The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The strategies of knowledge management have became the basis in the promotion of core competencies. Therefore gained an increasing prominence. This led the administrations of organizations to work to effectiveness of there strategies, which results to build there core competences through teamwork, empowerment and personal effectiveness of employees. From this arises research problem about the organizations leaders recognize extent of knowledge management strategies which that lead to core competence. In addition the research tray definition the relation and nature of affect between its variables. The research was carried on sample (72) managers from board of supreme audit in Iraq and used statistical tools and methods.
... Show MoreThe education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity
... Show MoreSeveral stress-strain models were used to predict the strengths of steel fiber reinforced concrete, which are distinctive of the material. However, insufficient research has been done on the influence of hybrid fiber combinations (comprising two or more distinct fibers) on the characteristics of concrete. For this reason, the researchers conducted an experimental program to determine the stress-strain relationship of 30 concrete samples reinforced with two distinct fibers (a hybrid of polyvinyl alcohol and steel fibers), with compressive strengths ranging from 40 to 120 MPa. A total of 80% of the experimental results were used to develop a new empirical stress-strain model, which was accomplished through the application of the parti
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Abstract
The use of modern scientific methods and techniques, is considered important topics to solve many of the problems which face some sector, including industrial, service and health. The researcher always intends to use modern methods characterized by accuracy, clarity and speed to reach the optimal solution and be easy at the same time in terms of understanding and application.
the research presented this comparison between the two methods of solution for linear fractional programming models which are linear transformation for Charnas & Cooper , and denominator function restriction method through applied on the oil heaters and gas cookers plant , where the show after reac
... Show MoreThe objectives of the study were to identify the incidence rate and characteristics of adverse drug events (ADEs) in nursing homes (NHs) using the ADE trigger tool and to evaluate the relationships between resident and facility work system factors and incidence of ADEs using the System Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model. The study used 2 observational quantitative methods, retrospective resident chart extraction, and surveys. The participating staff included Directors of nursing, registered nurses, certified nurse assistants (CNAs). Data were collected from fall 2016 to spring 2017 from 11 NHs in 9 cities in Iowa. Binary logistic regression with generalized estimated equations was used to measure the association
... Show MoreAfter this systematic presentation of the phenomenon of rotation of formulas, ie the construction of the verb and the verb, and the narrated narratives therein differed among the readers, it became clear to us how the difference was clear between reading and the other, and how readers have varied in their readings of the verb, As we have noted through our modest research that the phenomenon of building the verb for the actor and the effect have included the act of both past and present tense, and not limited to a specific time, and this difference in reading was not limited to a particular environment, but beyond To more than one environment This is evidenced by the readings of various readers from the environment of Kufa, Basra, Mecca,
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Codes of red, green, and blue data (RGB) extracted from a lab-fabricated colorimeter device were used to build a proposed classifier with the objective of classifying colors of objects based on defined categories of fundamental colors. Primary, secondary, and tertiary colors namely red, green, orange, yellow, pink, purple, blue, brown, grey, white, and black, were employed in machine learning (ML) by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm using Python. The classifier, which was based on the ANN algorithm, required a definition of the mentioned eleven colors in the form of RGB codes in order to acquire the capability of classification. The software's capacity to forecast the color of the code that belongs to an ob
... Show MoreIn this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
... Show MoreThe organizational integration forms a necessity according to McKinsey model, especially for service organizations. In the context of various service sector developments, importance adoption of compact mechanisms by these organizations to upgrade their services has increased and senior management must be more aware of environmental, competitive and developmental requirements. It gets more important when it shows in an organization seeking at excellence of making services within its policies and strategies. Subject organizational integration dimensions (strategy, structure, systems, style, staff, shared values, and skills) are effective components in directing behaviors of employees and organization. This motivated both researcher
... Show MoreThe sustainable environmental neighborhoods is sustainable development of neighborhoods that include considerations related to transport, density, urban forms, and environmental buildings and especially those related to social and functional integration, and civil society participation, This standard, which did not attract the attention of specialists in the 1990s, has today become a center of attention for all those interested in urbanism and sustainability. The problem of the research is the existence of urban problems in residential neighborhoods that lead to lack of sustainability in the city, and the research aims to explain the role and importance of environmental sustainability