The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
In this work, two algorithms of Metaheuristic algorithms were hybridized. The first is Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (IWO) it is a numerical stochastic optimization algorithm and the second is Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) it is an algorithm based on the intelligence of swarms and community intelligence. Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm (IWO) is an algorithm inspired by nature and specifically from the colonizing weeds behavior of weeds, first proposed in 2006 by Mehrabian and Lucas. Due to their strength and adaptability, weeds pose a serious threat to cultivated plants, making them a threat to the cultivation process. The behavior of these weeds has been simulated and used in Invas
... Show MoreBackground: This in vitro study compares a novel calcium-phosphate etchant paste to conventional 37% phosphoric acid gel for bonding metal and ceramic brackets by evaluating the shear bond strength, remnant adhesive and enamel damage following water storage, acid challenge and fatigue loading. Material and Methods: Metal and ceramic brackets were bonded to 240 extracted human premolars using two enamel conditioning protocols: conventional 37% phosphoric acid (PA) gel (control), and an acidic calcium-phosphate (CaP) paste. The CaP paste was prepared from β-tricalcium phosphate and monocalcium phosphate monohydrate powders mixed with 37% phosphoric acid solution, and the resulting phase was confirmed using FTIR. The bonded premolars were exp
... Show MoreControlling public expenditures is one of the main objectives of the public budget. The public budget often suffers from a deficit, whether in developed or developing countries, because expenditures are usually greater than the revenues generated. This requires the existence of financial rules that are adhered to by the government, which in turn leads to discipline. Fiscal policy leads to a reduction in the obligations incumbent on the government. Adhering to the financial rules would correct the course of fiscal policy in Iraq, with the need to direct oil revenues in the years of financial abundance when global oil prices rise to sovereign funds similar to other rentier countries, which contributes to maintaining the stabi
... Show MoreThis paper provides an identification key to the species of Orthetrum Newman, 1833 (Odonata, Libellulidae), including six species that were collected from different localities in Iraq.
The species of O. anceps (Schneider, 1845) is registered as a new record in Iraq; the most important characters which are used in diagnostic key are included
This paper aims to identify the approaches used in assessment the credit applications by Iraqi banks, as well as which approach is most used. It also attempted to link these approaches with reduction of credit default and banks’ efficiency particularly for the Gulf Commercial Bank. The paper found that the Gulf Bank widely relies on the method of Judgment Approach for assessment the credit applications in order to select the best of them with low risk of default. In addition, the paper found that the method of Judgment Approach was very important for the Gulf Bank and it driven in reduction the ratio of credit default as percentage of total credit. However, it is important to say that the adoption of statistical approaches for
... Show MoreThe banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total assets to mea
... Show MoreIn this paper, the fuzzy logic and the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number were presented, as well as some properties of the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number and semi- parametric logistic regression model when using the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number. The output variable represents the dependent variable sometimes cannot be determined in only two cases (response, non-response)or (success, failure) and more than two responses, especially in medical studies; therefore so, use a semi parametric logistic regression model with the output variable (dependent variable) representing a trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number.
the model was estimated on simulati
... Show Morenew, simple and fast solid-phase extraction method for separation and preconcentration of trace theophylline in aqueous solutions was developed using magnetite nanoparticles (MIONPs) coated with aluminium oxide (AMIONPs) and modified with palmitate (P) as an extractor (P@AMIONPs). It has shown that the developed method has a fast absorbent rate of the theophylline at room temperature. The parameters that affect the absorbent of theophylline in the aqueous solutions have been investigated such as the amount of magnetite nanoparticle, pH, standing time and the volume, concentration of desorption solution. The linear range, limit of quantification (LOQ) and limit of detection (LOD) for the determination of theophylline were 0.05-2.450 μg mL-
... Show MoreAbstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
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