Preferred Language
Articles
/
bsj-7489
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
...Show More Authors

The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

Scopus Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Word Cloud Model based on Hate Speech in an Online Social Media Environment
...Show More Authors

Social media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (5)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Planning sustainable environmental neighborhoods is a step towards the direction of sustainable cities
...Show More Authors
Abstract<p>The sustainable environmental neighborhoods is sustainable development of neighborhoods that include considerations related to transport, density, urban forms, and environmental buildings and especially those related to social and functional integration, and civil society participation, This standard, which did not attract the attention of specialists in the 1990s, has today become a center of attention for all those interested in urbanism and sustainability. The problem of the research is the existence of urban problems in residential neighborhoods that lead to lack of sustainability in the city, and the research aims to explain the role and importance of environmental sustainability</p> ... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (2)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
...Show More Authors

Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Australian Journal Of Mathematical Analysis And Applications
Formulation of approximate mathematical model for incoming water to some dams on Tigris and Euphrates Rivers using spline function
...Show More Authors

n this paper, we formulate three mathematical models using spline functions, such as linear, quadratic and cubic functions to approximate the mathematical model for incoming water to some dams. We will implement this model on dams of both rivers; dams on the Tigris are Mosul and Amara while dams on the Euphrates are Hadetha and Al-Hindya.

View Publication
Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Cyperus esculentus on Sperm Function Parameters in Prepubertal Mice as a Model for Human
...Show More Authors

The objective of this work was to study the effect of oral administration of Cyperus esculentus (CE) and its alcoholic extract on sperm function parameters in prepubertal mice as a model for human .The animals were divided into three groups each contains 6 animals .Group 1 was treated with 150 mg/ kg body weight /day of crude CE, group 2 was treated with same dose of alcohol extract of CE and group 3 regarded as control throughout six weeks period. The results showed a significant (p> 0.05) increase in the mean of sperm concentration ,sperm motility percent and progressive sperm motility between treated groups and control . There was no differences among groups in the mean of sperm normal morphology and sperm viability . No significa

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (2)
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model
...Show More Authors

The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (6)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Laplace Distribution And Probabilistic (bi) In Linear Programming Model
...Show More Authors

The theory of probabilistic programming  may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, pro­duction and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Dynamics of Predator-prey Model under Fluctuation Rescue Effect
...Show More Authors

This paper presents a novel idea as it investigates the rescue effect of the prey with fluctuation effect for the first time to propose a modified predator-prey model that forms a non-autonomous model. However, the approximation method is utilized to convert the non-autonomous model to an autonomous one by simplifying the mathematical analysis and following the dynamical behaviors. Some theoretical properties of the proposed autonomous model like the boundedness, stability, and Kolmogorov conditions are studied. This paper's analytical results demonstrate that the dynamic behaviors are globally stable and that the rescue effect improves the likelihood of coexistence compared to when there is no rescue impact. Furthermore, numerical simul

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (1)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Integrated Geophysical Data and GIS Technique to Forecast the Potential Groundwater Locations in Part of South Eastern Nigeria
...Show More Authors

     The objective of this research is to select the most suitable drilling location of new groundwater exploration wells, with a decision-making tool from Geographic Information System (GIS). The optimum location will be evaluated base on the hydro-geoelectrical parameter derived from Vertical Electrical Sound (VES) including Longitudinal Conductance, the thickness of the aquifer, the apparent resistivity and Transmissivity. From the Geo-electrical method (VES) the finds shows that the aquifers in the study area have Apparent Resistivity ranging from 0.32 to 40.24 Ωm, Thickness between 0.21 m to 15.06 m, Longitudinal Conductance ranging from 0.006 to 10.246Ω-1 and Transmissivity ranging from 0.14 to

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (21)
Crossref (16)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jan 14 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Nonlinear MIMO-PID Neural Controller Design for Vehicle Lateral Dynamics model based on Modified Elman Neural Network
...Show More Authors

This paper presents a new design of a nonlinear multi-input multi-output PID neural controller of the active brake steering force and the active front steering angle for a 2-DOF vehicle model based on modified Elman recurrent neural. The goal of this work is to achieve the stability and to improve the vehicle dynamic’s performance through achieving the desired yaw rate and reducing the lateral velocity of the vehicle in a minimum time period for preventing the vehicle from slipping out the road curvature by using two active control actions: the front steering angle and the brake steering force. Bacterial forging optimization algorithm is used to adjust the parameters weights of the proposed controller. Simulation resul

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF