The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method
The objective of this study is to apply Artificial Neural Network for heat transfer analysis of shell-and-tube heat exchangers widely used in power plants and refineries. Practical data was obtained by using industrial heat exchanger operating in power generation department of Dura refinery. The commonly used Back Propagation (BP) algorithm was used to train and test networks by divided the data to three samples (training, validation and testing data) to give more approach data with actual case. Inputs of the neural network include inlet water temperature, inlet air temperature and mass flow rate of air. Two outputs (exit water temperature to cooling tower and exit air temperature to second stage of air compressor) were taken in ANN.
... Show MoreThe impact of undergraduate research experiences on students' academic development and retention in STEM fields is significant. Students' success in STEM fields is based on developing strong research and critical thinking skills that make it essential for students to engage in research activities throughout their academic programs. This work evaluates the effectiveness of undergraduate research experiences with respect to its influence on student retention and academic development. The cases presented are based on years of experience implementing undergraduate research programs in various STEM fields at Colorado State University Pueblo (CSU Pueblo) funded by HSI STEM Grants. The study seeks to establish a correlation between students' reten
... Show MoreOne of topics that occupied alarge area in Iraqi society at the moment is the issue( of tribal separation and its relation to the organization of the community ) so we see in the civilizations and heritage of each community aset of provisions and laws that take the form of status customary or religious it is indicative of the great interest in Iraqi society in cotrolling the behavior of individuals to comply with values and social laws and become their behavior is consistent with the behavior of the total and adhere to the social values and be productive individuals within the subject and this can only be achieved from the social co
... Show MoreAdvertisement on smart phone shopping apps are a new way of driving users to satisfy their needs and influence their purchasing decisions, In this way, the research could be aimed to know The role of the relationship between the motivations for audience exposure to shopping apps advertisement and purchasing decisions, In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher adopted the survey method and used the questionnaire and the scale to collect data and information, The researcher chose the "random sample multi stages", The sample size was (475) respondents from Baghdad city center (18 years and above) women and men.
A free convective heat transfer from the inside surface of a uniformly heated vertical circular tube has been experimentally investigated under a constant wall heat flux boundary condition for laminar air flow in the ranges of RaL from 6.9108 to 5109. The effect of the different sections (restrictions) lengths placed at the exit of the heated tube on the surface temperature distribution, the local and average heat transfer coefficients were examined. The experimental apparatus consists of aluminum circular tube with 900 mm length and 30 mm inside diameter (L/D=30). The exit sections (restrictions) were included circular tubes having the same inside diameter as the heated tube but with different lengths of
... Show MoreBackground: Nutritional status during childhood is very important for individual development and growth. Nutrition has local and systemic effect on the oral health by affecting dental health and salivary composition. This study was aimed to determine effect of iron, sodium and potassium ions in saliva on the nutritional status and to determine the effect of nutritional status on caries severity among preschool children. Material and Methods: The sample consists of 90 children aged 4 and 5 years of both genders, selected from 6 kindergartens in Al-Resafa aspect of Baghdad province. Children classified according to their nutritional status into three groups (normalweight, underweight and overweight). Nutritional status was determined by usi
... Show MoreThe single-particle level densities for Th 232
90 , at certain exciton number, are
calculated in terms of Equidistant Space Model, ESM, and NON-ESM, of Fermi
Gas Model. It is found that the single particle level density, g, has no longer a
constant value and becomes an energy dependent on the contrary with NON-ESM.
The finite depth of the nuclear well and pairing corrections are examined with
behavior of the single level density for both models. The particle-hole state density
has been calculated, by means of the energy dependence of excited particles and
hole level densities, for one and two fermions systems and different exciton number
in Th 232
90 . The present results are compared between two models with