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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Pertanika Journal Of Science & Technology
Modified Kohonen network algorithm for selection of the initial centres of Gustafson-Kessel algorithm in credit scoring
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Credit risk assessment has become an important topic in financial risk administration. Fuzzy clustering analysis has been applied in credit scoring. Gustafson-Kessel (GK) algorithm has been utilised to cluster creditworthy customers as against non-creditworthy ones. A good clustering analysis implemented by good Initial Centres of clusters should be selected. To overcome this problem of Gustafson-Kessel (GK) algorithm, we proposed a modified version of Kohonen Network (KN) algorithm to select the initial centres. Utilising similar degree between points to get similarity density, and then by means of maximum density points selecting; the modified Kohonen Network method generate clustering initial centres to get more reasonable clustering res

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Catalytic Activity of Modified Zeolite Lanthanum on the Catalytic Cracking of Al-Duara Atmospheric Distillation Residue.
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Atmospheric residue fluid catalytic cracking was selected as a probe reaction to test the catalytic performance of modified NaY zeolites and prepared NaY zeolites. Modified NaY zeolites have been synthesized by simple ion exchange methods. Three samples of modified zeolite Y have been obtained by replacing the sodium ions in the original sample with lanthanum and the weight percent added are 0.28, 0.53, and 1.02 respectively. The effects of addition of lanthanum to zeolite Y in different weight percent on the cracking catalysts were investigated using an experimental laboratory plant scale of fluidized bed reactor.

The experiments have been performed with weight hourly space velocity (WHSV) range of 6 to 24 h

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 16 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Adsorption of Methyl Violet Dye from Aqueous Solution by Iraqi Bentonite and Surfactant – Modified Iraqi Bentonite
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Natural bentonite (B) mineral clay was modified by anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and characterized using different techniques such as: FTIR spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-Ray diffraction (XRD). The bentonite and modified bentonite were used as adsorbents for the adsorption of methyl violet (MV) from aqueous solutions. The adsorption study was carried out at different conditions such as: contact time, pH value and adsorbent weight. The adsorption kinetic described by pseudo– first order and pseudo – second order equilibrium experimental data described by Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models. The thermodynamic parameters standard free energy ( ), standard entropy ( ) standa

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
2nd International Conference For Engineering Sciences And Information Technology (esit 2022): Esit2022 Conference Proceedings
Room temperature flexible sensor based on F-MWCNT modified by polypyrrole conductive polymer for NO2 gas detection
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This project sought to fabricate a flexible gas sensor based on a short functionalized multi-walled carbon nanotubes (f-MWCNTs) network for nitrogen dioxide gas detection. The network was prepared by filtration from the suspension (FFS) method and modified by coating with a layer of polypyrrole conductive polymer (PPy) prepared by the oxidative chemical polymerization to improve the properties of the network. The structural, optical, and morphological properties of the f-MWCNTs and f-MWCNTs/PPy network were studied using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourie-transform infrared (FTIR), with an AFM (atomic force microscopy). XRD proved that the structure of f-MWCNTs is unaffected by the synthesis procedure. The FTIR spectra verified the existence o

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Potential Application of Natural and Modified Orange Peel as an Eco‒friendly Adsorbent for Methylene Blue Dye
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In this paper, the adsorption behavior of Methylene blue dye by orange peels, which was chemically modified with sodium hydroxide, has been investigated. Physical and chemical properties of both sorbents under study were determined using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrophotometer (FTIR), Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) and Brunauer, Emmett and Teller (BET) specific surface-area measurement techniques. Effect of the solution‒pH, adsorbent dose, adsorption time, temperature and initial methylene blue concentration were studied in batch experiments. The experimental data were fitted into the following kinetic models: pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order, and the intraparticle diffusion model. It was

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Materials In Civil Engineering
Moisture Susceptibility and Fatigue Performance of Hydrated Lime–Modified Asphalt Concrete: Experiment and Design Application Case Study
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Hydrated lime has been recognized as an effective additive used to improve asphalt concrete properties in pavement applications. However, further work is still needed to quantify the effect of hydrated lime on asphaltic concrete performance under varied weather, temperature, and environmental conditions and in the application of different pavement courses. A research project was conducted using hydrated lime to modify the asphalt concretes used for the applications of wearing (surface), leveling (binder), and base courses. A previous publication reported the experimental study on the resistance to Marshall stability and the volumetric properties, the resilient modulus, and permanent deformation at three different weather temperatures. This

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Construction And Building Materials
Uni- and tri-axial tests and property characterization for thermomechanical effect on hydrated lime modified asphalt concrete
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Permanent deformation, fatigue and thermal cracking are the three typical distresses of flexible pavement. Using hydrated lime (HL) into the conventional limestone mineral additive has been widely practiced, including in Europe, to improve the mechanical properties of hot mix asphalt (HMA) concrete and as the result the durability of the constructed pavement. Large number of experimental studies have been reported to find the optimum addition of HL for the improvement on HMA concrete mechanical properties, moisture susceptibility and fatigue resistance. Pavement in service is under complex thermomechanical stress-strain conditions due to coupled atmospheric and surrounding environment temperature variation and the traffic loading. To predic

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 04 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modified Elman Neural-PID Controller Design for DC-DC Buck Converter System Based on Dolphin Echolocation Optimization
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This paper describes a new proposed structure of the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller based on modified Elman neural network for the DC-DC buck converter system which is used in battery operation of the portable devices. The Dolphin Echolocation Optimization (DEO) algorithm is considered as a perfect on-line tuning technique therefore, it was used for tuning and obtaining the parameters of the modified Elman neural-PID controller to avoid the local minimum problem during learning the proposed controller. Simulation results show that the best weight parameters of the proposed controller, which are taken from the DEO, lead to find the best action and unsaturated state that will stabilize the Buck converter system performan

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 15 2022
Journal Name
Bmc Health Services Research
Design and evaluation of a new mobile application to improve the management of minor ailments: a pilot study
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

Seeking pharmacist advice about minor ailments is a common practice among Iraqi patients because such advice is free and quick. Unfortunately, the assessment and management of minor ailments by Iraqi pharmacists were inappropriate. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model for a mobile application that can assist community pharmacists in the diagnosis and management of minor ailments.

Methods

The scientific content of the application was based on the information in the symptoms in the pharmacy and British Nati

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
African Journal Of Hospitality, Tourism And Leisure
An analytical study of the strategic flexibility variation as a function of the dynamic capabilities based on supply chain management (Case study: The General Petroleum Products Distribution Company in Baghdad)
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