The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The present study aims to present a proposed realistic and comprehensive cyber strategy for the Communications Directorate for the next five years (2022-2026) based on the extent of application and documentation of cybersecurity measures in the Directorate and the scientific bases formulating the strategy. The present study is significant in that it provides an accurate diagnosis of the capabilities of the cyber directorate in terms of strengths and weaknesses in its internal environment and the opportunities and threats that surround it in the external environment, based on the results of the assessment of the reality of cybersecurity according to the global Cybersecurity index, which provides a strong basis for building its strategic dire
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of listening to music or Quran in reducing cancer patients’ anxiety before chemotherapy administration. Reducing anxiety in people with cancer, prior to chemotherapy administration, is a crucial goal in nursing care.
An experimental comparative study was conducted.
A simple randomization sampling method was applied. Two hundred thirty‐eight people with cancer who underwent chemotherapy were participated. They are assigned as Quran, music and control groups.
The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff
... Show MoreThis paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th
... Show MoreChallenges facing the transition of traditional cities to smart: Studying the challenges faced by the transition of a traditional area such as Al-Kadhimiya city center to the smart style
When searching for an answer to the following question: What are the reasons for the reluctance of female physical education teachers in secondary schools to referee sports competitions according to the variable of years of service? It was found that the research aimed to reveal the differences between the opinions of the research sample of physical education teachers in secondary schools (girls) about refereeing sports competitions according to the variable of years of service. To achieve the research goal, it is assumed that there are significant differences between the average opinions of the research sample of female teachers and their reluctance and the reasons for the differences in the practice of refereeing sports competitions accor
... Show MoreNovel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twentyfour samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.
An analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.
A Novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twentyfour samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.