The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The depth conversion process is a significant task in seismic interpretation to establish the link between the seismic data in the time domain and the drilled wells in the depth domain. To promote the exploration and development of the Subba oilfield, more accurate depth conversion is required. In this paper, three approaches of depth conversions: Models 1, 2, and 3 are applied from the simplest to the most complex on Nahr Umr Reservoir in Suba oilfield. This is to obtain the best approach, giving less mistakes with the actual depth at well locations and good inter/extrapolation between or away from well controls. The results of these approaches, together with the uncertainty analysis provide a reliable velocity model
... Show MoreA specialized irradiation instrument "created instrument" was designed and created from various kinds and sizes of available plastic household-waste materials. In addition, a neutron beam collimator with a lid was designed and implemented. The collimator is with dimensions of 25 cm in height and 10 cm in inner diameter, while the lid dimensions are 11.5 cm height and outer diameter of 9.9 cm to perfectly match the inner diameter of the collimator with the possibility of movement (opening and closing), and also the shielding of the radioactive 241Am/Be neutron source with a recent activity of 37.5 mCi.
To investigate the efficiency of the "created instrument", ten hydrogenous material samples (ordinary p
... Show MoreThe purpose of this work is to determine the points and planes of 3-dimensional projective space PG(3,2) over Galois field GF(q), q=2,3 and 5 by designing a computer program.
In this paper, variable gain nonlinear PD and PI fuzzy logic controllers are designed and the effect of the variable gain characteristic of these controllers is analyzed to show its contribution in enhancing the performance of the closed loop system over a conventional linear PID controller. Simulation results and time domain performance characteristics show how these fuzzy controllers outperform the conventional PID controller when used to control a nonlinear plant and a plant that has time delay.
In this paper, a single link flexible joint robot is used to evaluate a tracking trajectory control and vibration reduction by a super-twisting integral sliding mode (ST-ISMC). Normally, the system with joint flexibility has inevitably some uncertainties and external disturbances. In conventional sliding mode control, the robustness property is not guaranteed during the reaching phase. This disadvantage is addressed by applying ISMC that eliminates a reaching phase to ensure the robustness from the beginning of a process. To design this controller, the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is first designed as the nominal control to decide a desired performance for both tracking and vibration responses. Subsequently, discontinuous con
... Show MoreThe numerical resolve nonlinear system of Volterra integral equation of the second kind (NLSVIEK2) has been considered. The exponential function is used as the base function of the collocation method to approximate the resolve of the problem. Arithmetic epitome are performed which have already been solved by weighted residual manner, Taylor manner and block- by- block(2, 3, 5).
The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .
In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.
Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample
... Show MoreIn this paper, the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes estimator of the reliability function for negative exponential distribution has been derived, then a Monte –Carlo simulation technique was employed to compare the performance of such estimators. The integral mean square error (IMSE) was used as a criterion for this comparison. The simulation results displayed that the Bayes estimator performed better than the maximum likelihood estimator for different samples sizes.
Background: Women sexuality is basic right and it plays a major role in women's Health aspects. Up is one of the factors that lead to sexual dysfunction while the incidence of it is rising as UP severity being more. Objectives: To assess the impact of different degrees of uterine prolapse on sexual function of women at teaching hospitals in AL-Hilla City. Methodology: A descriptive analytical study was conducted from 1ST Feb to 10th Jun /2014 to assess the impact of different degrees of uterine prolapse on sexual function for women who attend to consultant clinic at teaching hospitals in AL-Hilla City
Fifty-four Sprague-Dawley albino adult male rats were classified into three main groups each of 18 rats treated for a particular duration (1,2, and 4) weeks respectively. Each group was subdivided into three subgroups each of six rats treated as follows; group (1) serve as normal control, group (2, and 3) intra-peritoneal treated with TiO2NPs (50,200) mg/kg respectively, body *weight of all rats was measured before and after the experiment, then rats were dissected at the end of each experiment and the weights of the thyroid was measured. The result showed a highly significant decrease (p<0.01) in thyroid gland weight, a highly significant increase (p<0.01) in body weights and TSH, while a highly significant decrease (p&
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