The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
An experimental model is used to simulate the loss of soil lateral confinement due to excavation nearby an individual axially loaded pile. The effects of various parameters, such as the horizontal distance of excavation, depth of excavation and pile slenderness ratios are investigated. The experimental analysis results showed the effect of excavation is more remarkable as the horizontal distance of excavation becomes closer to the pile than half pile length. The effect of excavation diminishes gradually as the horizontal distance increases beyond that distance for all the investigated pile slenderness ratios and depths of excavation. The pile head deflection, settlement and bending moments along pile increase with decreasing horizontal d
... Show MoreIn this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained fo
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The new multidentate Schiff-base (E)-6,6′-((1E,1′E)-(ethane-1,2-diylbis(azan-1-yl-1-ylidene))bis(methan-1-yl-ylidene))bis(4-methyl-2-((E)(pyridine-2-ylmethylimino)methyl)phenol) H2L and its polymeric binuclear metal complexes with Cr(III), Mn(II), Fe(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II) and Hg(II) are reported. The reaction of 2,6-diformyl-4-methyl-phenol with ethylenediamine in mole ratios of 2:1 gave the precursor 3,3′-(1E,1′E)-(ethane-1,2-diylbis(azan-1-yl-1ylidene))bis(methan-1-yl-1-ylidene)bis(2-hydroxy-5-methylbenzaldehyde) W. Condensation of the precursor with 2-(amino-methyl)pyridine in mole ratios of 1:2 gave the new N6O2 multidentate Schiff-base ligand H2L. Upon complex formation, the ligand behaves as a dibasic oct
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Background: Drawing blood to measure total serum bilirubin is painful & time consuming. Transcutaneous bilirubinometer working by multiwavelength spectral reflectance from the skin surface on forehead or upper sternum is a quick & painless technique. Objectives: to compare the effectiveness of transcutaneous (over the upper sternum and forehead) and serum bilirubin measurement of neonate with jaundice. Subjects and Methods: This is a cross sectional prospective study. It enrolled 175 jaundiced neonates & excluded those exposed to phototherapy. It was conducted at Child Central Teaching Hospi |
Young people represent the power and cornerstone of societies and their superiority is linked to their well-being. Their empowerment is as essential as the heart to the body, if it is corrupt, then the whole body is corrupt, and vice versa. The exposure to extremism and pressure from their families leads to violent acts and crimes for obtaining money through unknown organized bodies. This will drive them to fail in their life in an attempt to fulfill their most basic needs, which they have been deprived of by their families, the government, and other institutions. Therefore, governments should provide job opportunities for young people and provide entertainment centers, sports clubs, and family education centers that raise awareness of s
... Show MoreA simple and accurate method to determinate furosemide (FUR) based on converting the secondary amine to primary amine with acidic hydrolysis then azotization by nitrous acid and coupled with resorcinol as a coupling agent in aqueous medium at pH 13. The optical characteristic like beers law limit found to be (0.25-2.5) μg.ml−1, detection and quantification limits (0.0196) (0.0654) μg.ml−1respectivly and Sandel sensitivity was 0.006738 μg.cm−2. The least-square method was used to evaluate the regression equation and the correlation coefficient. The resulted azo dye has a maximum absorbance at 430 nm with light oran
The aim of the present research is to study different protein fractions in sera of children and adolescent with β –thalassemia major and minor and to compare the results with that of healthy control.One hundred fifty children and adolescents were enrolled in this study,including 50 patients with β- thalassemia major , 50 patients with β- thalassemia minor as pathological control group and another apparently 50 healthy individuals as a control group. The age of all studied groups ranged from (4-18)years.Total protein, albumin and immunoglobulins were estimated in sera of all subjects. A Significant decrease was found in the total protein and albumin&nb
... Show MoreThe aerodynamic characteristics of the forward swept wing aircraft have been studied theoretically and experimentally. Low order panel method with the Dirichlet boundary condition have been used to solve the case of the steady, inviscid and compressible flow. Experimentally, a model was manufactured from wood to carry out the tests. The primary objective of the experimental work was the measurements of the wake dimensions and orientation, velocity defect along the wake and the wake thickness. A blower type low speed (open jet) wind tunnel was used in the experimental work. The mean velocity at the test section was (9.3 m/s) and the Reynolds number based on the mean aerodynamic chord and the mean velocity was (0.46x105). The measurements sho
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