The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Leading edge serration is now a well-established and effective passive control device for the reduction of turbulence–leading edge interaction noise, and for the suppression of boundary layer separation at high angle of attack. It is envisaged that leading edge blowing could produce the same mechanisms as those produced by a serrated leading edge to enhance the aeroacoustics and aerodynamic performances of aerofoil. Aeroacoustically, injection of mass airflow from the leading edge (against the incoming turbulent flow) can be an effective mechanism to decrease the turbulence intensity, and/or alter the stagnation point. According to classical theory on the aerofoil leading edge noise, there is a potential for the leading edge blowi
... Show MoreThe current Iraqi standard specifications for roads and bridges allowed the prepared Job-Mix Formula for asphalt mixtures to witness some tolerances with regard to the following: coarse aggregate gradation by ± 6.0 %, fine aggregate gradation by ± 4.0 %, filler gradation by ± 2.0 %, asphalt cement content by ± 0.3 % and mixing temperature by ± 15 oC. The objective of this work is to evaluate the behavior of asphalt mixtures prepared by different aggregates gradations (12.5 mm nominal maximum size) that fabricated by several asphalt contents (40-50 grade) and various mixing temperature. All the tolerances specified in the specifications are taken into account, furthermore, the zones beyond these tolerances
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The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the level of functional engagement and hope-based thinking of kindergarten teachers, identify if there is a significant difference in functional engagement and hope-based thinking in terms of specialization and years of service for kindergarten teachers, identify if there is a significant correlation between functional engagement and hope-based thinking of kindergarten teachers. The current research is determined by kindergarten teachers in the Second Rusafa Baghdad Education Directorate for the academic year (2022-2023). In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher prepared a functional engagement scale, which consists of (45) items in three areas: Perceptual and functional engagement
... Show MoreAn experiment was carried out in pots under open field conditions in the fall seasons of 2017 and 2018 at the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad, for improving field emergence and drought stress tolerance in sorghum. Three factors were studied. 1st factor was three cultivars (Inqath, Rabeh and Buhoth70). 2nd factor was primed and unprimed seed. 3rd factor was represented by the irrigation intervals every 2, 4 and 6 days. Randomized complete block design with four replicates was used. The results showed that Buhoth 70 cultivar had a significant superiority compared to others in traits of the first and final count of emergence, emergence energy and emergence rate index (54.2%, 26.7%, 1.747 and 70.7 % d
... Show MoreUndoubtedly, Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) are a major dilemma in term of mortality and morbidity facing the road users as well as the traffic and road authorities. Since 2002, the population in Iraq has increased by 49 percent and the number of vehicles by three folds. Consequently, these increases were unfortunately combined with rising the RTAs number, mortality and morbidity. Alongside the humanitarian tragedies, every year, there are considerable economic losses in Iraq lost due to the epidemic of RTAs. Given the necessity of understanding the contributory factors related to RTAs for the implementation by traffic and road authorities to improve the road safety, the necessity have been a rise for this research which focuses into
... Show MoreThe process of selection assure the objective of receiving for chosen ones to high levels more than other ways , and the problem of this research came by these inquires (what is the variables of limits we must considered when first preliminaries selections for mini basket ? and what is the proper test that suits this category ? and is there any standards references it can be depend on it ?) also the aims of this research that knowing the limits variables to basketball mini and their tests as a indicators for preliminaries for mini basketball category in ages (9-12) years and specifies standards (modified standards degrees in following method) to tests results to some limits variables for research sample. Also the researchers depends on (16)
... Show MoreBackground: The American Joint committee on Cancer in their 8th edition staging manual regarded perineural invasion as one of the most important prognostic factors for Lip and Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma, it also incorporated tumor depth of invasion in defining tumor size category in the new staging system. This study was conducted to evaluate the frequency of perineural invasion in oral squamous cell carcinoma and the effect of approaching tumor depth in this process. Materials and Methods: fifty-four formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue blocks of radical resections of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma were cut and stained with Hematoxylin and Eosin stain, then evaluated for perineural invasion, with estimation of tumor depth of i
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