The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
After this systematic presentation of the phenomenon of rotation of formulas, ie the construction of the verb and the verb, and the narrated narratives therein differed among the readers, it became clear to us how the difference was clear between reading and the other, and how readers have varied in their readings of the verb, As we have noted through our modest research that the phenomenon of building the verb for the actor and the effect have included the act of both past and present tense, and not limited to a specific time, and this difference in reading was not limited to a particular environment, but beyond To more than one environment This is evidenced by the readings of various readers from the environment of Kufa, Basra, Mecca,
... Show More
Abstract
The use of modern scientific methods and techniques, is considered important topics to solve many of the problems which face some sector, including industrial, service and health. The researcher always intends to use modern methods characterized by accuracy, clarity and speed to reach the optimal solution and be easy at the same time in terms of understanding and application.
the research presented this comparison between the two methods of solution for linear fractional programming models which are linear transformation for Charnas & Cooper , and denominator function restriction method through applied on the oil heaters and gas cookers plant , where the show after reac
... Show MoreThe electoral poster is the most important means and methods of the electoral campaign because of its advantages and capabilities if it is organized properly. It is an intensive propaganda message with psychological figures and semiotic connotations belonging to sub-culture. Its construction depends on a group of elements (logo, photo symbols, color and picture) and their consistency is varying from one to another. Posters must be committed the determinants of attraction, excitement, simplicity and clarity. They are working according to the following base: (fixed audience X moved recipients) and walking towards (moving X moving) due to the technical development of optical screens. These developments require double the force of the impact
... Show MoreAbstract
Objectives: The study aims to: (1) Find out the relationship among participants’ age, body mass index (BMI), and Health Belief Model (HBM) related to colorectal examinations among graduate students. (2) Investigate the differences in Health Belief Model constructs between the groups of age, gender, marital status, and education level among graduate students.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study design which conducted in the College of Fine Arts – University of Baghdad. A convenience sample of 80 graduate students were included in this study. The data were collected by using a self-reported questionnaire which consisted of two parts (I) socio-demographic characteristics (II) Colorectal Cancer Screening Beliefs
This paper addresses the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices, in real market and financial sector. In order to prepare the analytical background for further investigation, it highlights the patterns of correlations of the real oil price and the most related prices of assets, exchange rate and government bond yield. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil price, quantities and the global macroeconomic environment. Topics discussed include the theory of differential rent and scarcity effect ,the role of future market and speculation, strategies of energy of the major economies to investigate the prospects of oil market and the potential demand for OPEC's oil. The paper explores the
... Show MoreThe education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity
... Show MoreThe objectives of the study were to identify the incidence rate and characteristics of adverse drug events (ADEs) in nursing homes (NHs) using the ADE trigger tool and to evaluate the relationships between resident and facility work system factors and incidence of ADEs using the System Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model. The study used 2 observational quantitative methods, retrospective resident chart extraction, and surveys. The participating staff included Directors of nursing, registered nurses, certified nurse assistants (CNAs). Data were collected from fall 2016 to spring 2017 from 11 NHs in 9 cities in Iowa. Binary logistic regression with generalized estimated equations was used to measure the association
... Show MoreSeveral stress-strain models were used to predict the strengths of steel fiber reinforced concrete, which are distinctive of the material. However, insufficient research has been done on the influence of hybrid fiber combinations (comprising two or more distinct fibers) on the characteristics of concrete. For this reason, the researchers conducted an experimental program to determine the stress-strain relationship of 30 concrete samples reinforced with two distinct fibers (a hybrid of polyvinyl alcohol and steel fibers), with compressive strengths ranging from 40 to 120 MPa. A total of 80% of the experimental results were used to develop a new empirical stress-strain model, which was accomplished through the application of the parti
... Show MoreIn this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
... Show More