The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
مشكلة البحث وأهمية:-
أن بناء الشخصية القادرة على التفاعل والتأثير في معطيات الحضارة ، والتقدم في مسالكها المتطورة ، بات هدفا لكل مجتمع يريد الوصول إلى مصاف الدول المتقدمة
(رسول ، 1984، ص7) وبالأخص في مجتمعنا الذي يمتلك مقومات المجتمعات المتحضرة ، فظهر الاهتمام بالدوافع التي تدفع الأفراد نحو مزيد من العطاء والإنجاز وتساعد في بناء شخصية قوية قادرة على تحقيق ما تصبو أليه من أهداف وطموحات ، ومتمتعة
Oral tablets containing solubilized drug in the presence of appropriate excipients may give us an immediate release of the drug. Phospholipid solid dispersion (PSD) is a branch of solid dispersion in which phospholipid acts as a hydrophilic polymer in the presence of a suitable adsorbent to enhance the solubility of poorly soluble drugs. The anti-hyperlipidemic drug Atorvastatin (ATR) is an example of such drug, as it belongs to the class II group according to the biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS) with low bioavailability due to its low solubility. Phosphatidylcholine in combination with magnesium aluminum silicate as an adsorbent in a ratio of ATR: PC: MAS 1:3:4 was used to prepare ATR PSD by the solvent evaporation method, the
... Show MoreThe dispersion relation of linear quantum ion acoustic waves is derivate according to a fluid approach that depends on the kinetic description of the systems of charged particles model. We discussed the dispersion relation by changing its parameters and graphically represented. We found through graphs that there is full agreement with previous studies on the subject of interest. That motivates us to discuss the dispersion relation of waves depending on the original basic parameters that implicitly involved in the relationship which change the relationship by one way or another, such as electron Fermi temperature and the density at equilibrium state.
The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became
... Show Moreمكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية
أن التركيب الهيكلي للجسم وقياساته الجسمية لها دورا ً كبيرا ً ومهما ً في الأداء الرياضي وتعتبر أحد أسس النجاح أو الفشل للفعالية التي يزاولها الرياضي ، كون توافر القياسات الجسمية الملائمة لمزاولة فعالية معينة تمنح الرياضي فرصة أكبر لإستيعاب الأداء الحركي السليم للمهارات ، ولكون فعالية الوثب العالي تعد واحدة من فعاليات ألعاب الساحة والميدان التي شملها التطور المتسارع في إنجازها لذا أرتأى الباحثون أن يتم أختي
... Show MoreForecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti
... Show MoreThe importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h
... Show MoreSpatial data observed on a group of areal units is common in scientific applications. The usual hierarchical approach for modeling this kind of dataset is to introduce a spatial random effect with an autoregressive prior. However, the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for this hierarchical framework requires the spatial effects to be sampled from their full conditional posteriors one-by-one resulting in poor mixing. More importantly, it makes the model computationally inefficient for datasets with large number of units. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses the spectral structure of the adjacency to construct a low-rank expansion for modeling spatial dependence. We propose a pair of computationally efficient estimati
... Show MoreThe present work investigates the effect of; superficial air velocities of: 1, 3, and 6 cm/s for two types of perforated distributor on hydrodynamic characteristic in a gas-liquid dispersion column of; air-water, and airaqueous-n-propanol solution. Bubble distribution, gas holdup, and power consumption are parameters take in consideration. Experimental work was carried out in perspex column of 8.5 cm inside diameter and 1.5 m height. Two types of bubble generator (perforated plate) were fixed at the bottom of the column; plate A (99 holes of 0.5 mm diameter and free area of 0.34%), plate B (20 holes of 1.5 mm diameter and free area of 0.62%). Photographic technique was used to measure the bubble parameters. The experimental results were
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