The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Summary
This research is included in the study of one of the most important rules of jurisprudence, which is (necessity descends the status of necessity, controls and applications) branching from the major rule (hardship brings facilitation) and since the jurisprudential rule is defined as knowledge of a total or majority rule that applies to all its parts. He has to know all the branches that fall under him, which leads to understanding Sharia, controlling jurisprudential issues and linking them to its rules, so that no contradiction occurs, and he has the jurisprudential faculty that he promotes in consideration and diligence. And what is meant by need: is what is lacking in terms of expansion and raising the distress that often lea
The term of ability (Al qoudra) is of the common terms which used by speech scientists to relate to one of the important verbal issues which called “Fate and destiny”. the issues of fate and destiny has been raised by Muslims since the dawn of Islam and It was researched among speech scientists, there are many opinions about this issues as the man can do or leave anything or he forced to do something that mean he hasn’t ability.
Also the term was used by jurists and they mention to the ability conditions (Assigning the Divine) and when this conditions are not available that means the man is not commissioning, the conditions are Mind, puberty and other conditions which mentioned in the books of jurisp
... Show MoreThe current research involves psychological pressure (educational,environment andemotionly) for secondary level to 2013-2014.This research includes comparison among students who are trained and not trained in physical education .The sample is(126) students from each gender from first education.Al-Karkh and the research found out that physical education has an effect in lessing emotional and educational in a big degree in student in secondary which affect them positively in their study. &n
... Show MoreThis paper studies the effect of contact areas on the transient response of mechanical structures. Precisely, it investigates replacing the ordinary beam of a structure by two beams of half the thickness, which are joined by bolts. The response of these beams is controlled by adjusting the tightening of the connecting bolts and hence changing the magnitude of the induced frictional force between the two beams which affect the beams damping capacity. A cantilever of two beams joined together by bolts has been investigated numerically and experimentally. The numerical analysis was performed using ANSYS-Workbench version 17.2. A good agreement between the numerical and experimental results has been obtained. In general, results s
... Show MoreInsurance companies seeking to develop programs to promote and market their services and to increase its customer through the use of modern technical marketing and reduce its dependence on agents and take advantage of work of the banks by alliances with them and including reinforcing get the parties to competitive advantages in the financial market , the insurance services intangible service stops marketed over the insurance awareness and requires exceptional promotional efforts. &nbs
... Show MoreThe research seeks to find the relationship between psychological flow and futuristic thinking among postgraduate students. To this end, the researchers have made up two scales: one scale to measure the psychological flow which consisted of (32) items and the other to measure the futuristic thinking included (39) items which were distributed into three domains. As to collect the required data, the two scales had applied on a sample comprised (200) postgraduate students. The findings revealed that there is a correlation between psychological flow and futuristic thinking. The researcher recommended the coming studies take the relationship between psychological flow and psychological happiness.
The field of structural optimization (optimal design) has grown rapidly over the past decades with many different optimization methods that could be used to produce a structure of minimum weight. This research deals with two aspects, in the first, a general numerical technique based on the finite element analysis and it suggests to investigate the preliminary behavior of metal stiffened plate under action of static load environment. The technique was included a finite element model of the structures using high- order isoparimetric plate elements to be used to create a certain models to obtain their optimum design. The models are characterized such that, each model is builded using different types of stiffener configuration. The second as
... Show MoreClimate change, together with terrorism, economic depressions, and mass-destructive weaponry, is a source of international phobia for many people. The advancement in technology increases the competition among world powers and economic systems to develop their industrial enterprises. The smoke that emits from the factories, the pollution caused by the industrial projects, the excessive use of green gas result in the increase of global warming and have catastrophic effects on the ecosphere of the planet. Besides, man’s wrong practices even in agricultural matters are exhausting the natural resources of the lands, and they badly affect the ecological diversity and the wellbeing of the humans and non-humans alike. Contemporary feminis
... Show MoreThe international system that established the United Nations after the end of the Second World War witnessed many changes. These changes overshadowed the nature of the work of the international organization, especially its first and most important executive organ (the Security Council). This has sometimes weakened and dulled the Security Council's role in performing the tasks stipulated in the Charter of the Organization, which has led the Organization itself to work on reforms within it in general and to seek reforms in the Security Council in particular. Academic and advisory efforts were made to submit proposals for amendment to be reflected on the Council's performance effectiveness.