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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Computers In Biology And Medicine
Model based smooth super-twisting control of cancer chemotherapy treatment
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Chemotherapy is one of the most efficient methods for treating cancer patients. Chemotherapy aims to eliminate cancer cells as thoroughly as possible. Delivering medications to patients’ bodies through various methods, either oral or intravenous is part of the chemotherapy process. Different cell-kill hypotheses take into account the interactions of the expansion of the tumor volume, external drugs, and the rate of their eradication. For the control of drug usage and tumor volume, a model based smooth super-twisting control (MBSSTC) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, three nonlinear cell-kill mathematical models are considered in this work, including the log-kill, Norton-Simon, and hypotheses subject to parametric uncertainties and exo

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Artificial Neural Network Model for Wastewater Projects Maintenance Management Plan
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Wastewater projects are one of the most important infrastructure projects, which require developing strategic plans to manage these projects. Most of the wastewater projects in Iraq don’t have a maintenance plan. This research aims to prepare the maintenance management plan (MMP) for wastewater projects. The objective of the research is to predict the cost and time of maintenance projects by building a model using ANN. The research sample included (15) completed projects in Wasit Governorate, where the researcher was able to obtain the data of these projects through the historical information of the Wasit Sewage Directorate. In this research artificial neural networks (ANN) technique was used to build two models (cost

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 22 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Mathematical Drilling Model on Southern Iraqi Oil Fields
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Notes on estimation of ARMA model (1.1) And ARMA (0,1)
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By driven the moment estimator of ARMA (1, 1) and by using the simulation some important notice are founded, From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign   and moment estimator for ARMA (1, 1) model that is: when the sign is positive means the root      gives invertible model and when the sign is negative means the root      gives invertible model. An alternative method has been suggested for ARMA (0, 1) model can be suitable when

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-nahrain Journal Of Science
THREE DIMENSIONAL EXPLICIT MODEL FOR COMETARY TAIL IONSINTERACTIONSWITH SOLAR WIND
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The different interactions between cometary tail and solar wind ions are studied in the present paper based on three-dimensional Lax explicit method. The model used in this research is based on the continuity equations describing the cometary tail-solar wind interactions. Three dimensional system was considered in this paper. Simulation of the physical system was achieved using computer code written using Matlab 7.0. The parameters studied here assumed Halley comet type and include the particle density , the particles velocity v, the magnetic field strength B, dynamic pressure p and internal energy E. The results of the present research showed that the interaction near the cometary nucleus is mainly affected by the new ions added to the

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Behavior of Reinforced Gypseous Soil Embankment Model under Cyclic Loading
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The construction of embankment for roadway interchange system at urban area is restricted due to the large geometry requirements, since the value of land required for such construction is high, and the area available is limited as compared to rural area. One of the optimum solutions to such problem is the earth reinforcement technique which requires a limited area for embankment construction. Gypseous soil from Al-Anbar governorate area was obtained and subjected to various physical and chemical analysis to determine it is properties. A laboratory model box of 50x50x25 cm was used as a representative embankment; soil has been compacted in five layers at maximum dry density (modified compaction) and an aluminum reinforcement strips we

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Geological Model of Khasib Reservoir- Central Area/East Baghdad Field
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The Geological modeling has been constructed by using Petrel E&P software to incorporate data, for improved Three-dimensional models of porosity model, water saturation, permeability estimated from core data, well log interpretation, and fault analysis modeling.

Three-dimensional geological models attributed with physical properties constructed from primary geological data. The reservoir contains a huge hydrocarbon accumulation, a unique geological model characterization with faults, high heterogeneity, and a very complex field in nature.

The results of this study show that the Three-dimensional geological model of Khasib reservoir, to build the reservoir model starting with evaluation of reservoir to interpretation o

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 24 2018
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Groundwater Quality
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The present article delves into the examination of groundwater quality, based on WQI, for drinking purposes in Baghdad City. Further, for carrying out the investigation, the data was collected from the Ministry of Water Resources of Baghdad, which represents water samples drawn from 114 wells in Al-Karkh and Al-Rusafa sides of Baghdad city. With the aim of further determining WQI, four water parameters such as (i) pH, (ii) Chloride (Cl), (iii) Sulfate (SO4), and (iv) Total dissolved solids (TDS), were taken into consideration. According to the computed WQI, the distribution of the groundwater samples, with respect to their quality classes such as excellent, good, poor, very poor and unfit for human drinking purpose, was found to be

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigate Spectroscopic Experimental and Theoretical Model for Hemoglobin Nanoscale Solution
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In the current study, haemoglobin analytes dissolved in a special buffer (KH2PO4(1M), K2HPO4(1M)) with pH of 7.4 were used to record absorption spectra measurements with a range of concentrations from (10-8 to 10-9) M and an absorption peak of 440nm using Broadband Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (BBCEAS) which is considered a simple, low cost, and robust setup. The principle work of this technique depends on the multiple reflections between the light source, which is represented by the Light Emitting Diode 3 W, and the detector, which is represented by the Avantes spectrophotomer. The optical cavity includes two high reflectivity  ≥99%  dielectric mirrors (dia

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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Statistical Model for Predicting the Optimum Gypsum Content in Concrete
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The problem of internal sulfate attack in concrete is widespread in Iraq and neighboring countries.This is because of the high sulfate content usually present in sand and gravel used in it. In the present study the total effective sulfate in concrete was used to calculate the optimum SO3 content. Regression models were developed based on linear regression analysis to predict the optimum SO3 content usually referred as (O.G.C) in concrete. The data is separated to 155 for the development of the models and 37 for checking the models. Eight models were built for 28-days age. Then a late age (greater than 28-days) model was developed based on the predicted optimum SO3 content of 28-days and late age. Eight developed models were built for all

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