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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة بعض معايير تحديد الرتبة لانموذج الانحدار الذاتي (الطبيعي وغير الطبيعي) من الرتبة الاولـى بأستخدام المحاكـاة
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The search is contain compared among some order selection criteria  (FPE,AIC,SBC,H-Q) for the Model first order  Autoregressive when the White Noise is follow Normal distribution and some of non Gaussian distributions (Log normal, Exponential and Poisson distribution ) by using Simulation  

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 26 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Formulation and Evaluation of Fast Dissolving Tablets of Taste-Masked Ondansetron Hydrochloride by Solid Dispersion
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Ondansetron hydrochloride (ONH) is a very bitter, potent antiemetic drug used for the treatment and/or prophylaxis of chemotherapy or radiotherapy or postoperative induced emesis. The objective of this study is to formulate and evaluate of taste masked fast dissolving tablet (FDTs) of ONH to increase patient compliance.

 ONH taste masked granules were prepared by solid dispersion technique using Eudragit E100 polymer as an inert carrier. Solvent evaporation and fusion melting methods were used for such preparation.

Completely taste masking with zero release of drug in phosphate buffer pH 6.8was obtained from granules prepared by solvent evaporation method using drug: polymer ratio of 1:2, from which four formulas pas

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Simulation of Gaussian Pulses Propagation Through Single Mode Optical Fiber Using MATLAB
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Computer-aided modeling and simulation software programs are essential tools
to predict how an optical communication component, link, or network will function
and perform. This paper aims to investigate the various effects on pulses
propagation in optical transmission systems utilizing the MATLAB program.
Dispersion and Attenuation effects are explored. The simulation of Gaussian pulses
propagation through single mode optical fiber, simplifies the design of optical
communication system and make the design process more efficient, less expensive,
and faster.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The MR affect on optical properties for poly (Vinyl alcohol) films
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optical properties of pure poly(vinyl Alcohol) films and poly(vinyl Alcohol) doped with methyl red were study, different percentage prepared with constant thickness using casting technique. Absorption, Transmission spectra have been recorded in order to study the optical parameters such as absorption coefficient, energy gap, refractive index, Extinction coefficient and dispersion parameters were measured in the wavelength range (200-800)nm. This study reveals that the optical properties of PVA affect by increasing the impurity concentration.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Matrix Form of Deriving High Order Schemes for the First Derivative
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For many problems in Physics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), providing an accurate approximation of derivatives is a challenging task. This paper presents a class of high order numerical schemes for approximating the first derivative. These approximations are derived based on solving a special system of equations with some unknown coefficients. The construction method provides numerous types of schemes with different orders of accuracy. The accuracy of each scheme is analyzed by using Fourier analysis, which illustrates the dispersion and dissipation of the scheme. The polynomial technique is used to verify the order of accuracy of the proposed schemes by obtaining the error terms. Dispersion and dissipation errors are calculated

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Formulation and in vitro /in vivo Evaluation of Silymarin Solid Dispersion- Based Topical Gel for Wound Healing
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Silybum marianum, from which silymarin (SM) is extracted, is a medicinal herb. In the Biopharmaceutics Classification System, it is of the class II type, meaning it is almost completely insoluble in water. It has a number of therapeutic properties, including anti-inflammatory as well as properties that promote wound healing.

This research target is to promote the dissolution and solubility of SM by employing a technique called solid dispersion and then incorporating the formula of solid dispersion into a topical gel that can be used for wound healing.

 

Solid dispersion is a technique used to enhance solubility and dissolve pharmaceuticals that are not water-soluble. This method is widely used because of its low cos

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 24 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimate AR(3) by Using Levinson-Durbin Recurrence & Weighted Least Squares Error Methods
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In this study, we investigate about the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model of the third order, by using Levinson-Durbin Recurrence (LDR) and Weighted Least Squares Error ( WLSE ).By generating time series from AR(3) model when the error term for AR(3) is normally and Non normally distributed and when the error term has ARCH(q) model with order q=1,2.We used different samples sizes and the results are obtained by using simulation. In general, we concluded that the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model for both estimation methods (LDR&WLSE), would be by increasing sample size, for all distributions which are considered for the error term , except the lognormal distribution. Also we see that the estimation improve

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Mosul and Haditha Dam Flow Data
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The expansion in water projects implementations in Turkey and Syria becomes of great concern to the workers in the field of water resources management in Iraq. Such expansion with the absence of bi-lateral agreement between the three riparian countries of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; Turkey, Syria and Iraq, is expected to lead to a substantially reduction of water inflow to the territories of Iraq. Accordingly, this study consists of two parts: first part is aiming to study the changes of the water inflow to the territory of Iraq, at Turkey and Syria borders, from 1953 to 2009; the results indicated that the annual mean inflow in Tigris River was decreased from 677 m3/sec to 526 m3/sec, after operating Turkey reserv

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Intelligence framework dust forecasting using regression algorithms models
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<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Recorded Inflow Data of Ataturk Reservoir
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Since the beginning of the last century, the competition for water resources has intensified dramatically, especially between countries that have no agreements in place for water resources that they share. Such is the situation with the Euphrates River which flows through three countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) and represents the main water resource for these countries. Therefore, the comprehensive hydrologic investigation needed to derive optimal operations requires reliable forecasts. This study aims to analysis and create a forecasting model for data generation from Turkey perspective by using the recorded inflow data of Ataturk reservoir for the period (Oct. 1961 - Sep. 2009). Based on 49 years of real inflow data

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