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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Modifications to Accelerate the Iterative Algorithm for the Single Diode Model of PV Model
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This paper discussed the solution of an equivalent circuit of solar cell, where a single diode model is presented. The nonlinear equation of this model has suggested and analyzed an iterative algorithm, which work well for this equation with a suitable initial value for the iterative. The convergence of the proposed method is discussed. It is established that the algorithm has convergence of order six. The proposed algorithm is achieved with a various values of load resistance. Equation by means of equivalent circuit of a solar cell so all the determinations is achieved using Matlab in ambient temperature. The obtained results of this new method are given and the absolute errors is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 02 2024
Journal Name
مجلة جامعة الانبار للعلوم القانونية والسياسية
Sustainable security strategies to confront violent extremism in Iraq after 2017 and their future prospects
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As contemporary security requires the formulation of a comprehensive strategy based on multidimensional sub-strategies (economic, developmental, social, cybersecurity, military,and diplomatic dimensions to achieve so-called sustainable security and address the unconventional challenges that worsened with the turn of the twenty-first century and concerned with violent extremism, often leading to terrorism, Iraq, despite the reversal of the terrorist group ISIS in 2017, seems urgently needed to formulate effective strategies to counter violent extremism, Violent extremism has multiple internal and external reasons. These causes have increased due to local, regional, and international causes. Violent extremist factors began with the outbreak o

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An improved neurogenetic model for recognition of 3D kinetic data of human extracted from the Vicon Robot system
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These days, it is crucial to discern between different types of human behavior, and artificial intelligence techniques play a big part in that.  The characteristics of the feedforward artificial neural network (FANN) algorithm and the genetic algorithm have been combined to create an important working mechanism that aids in this field. The proposed system can be used for essential tasks in life, such as analysis, automation, control, recognition, and other tasks. Crossover and mutation are the two primary mechanisms used by the genetic algorithm in the proposed system to replace the back propagation process in ANN. While the feedforward artificial neural network technique is focused on input processing, this should be based on the proce

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Gross Domestic Product in Saudi Arabia using ARDL model for the period 1993-2019
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This paper analyses the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and gross domestic product (GDP) in Saudi Arabia for the period 1993-2019. Specifically, it measures the effects of interest rate, oil price, inflation rate, budget deficit and money supply on the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The method employs in this paper is based on a descriptive analysis approach and ARDL model through the Bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the research reveal that the budget deficit, oil price and money supply have positive significant effects on GDP, while other variables have no effects on GDP and turned out to be insignificant. The findings suggest that both fiscal and monetary policies should be fo

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Approach Using K-Means Algorithm to Prevent Burst Header Packet Flooding Attack in Optical Burst Switching Network
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Optical burst switching (OBS) network is a new generation optical communication technology. In an OBS network, an edge node first sends a control packet, called burst header packet (BHP) which reserves the necessary resources for the upcoming data burst (DB). Once the reservation is complete, the DB starts travelling to its destination through the reserved path. A notable attack on OBS network is BHP flooding attack where an edge node sends BHPs to reserve resources, but never actually sends the associated DB. As a result the reserved resources are wasted and when this happen in sufficiently large scale, a denial of service (DoS) may take place. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised machine learning approach using k-means algorithm

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparative Study on the Double Prior for Reliability Kumaraswamy Distribution with Numerical Solution
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This work, deals with Kumaraswamy distribution. Kumaraswamy (1976, 1978) showed well known probability distribution functions such as the normal, beta and log-normal but in (1980) Kumaraswamy developed a more general probability density function for double bounded random processes, which is known as Kumaraswamy’s distribution. Classical maximum likelihood and Bayes methods estimator are used to estimate the unknown shape parameter (b). Reliability function are obtained using symmetric loss functions by using three types of informative priors two single priors and one double prior. In addition, a comparison is made for the performance of these estimators with respect to the numerical solution which are found using expansion method. The

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2025
Journal Name
Ieee
Securing Power Microgrids: A Cyber-Physical Approach for Modern Infrastructure
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With the increasing reliance on microgrids as flexible and sustainable solutions for energy distribution, securing decentralized electricity grids requires robust cybersecurity strategies tailored to microgrid-specific vulnerabilities. The research paper focuses on enhancing detection capabilities and response times in the face of coordinated cyber threats in microgrid systems by implementing advanced technologies, thereby supporting decentralized operations while maintaining robust system performance in the presence of attacks. It utilizes advanced power engineering techniques to strengthen cybersecurity in modern power grids. A real-world CPS testbed was utilized to simulate the smart grid environment and analyze the impact of cyberattack

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
New Approach in Detection MAC Spoofing in a WiFi LAN
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Medium Access Control (MAC) spoofing attacks relate to an attacker altering the manufacturer assigned MAC address to any other value. MAC spoofing attacks in Wireless Fidelity (WiFi) network are simple because of the ease of access to the tools of the MAC fraud on the Internet like MAC Makeup, and in addition to that the MAC address can be changed manually without software. MAC spoofing attacks are considered one of the most intensive attacks in the WiFi network; as result for that, many MAC spoofing detection systems were built, each of which comes with its strength and weak points. This paper logically identifies and recognizes the weak points
and masquerading paths that penetrate the up-to-date existing detection systems. Then the

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 12 2003
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Carbon Dioxide Laser Treatment of Viral Warts: A New Approach
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Verrucae vulgares are commonly encountered. The present work is designed in an attempt to build a systematic procedure for treating warts by carbon dioxide laser regarding dose parameters, application parameters and laser safety.
Patients and Methods: The study done in the department of dermatology in Al-Najaf Teaching Hospital in Najaf, Iraq. Forty-two patients completed the study and follow up period for 3 months. Recalcitrant and extensive warts were selected to enter the study. Carbon dioxide laser in a continuous mode, in non-contact application, with 1 mm spot size was used. The patients were divided into two groups. The first group of patients consisted of 60 lesions divided to 6 equal groups, in whom we use different outputs a

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2011
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
A Genetic Algorithm Based Approach For Generating Unit Maintenance Scheduling
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