-main hypothesis for each aim and from the same hypothesis, three sub-zero hypotheses are deri
... Show MoreAbstract
The objective of this research is to identify the analysis of the ethics of the administration in the development of the social responsibility of one government organizations, and to achieve the objectives of the research was the use of a questionnaire developed for the purpose of data collection and distribution to the research sample, was chosen as a total sample population (50) individuals were relying on statistical package to do a statistical analysis for this research, user, ANSI (SPSS) simple regression analysis, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient.
Research findings show the role of social responsibility in achieving the university's strategy,
... Show MoreThermal properties of soils are important in buried structures contact problems. Although laboratory is distinctly advantageous in measuring the thermal conductivity of soil under ideal condition, given the ability to simulate relatively large-scale in place of soil bed, the field thermal conductivity of soil is not yet commonly used in many types of research. The use of only a laboratory experiment to estimate thermal conductivity may be the key reason for overestimation or underestimation it. In this paper, an intensive site investigation including field thermal conductivity tests for six different subsoil strata were performed using a thermal probe method (TLS-100) to systematically understanding the effects of field dry density, water c
... Show MoreThis work deals with kinetics and chemical equilibrium studies of esterification reaction of ethanol with acetic acid. The esterification reaction was catalyzed by an acidic ion exchange resin (Amberlyst- 15) using a batch stirred tank reactor. The pseudo-homogenous and Eley-Rideal models were successfully fitted with experimental data. At first, Eley-Rideal model was examined for heterogeneous esterification of acetic acid and ethanol. The pseudo-homogenous model was investigated with a power-law model. The apparent reaction order was determined to be (0.88) for Ethanol and (0.92) for acetic acid with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.981 and 0.988, respectively. The reaction order was determined to be 4.1087x10-3 L0.8/(mol0.8.min) with
... Show MoreA high percentage of existing buildings in Iraq are traditional buildings, yet there is approximately no such green building in Baghdad or other governorates. Most of these buildings require urgent upgrading to increase their performance (operationally, economically, and environmentally), also the building owners looking for identifying and implementing many of the green building measures to reduce the operational and maintenance costs of their buildings. The decision-makers need to support the possibility of achieving sustainable measures of existing building rating systems such as LEED or BREEAM, and that would require an optimization model. The goal of this study is to maximize the