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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Minerva Dental And Oral Science
Salivary interleukin-1β as a biomarker to differentiate between periodontal health, gingivitis, and periodontitis
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontitis among a Group of Type TwoDiabetic Patientsin Relation to Risk of Vascular Disease
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Background: Type two diabetic patients have higher risk of cardiovascular and periodontal disease. Furthermore, patients with more severe periodontal disease have higher incidence of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to assess the association between periodontal health status and the risk of vascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Materials and Methods: One hundred type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and fifty apparently healthy males were enrolled in this study. Oral examinations conducted were; plaque Index, calculus index, gingival index, probing pocket depth, and clinical attachment level. For the assessment of vascular risk, arterial stiffness index was used. Results: According to arterial stiffness index, type 2 diabetic p

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Management of COVID-19 in Children and Adolescents -A Practical Up-to Date Guideline
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Sufficient high-quality data are unavailable to describe the management approach and guideline of COVID-19 disease in pediatric and adolescent population which may be due to mild presentation in most of cases and less severe complications than older ages.

World Health Organization was concerned with the establishment of an approved guideline to manage the increasing number of COVID-19 patients worldwide aiming to prevent or lessen COVID-19 global burden.

The clinical features have a wide spectrum starting from uncomplicated mild illness, mild-moderate pneumonia, severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, septic shock, and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children.

Many important definitions

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An Analysis of Stress Distribution in a Spline Shaft Subjected to Cycilc Impulsive Load
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In this paper the effect of engagement length, number of teeth, amount of applied load, wave propagation time, number of cycles, and initial crack length on the principal stress distribution, velocity of crack propagation, and cyclic crack growth rate in a spline coupling subjected to cyclic torsional impact have been investigated analytically and experimentally. It was found that the stresses induced due to cyclic impact loading are higher than the stresses induced due to impact loading with high percentage depends on the number of cycles and total loading time. Also increasing the engagement length and the number of teeth reduces the principal stresses (40%) and
(25%) respectively for increasing the engagement length from (0.15 to 0

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Tooth Wear in Relation to Selected Salivary Variables among a Group of Older Adults
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Background: Tooth wear is one of the most concerning problems of the current dental practice especially among older subjects. The aim of this study is to determine the severity of tooth wear and its relation with selected salivary variables (salivary pH and vitamin C level) among a group of older adults in Mosul city/Iraq. Materials and methods: All subjects (30 subjects) of both gender tookpart in the current study; sixteen of them were older adults (55-65 years) and compared with fourteen middle-aged adults (30-40 years) at Textile factory in Mosul city/Iraq. Unstimulated salivary samples were collected and salivary pH was immediately measured. Salivary vitamin C level was determined colormetrically. Severity of tooth wear was determined

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use of Nicotiana tobaccum extractions as a molluscicide to the snail of Bulinus truncates
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Nicotiana tobaccum L (Solanacea) extracts are used as a mollusciede to the snail Bulinus truncatus the intermediate host of urinary Schistosomiasis. LC50 of the extracts to the snail with 24 hour was 3.27 ml/l? 48 hour was 3.33 ml/l? 72 hour was 2.67 ml/l and 96 hour was 2.28ml/l. This study showed the ability to use the leaf extracts in the control of this type of snail.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Pakistan Journal Of Medical And Health Sciences
A Computer Simulation of Hubble Telescope Including Eyepiece Nano- Sensors to Increase Optical Efficiency
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The Hubble telescope is characterized by the accuracy of the image formed in it, as a result of the fact that the surrounding environment is free of optical pollutants. Such as atmospheric gases and dust, in addition to light pollution emanating from industrial and natural light sources on the earth's surface. The Hubble telescope has a relatively large objective lens that provides appropriate light to enter the telescope to get a good image. Because of the nature of astronomical observation, which requires sufficient light intensity emanating from celestial objects (galaxies, stars, planets, etc.). The Hubble telescope is classified as type of the Cassegrain reflecting telescopes, which gives it the advantage of eliminating chromat

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 12 2020
Journal Name
Medico-legal Update
Assessing the Response of a Sample of Iraqi Asthmatic Patients to Different Medication Regimens
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Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of respiratory airways characterized by distinctive history of respiratory symptoms due to variable airflow obstruction which reverses either spontaneously or in response to certain medications. Acetylcholine is a parasympathetic neurotransmitter which plays fundamental roles in the development of persistent asthma. Treatment guidelines recommend using medium doses of inhaled corticosteroids in addition to another controller bronchodilator instead of using high doses inhaled steroid alone for treatment of moderate to severe persistent asthma. The inhaled long acting muscarinic antagonist, tiotropium, was approved recently to control unresponsive asthma to inhaled corticosteroid with or without a long

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oxidative status among a group of pregnant women in relation to gingival health condition
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Background: pregnancy as a systemic condition causes changes in the functioning of human body as a whole and specifically in the oral cavity and it also is considered as a stressful condition. These changes may favor the increase of oxidative stress. Aim: The aim of this study was to estimate the level of marker of oxidative stress (malondialdehyde) and antioxidant (uric acid) in saliva of pregnant compared to non-pregnant women and to assess the gingival health condition in both groups. Additionally, unstimulated salivary flow rate was determined in both groups. Subjects, materials and methods: The study group consisted of sixty pregnant women, they were divided into three equal groups according to trimester (20 pregnant women for each

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Land Magnetic survey along a profile from Akaz to Rutba town and its applications
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A land magnetic survey was carried out along regional profile, which is located at the north part of the Iraqi western desert. It starts from al –Qaam City (at north) toward Rutba City (at south) with a total length of 238km. The survey was carried out along the paved road between the two cities, About 113 measuring points were done with inter-station distance of 2 km (for 198 km) and 2 to 5km (for 40km). Two proton magnetometers were used in this survey. One of them is used for base station monitoring, which was fixed as of Salah Aldin field (Akkas). Its readings were used for diurnal corrections. All magnetic measurements were corrected for normal and topographic corrections. The readings were reduced to a certain base level. The resu

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