The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Estimation stage is one of most important in process of selecting and identification for fit model, this model gives a best results if the good methods of estimation are depended on, one of those methods is Bayes method for estimation the parameters, it puts an assumption that parameter have a distribution.
This paper studies the robustness of estimators of empirical Bayes to know the properties of those estimators.
Forecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
The characterization of ZnO and ZnO:In thin films were confirmed by spray pyrolysis technique. The films were deposited onto glass substrate at a temperature of 450°C. Optical absorption measurements were also studied by UV-VIS technique in the wavelength range 300-900 nm which was used to calculate the optical constants. The changes in dispersion and Urbach parameters were investigated as a function of In content. The optical energy gap was decreased and the wide band tails were increased in width from 616 to 844 eV as the In content increased from 0wt.% to 3wt.%. The single–oscillator parameters were determined also the change in dispersion was investigated before and after doping.
Ebastine (EBS) is a non-sedating antihistamine with a long duration of action. This drug has predominantly hydrophobic property causing a low solubility and low bioavailability. Surface solid dispersions (SSD) is an effective technique for improving the solubility and dissolution rate of poorly soluble drugs by using hydrophilic water insoluble carriers.
The present study aims to enhance the solubility and dissolution rate of EBS by using surface solid dispersion technique. Avicel® PH101, Avicel® PH 102, croscarmellose sodium(CCS) and sodium starch glycolate(SSG) were used as water insoluble hydrophilic carriers.
The SSD formulations of EBS were prepared by the solvent evaporation method in different drug: carrier
... Show MoreThe search is contain compared among some order selection criteria (FPE,AIC,SBC,H-Q) for the Model first order Autoregressive when the White Noise is follow Normal distribution and some of non Gaussian distributions (Log normal, Exponential and Poisson distribution ) by using Simulation
optical properties of pure poly(vinyl Alcohol) films and poly(vinyl Alcohol) doped with methyl red were study, different percentage prepared with constant thickness using casting technique. Absorption, Transmission spectra have been recorded in order to study the optical parameters such as absorption coefficient, energy gap, refractive index, Extinction coefficient and dispersion parameters were measured in the wavelength range (200-800)nm. This study reveals that the optical properties of PVA affect by increasing the impurity concentration.
Ondansetron hydrochloride (ONH) is a very bitter, potent antiemetic drug used for the treatment and/or prophylaxis of chemotherapy or radiotherapy or postoperative induced emesis. The objective of this study is to formulate and evaluate of taste masked fast dissolving tablet (FDTs) of ONH to increase patient compliance.
ONH taste masked granules were prepared by solid dispersion technique using Eudragit E100 polymer as an inert carrier. Solvent evaporation and fusion melting methods were used for such preparation.
Completely taste masking with zero release of drug in phosphate buffer pH 6.8was obtained from granules prepared by solvent evaporation method using drug: polymer ratio of 1:2, from which four formulas pas
... Show MoreSilybum marianum, from which silymarin (SM) is extracted, is a medicinal herb. In the Biopharmaceutics Classification System, it is of the class II type, meaning it is almost completely insoluble in water. It has a number of therapeutic properties, including anti-inflammatory as well as properties that promote wound healing.
This research target is to promote the dissolution and solubility of SM by employing a technique called solid dispersion and then incorporating the formula of solid dispersion into a topical gel that can be used for wound healing.
Solid dispersion is a technique used to enhance solubility and dissolve pharmaceuticals that are not water-soluble. This method is widely used because of its low cos
... Show MoreFor many problems in Physics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), providing an accurate approximation of derivatives is a challenging task. This paper presents a class of high order numerical schemes for approximating the first derivative. These approximations are derived based on solving a special system of equations with some unknown coefficients. The construction method provides numerous types of schemes with different orders of accuracy. The accuracy of each scheme is analyzed by using Fourier analysis, which illustrates the dispersion and dissipation of the scheme. The polynomial technique is used to verify the order of accuracy of the proposed schemes by obtaining the error terms. Dispersion and dissipation errors are calculated
... Show More<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c
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