The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The present research aims to identify thecorrelation between cognitive motivation andthe trend towards the teaching profession among students of the Department of Chemistry in theFaculty of Education for Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham, as well as to identify the differences in the relationship according to the variable type (male, female). The measures of cognitive motivation and the trend towards the teaching profession were applied, using pearson's correlation coefficient,t-testfor one sample, andthe t-test of two separate samples.
Abstract :
The research aims to diagnose some of the negative phenomena
( Counterfiting , Pettifogging , Embezzlement ) that have been detected over the past ( 2010 – 2014 ), a fixed-term part of the national strategy for the fight against corruption launched by the Joint Council for the fight against corruption in Iraq and measuring the application of government control according to the American standard GAO standards and identifying the potential for the application of those standards gap. It has been collecting data and information of special issues of corruption reports and meeting with (42) employees and the use of a checklist has been prepared for thi
: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier mod
... Show MoreThese deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .
The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank. &nbs
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identifying the values of some physical and Bio- Kinematic variables during the performance of the jump spike serve skill, and identifying the effect of the proposed training program using intermittent training to develop some physical and Bio- Kinematic variables and accuracy of the jump spike serve skill among the research sample. The experimental method was used and the research was conducted on a deliberately chosen sample of the players of the Army Club, who were primarily advanced in volleyball, and the number of the sample was (10) players. The conclusions were reached that the proposed training program using intermittent training has a positive effect on some of the physical and Bio- Kinematic variabl
... Show MoreThis competition between competing forces, organized into axes with conflicting objectives, is reflected in all regional affairs and the goals and interests of countries within them, including Iraq. Among the most important aspects impacted by the repercussions of international and regional competition in the region is Iraqi national security, based on its vital importance in preserving the sovereignty and entity of the Iraqi state, protecting the interests and cohesion of the state and people, ensuring and defending their present and future, and interacting with various regional and international activities. The Kurdistan Region, as an important part of Iraq with its own unique characteristics, may be one of the most important regi
... Show MoreThe current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand
... Show MoreThe subject of social capital is of great importance, as it provides an analytical framework for researchers interested in understanding the impact of the Internet on many dimensions of human and social life. And because social networking sites have infiltrated societies and produced new variables at the level of human and social communication, this study came to examine the relationship between the use of the social networking site Facebook and the accumulation of social capital among a sample of University of Algeria 3 students, by researching the variables of intensity of use and patterns of use as independent variables and their relationship to social capital. The results of the field study revealed a strong relationship between the
... Show MoreBackground: Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukins play important roles in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Genetic research has been employed to find many of the missing connections between genetic risk variations and causal genetic components. Objective: The goal of this study is to look at the genetic variations of TNF-α and interleukins in Iraqi RA patients and see how they relate to disease severity or response to biological therapy. Method: Using specific keywords, the authors conducted a systematic and comprehensive search to identify relevant Iraqi studies examining the genetic variations of TNF-α and interleukins in Iraqi RA patients and how they relate to disease severity or response to biolo
... Show Moreعند إطلالتنا على هذا البلد العربي لابد من التقصي ولو بعجاله عن اقتصاده وهو الاهم باعتبار ان الاقتصاد هو شريان الحياة لأي أمة فلا غنى ولا تهاون في نفس الوقت عن هذا الجانب المهم الذي يرتبط مدى تطوره بتطور البلد وهذا الاخير مرتبط بما متوفر لديه من موارد بشريه ومادية وان تفاوتت النسبة بينها فلا ضير في ذلك فالاهم هو وجود الموجه والمخطط بالاتجاه الصحيح نحو الاستغلال الامثل لهذه الموارد
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