The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This article examines and proposes a dietary chain model with a prey shelter and alternative food sources. It is anticipated that mid-predators' availability is positively correlated with the number of refuges. The solution's existence and exclusivity are examined. It is established that the solution is bounded. It is explored whether all potential equilibrium points exist and are locally stable. The Lyapunov approach is used to investigate the equilibrium points' worldwide stability. Utilizing a Sotomayor theorem application, local bifurcation is studied. Numerical simulation is used to better comprehend the dynamics of the model and define the control set of parameters.
The researcher attempts to examine Barman model in acquiring the historical concepts among fourth-grade students at literary classrooms. To this end, the researcher held the null hypothesis, there is no significant difference between the experimental groups who was taught based on Barman model and the control group that taught based on the traditional method in acquiring the historical concepts on the post-test. To testify the effectiveness of Barman model, the researcher administered a questionnaire included (60) items on bunch of female-students who were selected from al-khamaeal preparatory school in al-hurriyah district in Baghdad. The author utilized different statistical tools to analyze the collected data. &
... Show MoreIn this study, the stress-strength model R = P(Y < X < Z) is discussed as an important parts of reliability system by assuming that the random variables follow Invers Rayleigh Distribution. Some traditional estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters namely; Maximum Likelihood, Moment method, and Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased estimator and Shrinkage estimator using three types of shrinkage weight factors. As well as, Monte Carlo simulation are used to compare the estimation methods based on mean squared error criteria.
This work is devoted to study the properties of the ground states such as the root-mean square ( ) proton, charge, neutron and matter radii, nuclear density distributions and elastic electron scattering charge form factors for Carbon Isotopes (9C, 12C, 13C, 15C, 16C, 17C, 19C and 22C). The calculations are based on two approaches; the first is by applying the transformed harmonic-oscillator (THO) wavefunctions in local scale transformation (LST) to all nuclear subshells for only 9C, 12C, 13C and 22C. In the second approach, the 9C, 15C, 16C, 17C and 19C isotopes are studied by dividing the whole nuclear system into two parts; the first is the compact core part and the second is the halo part. The core and halo parts are studied using the
... Show MoreFollowing model educational offenders in collection and Alasbaka of fifth grade students preparatory in history A. M. Dr Prepared by: Dr. Bashaer Mawloud Tawfeeq, The Center of Educational and Psychological Studies Baghdad University - There is no difference statistically significant at the 0.05 level of significance between the average scores of the following students studying using model and offenders and who are studying in the usual manner (traditional) in the collection - There is no difference statistically significant at the 0.05 level of significance between the mean scores for the following students studying using model and offenders and who are studying in the usual manner (traditional) in retention Find limits: Current search
... Show MoreGenerally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the
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Characterized by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) on Maximum Likelihood for the greatest possible way that the exact moments are known , which means that it can be found, while the other method they are unknown, but approximations to their biases correct to 0(n-1) can be obtained by standard methods. In our research expressions for approximations to the biases of the ML estimators (the regression coefficients and scale parameter) for linear (type 1) Extreme Value Regression Model for Largest Values are presented by using the advanced approach depends on finding the first derivative, second and third.
Abstract:
The aim of the research is to evaluate the practice of banking departments for strategic foresight represented by its dimensions (environmental scanning, future vision, scenarios, reconfiguration) and its relationship to the organizational brilliance represented by dimensions (brilliance of leadership, brilliance of service and innovation, brilliance of knowledge, brilliance of employees), as the research was applied in A number of private Iraqi commercial banks represented by (Baghdad, Iraqi Investment, Iraqi Middle East Investment, Commercial Gulf, Ashur International Investment, Al Mansour Investment, Via Iraq Invest
... Show MoreThe research aimed to study the job satisfaction of the staff of the Federal board of supreme Audit and its relation to the effectiveness of their performance, The questionnaire was adopted as a main tool in the collection of data and information from a random sample of (54) employees of the Federal board of supreme Audit. In light of this, the data were collected and analyzed and the hypotheses were tested using the statistical program (SPSS).
The researchers reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which were: (1) the respondents' response to the variables of job satisfaction and the effectiveness of the performance were medium; (2) there was a significant relationship between job satisfaction and performance effe
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