The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
After Zadeh introduced the concept of z-number scientists in various fields have shown keen interest in applying this concept in various applications. In applications of z-numbers, to compare two z-numbers, a ranking procedure is essential. While a few ranking functions have been already proposed in the literature there is a need to evolve some more good ranking functions. In this paper, a novel ranking function for z-numbers is proposed- "the Momentum Ranking Function"(MRF). Also, game theoretic problems where the payoff matrix elements are z-numbers are considered and the application of the momentum ranking function in such problems is demonstrated.
To maintain a sustained competitive position in the contemporary environment of knowledge economy, organizations as an open social systems must have an ability to learn and know how to adapt to rapid changes in a proper fashion so that organizational objectives will be achieved efficiently and effectively. A multilevel approach is adopted proposing that organizational learning suffers from the lack of interest about the strategic competitive performance of the organization. This remains implicit almost in all models of organizational learning and there is little focus on how learning organizations achieve sustainable competitive advantage . A dynamic model that captures t
... Show MoreCassava, a significant crop in Africa, Asia, and South America, is a staple food for millions. However, classifying cassava species using conventional color, texture, and shape features is inefficient, as cassava leaves exhibit similarities across different types, including toxic and non-toxic varieties. This research aims to overcome the limitations of traditional classification methods by employing deep learning techniques with pre-trained AlexNet as the feature extractor to accurately classify four types of cassava: Gajah, Manggu, Kapok, and Beracun. The dataset was collected from local farms in Lamongan Indonesia. To collect images with agricultural research experts, the dataset consists of 1,400 images, and each type of cassava has
... Show MoreThis research studies the effect of adding five different percentages of polymer (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10% of cement weight) on cement mortar's fresh and hardened properties, which was cured at laboratory temperature for 7, 14, and 28 days. Workability increases with increasing polymer. The workability value was lowest (25.6 and 29.4) % in mixtures containing 2% and 4% of (SBR). Increasing polymer ratios significantly decreased mechanical properties (compressive and flexural strength). Therefore, the best results were at 2% SBR and 4% SBR at 28 days of age. An inverse relationship was recorded between the increase in SBR ratios and polymer-modified cement mortar's compressive and flexural strength values. In general, the high
... Show MoreGross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show MoreIn this article, performing and deriving te probability density function for Rayleigh distribution is done by using ordinary least squares estimator method and Rank set estimator method. Then creating interval for scale parameter of Rayleigh distribution. Anew method using is used for fuzzy scale parameter. After that creating the survival and hazard functions for two ranking functions are conducted to show which one is beast.
We have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD)
... Show MoreThe research problem is clearly deficient suffered by the internal audit function in all institutions of Iraq, as a result of the lack of sponsor organizations for this profession and there is no law or local legislation determine its powers and its responsibilities and scope of work As well as the lack of interest of senior management in economic units that function, as it focuses its work on the scope of financial and accounting matters only So required to rebuild this function in line with the current developments as well as the lack of a framework that defines the strategy of this function, and it came the idea of research to find out how to create a regulatory method for re-strategic construction of the internal audit function depen
... Show MoreAbstract
The research aims to build a training program to develop some executive functions for kindergarten children. To achieve this goal, the two researchers built the program according to the following steps:
1. Determining the general objective of the program.
2. Determining the behavioral objectives of the program.
3. Determining the included content in the program.
4. Implementing the content of the activities of the program.
5. Evaluating the Program.
The program included (12) training activities, the training activities included several items: the title of the activity, the time of implementation of the activity, the general objective of the activity, the procedural behavioral objective, the means and tools u
The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m
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