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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Building a Training Program on Developing Executive Functions for Kindergarten Children
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Abstract
The research aims to build a training program to develop some executive functions for kindergarten children. To achieve this goal, the two researchers built the program according to the following steps:
1. Determining the general objective of the program.
2. Determining the behavioral objectives of the program.
3. Determining the included content in the program.
4. Implementing the content of the activities of the program.
5. Evaluating the Program.
The program included (12) training activities, the training activities included several items: the title of the activity, the time of implementation of the activity, the general objective of the activity, the procedural behavioral objective, the means and tools u

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison Some of Methods for Estimating Survival Function for Truncated Exponential Distribution
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Exponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.

In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood  methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Sensors
A Modern Approach towards an Industry 4.0 Model: From Driving Technologies to Management
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Every so often, a confluence of novel technologies emerges that radically transforms every aspect of the industry, the global economy, and finally, the way we live. These sharp leaps of human ingenuity are known as industrial revolutions, and we are currently in the midst of the fourth such revolution, coined Industry 4.0 by the World Economic Forum. Building on their guideline set of technologies that encompass Industry 4.0, we present a full set of pillar technologies on which Industry 4.0 project portfolio management rests as well as the foundation technologies that support these pillars. A complete model of an Industry 4.0 factory which relies on these pillar technologies is presented. The full set of pillars encompasses cyberph

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Survey theopinions professional and academics on building the strategy of internal audit function and the possibility of keeping abreast of developments
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The research problem is clearly deficient suffered by the internal audit function in all institutions of Iraq, as a result of the lack of sponsor organizations for this profession and there is no law or local legislation determine its powers and its responsibilities and scope of work As well as the lack of interest of senior management in economic units that function, as it focuses its work on the scope of financial and accounting matters only So required to rebuild this function in line with the current developments as well as the lack of a framework that defines the strategy of this function, and it came the idea of research to find out how to create a regulatory method for re-strategic construction of the internal audit function depen

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Publication Date
Thu May 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Nonparametric Estimator (Histogram) For Estimating Probability Density Function: Nonparametric Estimator (Histogram) For Estimating Probability Density Function
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 In this paper we introduce several estimators for Binwidth of histogram estimators' .We use simulation technique to compare these estimators .In most cases, the results proved that the rule of thumb estimator is better than other estimators.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed Entropy Loss function and application to find Bayesian estimator for Exponential distribution parameter
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The aim of this paper to find Bayes estimator under new loss function assemble between symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, namely, proposed entropy loss function, where this function that merge between entropy loss function and the squared Log error Loss function, which is quite asymmetric in nature. then comparison a the Bayes estimators of exponential distribution under the proposed function, whoever, loss functions ingredient for the proposed function the using a standard mean square error (MSE) and Bias quantity (Mbias), where the generation of the random data using the simulation for estimate exponential distribution parameters different sample sizes (n=10,50,100) and (N=1000), taking initial

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Genetic Algorithm to Estimate the Parameters of the Gumbel Distribution Function by Simulation
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In this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as  the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best  estimator  is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A New Approach to Solving Linear Fractional Programming Problem with Rough Interval Coefficients in the Objective Function
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This paper presents a linear fractional programming problem (LFPP) with rough interval coefficients (RICs) in the objective function. It shows that the LFPP with RICs in the objective function can be converted into a linear programming problem (LPP) with RICs by using the variable transformations. To solve this problem, we will make two LPP with interval coefficients (ICs). Next, those four LPPs can be constructed under these assumptions; the LPPs can be solved by the classical simplex method and used with MS Excel Solver. There is also argumentation about solving this type of linear fractional optimization programming problem. The derived theory can be applied to several numerical examples with its details, but we show only two examples

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building discriminant function for repeated measurements data under compound symmetry (CS) covariance structure and applied in the health field
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Discriminant analysis is a technique used to distinguish and classification an individual to a group among a number of  groups based on a linear combination of a set of relevant variables know discriminant function. In this research  discriminant analysis used to analysis data from repeated measurements design. We  will  deal  with the problem of  discrimination  and  classification in the case of  two  groups by assuming the Compound Symmetry covariance structure  under  the  assumption  of  normality for  univariate  repeated measures data.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Several Nonlinear Estimators for Regression Function
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The aim of this paper is to estimate a nonlinear regression function of the Export of the crude oil Saudi (in Million Barrels) as a function of the number of discovered fields.

 Through studying the behavior of the data we show that its behavior was not followed a linear pattern or can put it in a known form so far there was no possibility to see a general trend resulting from such exports.

We use different nonlinear estimators to estimate a regression function, Local linear estimator, Semi-parametric as well as an artificial neural network estimator (ANN).

The results proved that the (ANN) estimator is the best nonlinear estimator am

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