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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2009
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاحصائية
Robust Estimator for Semiparametric Generalized Additive Model
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Generalized Additive Model has been considered as a multivariate smoother that appeared recently in Nonparametric Regression Analysis. Thus, this research is devoted to study the mixed situation, i.e. for the phenomena that changes its behaviour from linear (with known functional form) represented in parametric part, to nonlinear (with unknown functional form: here, smoothing spline) represented in nonparametric part of the model. Furthermore, we propose robust semiparametric GAM estimator, which compared with two other existed techniques.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Fuzzy-assignment Model by Using Linguistic Variables
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      This work addressed the assignment problem (AP) based on fuzzy costs, where the objective, in this study, is to minimize the cost. A triangular, or trapezoidal, fuzzy numbers were assigned for each fuzzy cost. In addition, the assignment models were applied on linguistic variables which were initially converted to quantitative fuzzy data by using the Yager’sorankingi method. The paper results have showed that the quantitative date have a considerable effect when considered in fuzzy-mathematic models.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy Bridge Regression Model Estimating via Simulation
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      The main problem when dealing with fuzzy data variables is that it cannot be formed by a model that represents the data through the method of Fuzzy Least Squares Estimator (FLSE) which gives false estimates of the invalidity of the method in the case of the existence of the problem of multicollinearity. To overcome this problem, the Fuzzy Bridge Regression Estimator (FBRE) Method was relied upon to estimate a fuzzy linear regression model by triangular fuzzy numbers. Moreover, the detection of the problem of multicollinearity in the fuzzy data can be done by using Variance Inflation Factor when the inputs variable of the model crisp, output variable, and parameters are fuzzed. The results were compared usin

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 22 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Inferential Methods for the Dagum Regression Model
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The Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
ON ERROR DISTRIBUTION WITH SINGLE INDEX MODEL
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In this paper, the error distribution function is estimated for the single index model by the empirical distribution function and the kernel distribution function. Refined minimum average variance estimation (RMAVE) method is used for estimating single index model. We use simulation experiments to compare the two estimation methods for error distribution function with different sample sizes, the results show that the kernel distribution function is better than the empirical distribution function.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Lorenz model and chaos masking /addition technique
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
CFD Simulation Model of Salt Wedge Propagation
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This study aims to numerically simulate the flow of the salt wedge by using computational fluid dynamics, CFD. The accuracy of the numerical simulation model was assessed against published laboratory data. Twelve CFD model runs were conducted under the same laboratory conditions. The results showed that the propagation of the salt wedge is inversely proportional to the applied freshwater discharge and the bed slope of the flume.  The maximum propagation is obtained at the lowest discharge value and the minimum slope of the flume. The comparison between the published laboratory results and numerical simulation shows a good agreement. The range of the relative error varies between 0 and 16% with an average of 2% and a roo

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 26 2025
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of skill exercises according to the Keller model on attentional control and learning the shooting skills from stability and movement of basketball for female students
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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of applying lean construction tools to improving the results of the earned value management model: Applied research in Al-Rasheed General Company for Construction Contracting
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Contracting companies play a prominent role today in economic activity, due to their contribution to the implementation of major construction projects which together constitute the infrastructure of society. Most construction projects also suffer from exceeding the time and cost specified and planned for the completion of the project, and this comes for several reasons, including the work environment, country conditions, The method of managing project costs and the techniques used in its implementation Accordingly, the concepts of lean construction came, which help in addressing the causes of waste, both in time and cost, in addition to the fact that project management needs techniques that are useful in controlling the control and manag

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A relationship study of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, blood groups, and some related factors in Iraqi patients
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Many studies of the relationship between COVID-19 and different factors have been conducted since the beginning of the corona pandemic. The relationship between COVID-19 and different biomarkers including ABO blood groups, D-dimer, Ferritin and CRP, was examined. Six hundred (600) patients, were included in this trial among them, 324 (56%) females and the rest 276 (46%) were males. The frequencies of blood types A, B, AB, and O were 25.33, 38.00, 31.33, and 5.33%, respectively, in the case group. Association analysis between the ABO blood group and D-dimer, Ferritin and CRP of COVID-19 patients indicated that there was a statistically significant difference for Ferritin (P≤0.01), but no-significant differences for both D-dimer and CRP.

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