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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 05 2012
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية الأساسية/ جامعة بابل / بحوث المؤتمر العلمي الرابع لكلية التربية الأساسية/جامعة بابل 2011 م
THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF THE SHELL NEBULAE BY USING INTERACTING WIND MODEL
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation of the Standard Atmospheric Earth Model Parameters at 86 km Altitude
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     Utilizing the Turbo C programming language, the atmospheric earth model is created from sea level to 86 km. This model has been used to determine atmospheric Earth parameters in this study. Analytical derivations of these parameters are made using the balancing forces theory and the hydrostatic equation. The effects of altitude on density, pressure, temperature, gravitational acceleration, sound speed, scale height, and molecular weight are examined. The mass of the atmosphere is equal to about 50% between sea level and 5.5 km. g is equal to 9.65 m/s2 at 50 km altitude, which is 9% lower than 9.8 m/s2 at sea level. However, at 86 km altitude, g is close to 9.51 m/s2, which is close to 15% smaller than 9.8 m/s2.  These resu

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Time and finance optimization model for multiple construction projects using genetic algorithm
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Abstract<p>Construction contractors usually undertake multiple construction projects simultaneously. Such a situation involves sharing different types of resources, including monetary, equipment, and manpower, which may become a major challenge in many cases. In this study, the financial aspects of working on multiple projects at a time are addressed and investigated. The study considers dealing with financial shortages by proposing a multi-project scheduling optimization model for profit maximization, while minimizing the total project duration. Optimization genetic algorithm and finance-based scheduling are used to produce feasible schedules that balance the finance of activities at any time w</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
2013 Ieee International Conference On Circuits And Systems (iccas)
Improved undetected error probability model for JTEC and JTEC-SQED coding schemes
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The undetected error probability is an important measure to assess the communication reliability provided by any error coding scheme. Two error coding schemes namely, Joint crosstalk avoidance and Triple Error Correction (JTEC) and JTEC with Simultaneous Quadruple Error Detection (JTEC-SQED), provide both crosstalk reduction and multi-bit error correction/detection features. The available undetected error probability model yields an upper bound value which does not give accurate estimation on the reliability provided. This paper presents an improved mathematical model to estimate the undetected error probability of these two joint coding schemes. According to the decoding algorithm the errors are classified into patterns and their decoding

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Apply the gravity model for trips between Najaf center and its settlements
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The study showed flow rates and the interaction between the settlements served by applying the model of gravity theory to measure depending on the number of the population between city Najaf and the rest of the other settlements served and using three functions of disability, time and cost, as recorded an increase in the interaction index with some settlements like them Kufa, Abbasid and Manathira, while the indicator contrast was in other settlements, either when the application of the gravity model depending on trips and socio-economic characteristics accuracy rate was more pronounced.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Solving Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem with Resource Constraint Using Fuzzy Mathematical Model
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Scheduling considered being one of the most fundamental and essential bases of the project management. Several methods are used for project scheduling such as CPM, PERT and GERT. Since too many uncertainties are involved in methods for estimating the duration and cost of activities, these methods lack the capability of modeling practical projects. Although schedules can be developed for construction projects at early stage, there is always a possibility for unexpected material or technical shortages during construction stage. The objective of this research is to build a fuzzy mathematical model including time cost tradeoff and resource constraints analysis to be applied concurrently. The proposed model has been formulated using fuzzy the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Concentration-Dependant Antioxidant Activity of Pentoxifylline in Nitrite-induced Hemoglobin Oxidation Model
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         Free radical formation in heme proteins is recognized as a factor in mediating the toxicity of many chemicals. The present study was designed to evaluate the dose-response relationship of the free radical scavenging properties of pentoxifylline in nitrite-induced Hb oxidation. Different concentrations of pentoxifylline were added at different time intervals of Hb oxidation in erythrocytes lysate, and formation of methemoglobin (MetHb) was monitored spectrophotometrically. The results showed that in this model, pentoxifylline successfully attenuates Hb oxidation after challenge with sodium nitrite; this protective effect was found to be not related to the catalytic stage of Hb oxidation, th

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Mechanical Engineering And Technology (ijmet)
Information model of plastic products formation process duration by injection molding method
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Bat Algorithm Based an Adaptive PID Controller Design for Buck Converter Model
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The aim of this paper is to design a PID controller based on an on-line tuning bat optimization algorithm for the step-down DC/DC buck converter system which is used in the battery operation of the mobile applications. In this paper, the bat optimization algorithm has been utilized to obtain the optimal parameters of the PID controller as a simple and fast on-line tuning technique to get the best control action for the system. The simulation results using (Matlab Package) show the robustness and the effectiveness of the proposed control system in terms of obtaining a suitable voltage control action as a smooth and unsaturated state of the buck converter input voltage of ( ) volt that will stabilize the buck converter sys

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Studying the Behavior of Asphalt Stabilized Gepseous Soil for Earth Embankment Model
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The study presents the test results of stabilizing gypseous soil embankment obtained from
Al- Faluja university Campus at Al-Ramady province. The laboratory investigation was divided
into three phases, The physical and chemical properties, the optimum liquid asphalt (emulsion)
requirements (which are manufactured in Iraq) were determined by using one dimensional
unconfined compression strength test.in the first phase , The optimum fluid content was 11%
(6% of emulsion with 5% water content).. At phase two, the effect of Aeration technique was
investigated using both direct shear and permeability test. At phase three for the case of static
load , the pure soil embankment model under dry test condition was investigated

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