The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc
... Show MoreThe conservatorship is a legal action to protect troubled banks from credit risk and bankruptcy risk that banks cannot hedge them .The Central Bank role has to protect the financial system from these risks by controlling and supervising. This research studied these risks and explained the role of The Central Bank. This research presented and analyzed the legal framework for supervision and the imposition of conservatorship bank to address the effects that have been achieved as a result of poor management and weak internal controls. Baraka Bank for Investment and Finance was a research sample to measure the financial ratios for the troubled bank, and analysis the results that led to put the conservatorship. The research depends on the hyp
... Show MoreThe ground state densities of unstable neutron-rich 11Li and 12Be exotic nuclei are studied in the framework of the binary cluster model (BCM). The internal densities of the clusters are described by the single particle harmonic oscillator wave functions. The long tail performance is clearly noticed in the calculated neutron and matter density distributions of these nuclei. The structures of the two valence neutrons in 11Li and 12Be are found to be mixed configurations with dominant (1p1/2)2. Elastic electron scattering proton form factors for 11Li and 12Be are studied using the plane wave Born approximation (PWBA). It is found that the major difference between the calculated form factors of unstable nuclei [11Li, 12Be] and those of stab
... Show MoreBackground: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe
... Show More<span lang="EN-US">The need for robotics systems has become an urgent necessity in various fields, especially in video surveillance and live broadcasting systems. The main goal of this work is to design and implement a rover robotic monitoring system based on raspberry pi 4 model B to control this overall system and display a live video by using a webcam (USB camera) as well as using you only look once algorithm-version five (YOLOv5) to detect, recognize and display objects in real-time. This deep learning algorithm is highly accurate and fast and is implemented by Python, OpenCV, PyTorch codes and the Context Object Detection Task (COCO) 2020 dataset. This robot can move in all directions and in different places especially in
... Show MoreThe hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s
... Show MoreThe study aims at:
1- Identifying the contemporary educational approaches in teaching arts.
2- The effectiveness of using the visual thinking strategy in photography subject for the first year students in the institute of fine arts/Holy city of Kadhimiyah.
The study sample is made of (30 ) first year students (in the institute of fine arts/in Holy city of Kadhimiyah) distributed into two groups, an experimental group made of (15) students and a control group having the same number of students in order to conduct the test. The test for the visual thinking strategy in the subject of photography has been designed and the validity and reliability for the research tool have been verified. In order to demonstrate the results of the
The wind atlas analysis and application program, WAsP, is used to assess wind
energy potential، wind climate from geostrophic winds of a given area. In this paper,
metrological data from Ali Algharby station was used to predict the wind resource
and wind turbine energy production at Ali Algharby site.
Data from metrological station was used to draw up observed wind climates at the
anemometer site. Site contour map was digitized using WAsP Map Editortool.
Observed wind climate, digitized contour map, terrain roughness length, obstacle
groups and their porosity were used as input to the WAsP model. Vestas V182, 1.65
MW turbine was used. Weibull probability distribution graph of wind speed, power
density were dra
In this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
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