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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
التنبؤ بالأحتياجات من أدوية الأمراض المزمنة والمحافظة على المال العام* دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة العيادات الطبية الشعبية
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Abstract                                                                                

The health section is considered to be one of the most important section in the  field of service economical and social unit because of its concern in the life of human begin and society and the  process of determining t

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Partial Least Square Regression(PLSR) and Tree Regression by Using Simulation(RT).
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This research discussed, the process of comparison between the regression model of partial least squares and tree regression, where these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "parameter statistics" of the partial least squares, which is adopted when the number of variables is greater than the number of observations and also when the number of observations larger than the number of variables, the second type is the "nonparametric statistic" represented by tree regression, which is the division of data in a hierarchical way. The regression models for the two models were estimated, and then the comparison between them, where the comparison between these methods was according to a Mean Square

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Interactive Effects of Major Insect Pest of Watermelon on its Yield in Wukari, Nigeria
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Watermelon is known to be infested by multiple insect pests both simultaneously and in sequence. Interactions by pests have been shown to have positive or negative, additive or non additive, compensatory or over compensatory effects on yields. Hardly has this sort of relationship been defined for watermelon vis-à-vis insect herbivores. A 2-year, 2-season (4 trials) field experiments were laid in the Research Farm of Federal University Wukari, to investigate the interactive effects of key insect pests of watermelon on fruit yield of Watermelon in 2016 and 2017 using natural infestations. The relationship between the dominant insect pests and fruit yield were determined by correlation (r) and linear regression (simple and multiple) analys

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
معادلات الانحدار غير المرتبطة ظاهريا (توزيع المتغيرات والخطأ بواسون)
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This study is about finding the estimation of tow equations, the comparative has been done between the estimations  by using seemingly unrelated regression equations for the variable and random error has been distribution with poisson and the variable and random error has been distribution with normal and the method by using oldenary lest square.

While in the application side, we have estimated the parameter of investment specification function for the sector of agriculture with the industry sector is enabled us to obtain an estimation efficiency for the model of seemingly unrelated Poisson regression equation.

المستخلص

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Tree regression (TR), and Negative binomial regression (NBR) by Using Simulation.
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            In this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Processing of Polymers Stress Relaxation Curves Using Machine Learning Methods
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Currently, one of the topical areas of application of machine learning methods is the prediction of material characteristics. The aim of this work is to develop machine learning models for determining the rheological properties of polymers from experimental stress relaxation curves. The paper presents an overview of the main directions of metaheuristic approaches (local search, evolutionary algorithms) to solving combinatorial optimization problems. Metaheuristic algorithms for solving some important combinatorial optimization problems are described, with special emphasis on the construction of decision trees. A comparative analysis of algorithms for solving the regression problem in CatBoost Regressor has been carried out. The object of

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between some of linear classification models with practical application
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Linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression are the most widely used in multivariate statistical methods for analysis of data with categorical outcome variables .Both of them are appropriate for the development of linear  classification models .linear discriminant analysis has been that the data of explanatory variables must be distributed multivariate normal distribution. While logistic regression no assumptions on the distribution of the explanatory data. Hence ,It is assumed that logistic regression is the more flexible and more robust method in case of violations of these assumptions.

In this paper we have been focus for the comparison between three forms for classification data belongs

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Primary Colors Red, Yellow, and Blue Use as Self-Cleaning Paints with Layer of Titanium Dioxide
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Transparent nano- coating was prepared by Sol-Gel method from titanium dioxide TiO2 which has the ability to self-cleaning coating used for hospitals, laboratories, and places requiring permanent sterilization. Three primary colors are selected (red, blue, and yellow) as preliminary study to the effect of these colors on the nano-coating. Three traditional oil paints color were used as base, then coated by a layer of TiO2-Sol and deposited on the paints. The optical properties of TiO2-Sol were measured; the maximum absorption wavelength at (λmax=387 nm), the refractive index (n=1.4423) and the energy band gap (Eg=3.2 eV). The structure properties found by X-ray diffraction of TiO

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Multifactor Algorithm for Test Case Selection and Ordering
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Regression testing being expensive, requires optimization notion. Typically, the optimization of test cases results in selecting a reduced set or subset of test cases or prioritizing the test cases to detect potential faults at an earlier phase. Many former studies revealed the heuristic-dependent mechanism to attain optimality while reducing or prioritizing test cases. Nevertheless, those studies were deprived of systematic procedures to manage tied test cases issue. Moreover, evolutionary algorithms such as the genetic process often help in depleting test cases, together with a concurrent decrease in computational runtime. However, when examining the fault detection capacity along with other parameters, is required, the method falls sh

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of losing one view of the independent variableAnd its location in simple regression analysis
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The objective of the research , is to shed light on the most important treatment of the problem of missing values of time series data and its influence in simple linear regression. This research deals with the effect of the missing values in independent variable only. This was carried out by proposing missing value from time series data which is complete originally and testing the influence of the missing value on simple regression analysis of data of an experiment related with the effect of the quantity of consumed ration on broilers weight for 15 weeks. The results showed that the missing value had not a significant effect as the estimated model after missing value was consistent and significant statistically. The results also

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