The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The research problem is clearly deficient suffered by the internal audit function in all institutions of Iraq, as a result of the lack of sponsor organizations for this profession and there is no law or local legislation determine its powers and its responsibilities and scope of work As well as the lack of interest of senior management in economic units that function, as it focuses its work on the scope of financial and accounting matters only So required to rebuild this function in line with the current developments as well as the lack of a framework that defines the strategy of this function, and it came the idea of research to find out how to create a regulatory method for re-strategic construction of the internal audit function depen
... Show MoreThe transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m
... Show MoreDiscriminant analysis is a technique used to distinguish and classification an individual to a group among a number of groups based on a linear combination of a set of relevant variables know discriminant function. In this research discriminant analysis used to analysis data from repeated measurements design. We will deal with the problem of discrimination and classification in the case of two groups by assuming the Compound Symmetry covariance structure under the assumption of normality for univariate repeated measures data.
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Every so often, a confluence of novel technologies emerges that radically transforms every aspect of the industry, the global economy, and finally, the way we live. These sharp leaps of human ingenuity are known as industrial revolutions, and we are currently in the midst of the fourth such revolution, coined Industry 4.0 by the World Economic Forum. Building on their guideline set of technologies that encompass Industry 4.0, we present a full set of pillar technologies on which Industry 4.0 project portfolio management rests as well as the foundation technologies that support these pillars. A complete model of an Industry 4.0 factory which relies on these pillar technologies is presented. The full set of pillars encompasses cyberph
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Research Summary
The doctrine of belief in the Last Day is one of the pillars of faith, and the doctrine of resurrection and reckoning are part of this day.
Belief in the Last Day puts a person in constant control over himself, as this control creates in this person happiness and a decent life, and he renounces the world and turns away from all vices and adorns all virtues.
On the other hand, we find that the person who does not believe in this day does not stand before his eyes anything that prevents him from doing injustices and corruption in the land. The doctrine of belief in the Last Day alone is
... Show MoreIn this paper, the satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) with atmospheric drag perturbation have been studied, where Newton Raphson method to solve Kepler equation for elliptical orbit (i=63 , e = 0.1and 0.5, Ω =30 , ω =100 ) using a new modified model. Equation of motion solved using 4th order Rang Kutta method to determine the position and velocity component which were used to calculate new orbital elements after time step ) for heights (100, 200, 500 km) with (A/m) =0.00566 m2/kg. The results showed that all orbital elements are varies with time, where (a, e, ω, Ω) are increased while (i and M) are decreased its values during 100 rotations.The satellite will fall to earth faster at the lower height and width using big values for ecce
... Show MoreExponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.
In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us
... Show MoreTolerance and its impact on building society
The aim of this paper to find Bayes estimator under new loss function assemble between symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, namely, proposed entropy loss function, where this function that merge between entropy loss function and the squared Log error Loss function, which is quite asymmetric in nature. then comparison a the Bayes estimators of exponential distribution under the proposed function, whoever, loss functions ingredient for the proposed function the using a standard mean square error (MSE) and Bias quantity (Mbias), where the generation of the random data using the simulation for estimate exponential distribution parameters different sample sizes (n=10,50,100) and (N=1000), taking initial
... Show MoreIn this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best estimator is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).