The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The letter is defined as a message directed by the sender to another party, the future. The aim is to convey, clarify or explain a particular point or subject, and in the form of direct oral communication through speech that contains a set of words and words, The future can discuss the sender directly to exchange ideas with each other, or it may be written and in this case does not require direct interaction between the matchmaker and the recipient. As a result of the different sources and topics of the discourse, and the different types of categories addressed to the speech, and the number, it has been divided into several types.
And schools of discourse analysis emerged in the early eighties of the last century and has spread and ha
Start your abstract here the objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behaviour of an eco-epidemiological system. A prey-predator model involving infectious disease with refuge for prey population only, the (SI_) infectious disease is transmitted directly, within the prey species from external sources of the environment as well as, through direct contact between susceptible and infected individuals. Linear type of incidence rate is used to describe the transmission of infectious disease. While Holling type II of functional responses are adopted to describe the predation process of the susceptible and infected predator respectively. This model is represented mathematically by
In order to obtain a mixed model with high significance and accurate alertness, it is necessary to search for the method that performs the task of selecting the most important variables to be included in the model, especially when the data under study suffers from the problem of multicollinearity as well as the problem of high dimensions. The research aims to compare some methods of choosing the explanatory variables and the estimation of the parameters of the regression model, which are Bayesian Ridge Regression (unbiased) and the adaptive Lasso regression model, using simulation. MSE was used to compare the methods.
The Nuclear structure of 110-116Cd isotopes was studied theoretically in the framework of the interacting boson model of IBM-l and IBM-2. The properties of the lowest mixed symmetry states such as the 1+, 2+ and 3+ levels produced by the IBM-2 model in the vibrational-limit U(5) of Cd - isotopes are studied in details. This analysis shows that the character of mixed symmetry of 2+ is shared between and states in 110-114Cd – isotopes, the large shar goes to s, while in isotope, the state is declared as a mixed symmetry state without sharing. This identification is confirmed by the percentage of F-spin contribution. The electromagnetic properties of E2 and Ml operators were investigated and the results were analyzed. Various
... Show MoreAn optimization calculation is made to find the optimum properties of combined quadrupole lens which consists of electrostatic and magnetic lens. Both chromatic and spherical aberration coefficients are reduced to minimum values and the achromatic aberration is found for many cases. These calculations are achieved with the aid of transfer matrices method and using rectangular model of field distribution, where the path of charged-particles beam traversing the field has been determined by solving the trajectory equation of motion and then the optical properties for lens have been computed with the aid of the beam trajectory along the lens axis. The computations have been concentrated on determining the chromatic and spher
... Show MoreBackground: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe
... Show MoreIn this paper, we established a mathematical model of an SI1I2R epidemic disease with saturated incidence and general recovery functions of the first disease I1. Considering the basic reproduction number, we obtained conditions for both disease-free and co-existing cases. The equilibrium points local stability is verified by using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, while for the global stability, we used a suitable Lyapunov function to analyze the endemic spread of the positive equilibrium point. Moreover, we carried out the local bifurcation around both equilibrium points (disease-free and co-existing), where we obtained that the disease-free equilibrium point undergoes a transcritical bifurcation. We conduct numerical simulations that suppo
... Show MoreThe research aims at identifying The Effect of Woods model in the Acquisition of Grammatical Concepts on students at the Sixth Primary. The total number of students is (49) male and female. students are distributed in two groups . The First group is the experimental group which is taught the( Woods Model) and it is (25) students . The second group is the control group which is taught according to the traditional method of teaching and it is (24) students . The researcher has matched between the two groups by the following variables : the age (in months), their intelligence, their parents, academic level of education . The research has constructed multiple choice test of (20) items . The reliability of The test has been calculated and it
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