The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In order to get better understanding of asphalt pavement performance, asphalt from five Iraqi refineries (Qayarah, Nassiriyah, Baiji, Samawah and Daurah) were analyzed into five chemical fractions including asphaltenes, polar compounds, first acidaffins, second acidaffins and saturated hydrocarbons where the last four fractions called maltenes. Polar compounds /saturated hydrocarbons ratio (PC/S) and the ratio of the reactive to the unreactive components of the maltenes fraction (durability rating) parameters were determined. The study showed that Baiji asphalt has the best durability over other asphalts, while Qayarah asphalt is considered to have the least durability grade. These results confirm the correlation of the chemical composit
... Show MoreIn this article, we developed a new loss function, as the simplification of linear exponential loss function (LINEX) by weighting LINEX function. We derive a scale parameter, reliability and the hazard functions in accordance with upper record values of the Lomax distribution (LD). To study a small sample behavior performance of the proposed loss function using a Monte Carlo simulation, we make a comparison among maximum likelihood estimator, Bayesian estimator by means of LINEX loss function and Bayesian estimator using square error loss (SE) function. The consequences have shown that a modified method is the finest for valuing a scale parameter, reliability and hazard functions.
Directing solar panels in a way that collects the largest possible amount of solar energy is still attracting a lot of attention due to the continuous need to get clean, inexpensive renewable energy. Iraq is one of the countries characterized by the abundance of solar energy but the investment in this field has been far below ambition. In this study, an application developed with the visual basic programing language was used to compute precisely various solar angles and parameters , as a powerful tool for engineers and researchers. The outputs of the model were tested and discussed in detail. The air mass values were also computed for three cities: Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. The results showed that the best time
... Show MoreThe global oil market is one of the most important markets in the world and occupies especially for countries consuming and producing countries, and the status of understanding of the mechanism for determining prices in the market help to stand on many factors affecting oil demand and supply of oil and geopolitical factors, climate and alternative sources of energy .. etc. factors, and that the main objective of the research is to study the causes and results left behind by the oil price shocks in the world market, and the movement of these factors be through a cycle of energy that explain the strength of competition between these factors and their effects on prices, when demand increases evolution Large image leads to significan
... Show MoreThis work, deals with Kumaraswamy distribution. Kumaraswamy (1976, 1978) showed well known probability distribution functions such as the normal, beta and log-normal but in (1980) Kumaraswamy developed a more general probability density function for double bounded random processes, which is known as Kumaraswamy’s distribution. Classical maximum likelihood and Bayes methods estimator are used to estimate the unknown shape parameter (b). Reliability function are obtained using symmetric loss functions by using three types of informative priors two single priors and one double prior. In addition, a comparison is made for the performance of these estimators with respect to the numerical solution which are found using expansion method. The
... Show MoreThis paper discussed the solution of an equivalent circuit of solar cell, where a single diode model is presented. The nonlinear equation of this model has suggested and analyzed an iterative algorithm, which work well for this equation with a suitable initial value for the iterative. The convergence of the proposed method is discussed. It is established that the algorithm has convergence of order six. The proposed algorithm is achieved with a various values of load resistance. Equation by means of equivalent circuit of a solar cell so all the determinations is achieved using Matlab in ambient temperature. The obtained results of this new method are given and the absolute errors is demonstrated.
The present study tackles the complex issue of the urgent need for Environmental Auditing (EA) in Iraq in the absence of laws that support environmental management and in the light of the high rates of cancerous diseases in Iraq, which coincided significantly with the increase in oil production, according to the numbers indicated in the Iraqi Ministry of Health. The study aimed to investigate the mediating role of Management Systems (MS) related to the role of EA supporting sustainability reports concerning the reduction of the negative effects of gas emissions from oil companies. We adopted the descriptive approach which relies on studying relationships through a questionnaire that was distributed to a group of workers at Doura Refinery in
... Show MoreConcerns about the environment, the cost of energy, and safety mean that low-energy cold-mix asphalt materials are very interesting as a potential replacement for present-day hot mix asphalt. The main disadvantage of cold bituminous emulsion mixtures is their poor early life strength, meaning they require a long time to achieve mature strength. This research work aims to study the protentional utilization of waste and by-product materials as a filler in cold emulsion mixtures with mechanical properties comparable to those of traditional hot mix asphalt. Accordingly, cold mix asphalt was prepared to utilize paper sludge ash (PSA) and cement kiln dust (CKD) as a substitution for conventional mineral filler with percentages ranging fro
... Show MoreThe UN plans to achieve several development objectives by 2030. These objectives address global warming, a major issue. This method aims to improve sustainable accounting performance (AP). In this circumstance, AI is being applied in various fields, notably in economic, social, and environmental (ESE) domains. This research investigates how sustainable development (SD) influences AI methodologies and AP improvement. The research examined a sample of Iraqi banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2022. AI was measured by ATM and POS prevalence. A three-dimensional approach examined economic, social, and environmental (ESE) sustainability. Meanwhile, the performance of sustainable accounting was measured through the return on asse
... Show More