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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
مجلة جامعة الانبار للعلوم البدنیة والریاضیة
بناء وتقنين مقياس التهكم التنظيمي للمعنيين بالاتحاد العراقي المركزي بالكرة الطائرة
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تهدف الدراسة الى بناء مقياس التهكم التنظيمي للمعنيين بالاتحاد العراقي المركزي بالكرة الطائرة. تحديد الدرجات والمستويات المعيارية لمقياس التهكم التنظيمي للمعنيين بالاتحاد العراقي المركزي بالكرة الطائرة.وقد استخدم الباحثون المنهج المسحي على مجتمع البحث وعينته المتمثلة بالمعنيين من حكام واداريين ومدربون بالكرة الطائرة إذ بلغت العينة (185) فرداً، وبعد ذلك أجريت إجراءات البناء واختيار المجالات والعبارات ومن

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Estructura y el análisis de los personajes en la novela“ Sotileza ” de José María de Pereda
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Resumen

    Sotileza , localismo santandrino de sutileza , es la parte más fina del aparejo de pescar donde va el anzuelo. Es la obra maestro de José María de Pereda.Su ambiente , el Santander viejo, anterior al año 50,evocado emocionadamente - emociόn romántica contenida en los trazos sobrios y firmes de un naturalism psicolόgico y paisajista,el Santander que el autor confiesa poseer en el fondo de su corazόn,«y tenerlo esculpido en la memoria de tal suerte que ,a ojos cerrados,me atrevería a trazarle con todo su perímetro y sus calles, y el color de sus piedras, y el número, y los nombres, y hasta las caras de sus habitantes».Dentro de la grandeza primaria de las criaturas de Pere

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the constructivism Model for Chemistry Subject and Its Effect on the Life Skill by the Second Intermediate Female Students
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The research aims to identify the effect of teaching-learning design based on the constructivism theory on the life skills of middle stage students. The sample consisted of (60) students from one of the middle schools in Baghdad's governorate. The experimental group and control group consisted of 30 students for each group, the research tool was the life skills scale composed of (78) items. The scale proved its validity and reliability, which was found to be (0.85). The results showed a statistically significant difference in life skills between the two groups of research in favor of the experimental group, which studied the educational design according to models of constructivism theory compared to the usual method of teaching.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Application of the excess cash margin model (ECM) to detect the Earning Management in the banking sector: Comparative study between commercial and Islamic banks
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The research draws its importance from identifying the methods of profit management in misleading the financial statements, which in turn is reflected in the decisions of the authorities that relied on these reports, and then the models that help in detecting those methods used by the auditors. Risks. The index (margin of excess cash) was used to detect profit management practices on a group of banks listed in the Iraqi market for securities and the number of (23) banks, including (12) commercial bank and (11) Islamic bank and the results were compared to commercial banks with Islamic banks.((The research started from the hypothesis that the use of the (excess cash margin) model in the banking sector reveals the management

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
Instructional Design According to the Repulsive Learning Model and its Impact on the Achievement of Chemistry and Lateral Thinking for Third-Grade Intermediate Students
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Identify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Principal components and Partial least squares methods to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of linear multiplication problem
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Abstract

  The logistic regression model is one of the nonlinear models that aims at obtaining highly efficient capabilities, It also the researcher an idea of the effect of the explanatory variable on the binary response variable.                                                                                  &nb

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare some wavelet estimators for parameters in the linear regression model with errors follows ARFIMA model.
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The aim of this research is to estimate the parameters of the linear regression model with errors following ARFIMA model by using wavelet method depending on maximum likelihood and approaching general least square as well as ordinary least square. We use the estimators in practical application on real data, which were the monthly data of Inflation and Dollar exchange rate obtained from the (CSO) Central Statistical organization for the period from 1/2005 to 12/2015. The results proved that (WML) was the most reliable and efficient from the other estimators, also the results provide that the changing of fractional difference parameter (d) doesn’t effect on the results.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 13 2021
Journal Name
Eureka: Physics And Engineering
A numerical study to improve the position and angle of the producer gas injector inside the intake manifold to minimize emissions and efficiency enhancement of a bi engine
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To develop a petrol engine so that it works under the bi-engine pattern (producer gas-petrol) without any additional engine modifications, a single-point injection method inside the intake manifold is a simple and inexpensive method. Still, it leads to poor mixing performance between the air and producer gas. This deficiency can cause unsatisfactory engine performance and high exhaust emissions. In order to improve the mixing inside the intake manifold, nine separate cases were modelled to evaluate the impact of the position and angle orientation inside the intake manifold on the uniformity and spread of the mixture under AFR=2.07. A petrol engine (1.6 L), the maximum engine speed (8000 rpm), and bi-engine mode (petrol-producer ga

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Quality Evaluation of Al-Rasheed Ready Concrete Mixture Plant By Using Six Sigma Approach
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The objective of this research work is to evaluate the quality of central concrete plant of Al-Rasheed Company by using Six Sigma approach which is a measure of quality that strives for near elimination of defects using the statistical methods to improve outputs that are critical to customers. The fundamental objective of Six Sigma methodology is the implementation of a measurement-based strategy that focuses on process improvement and variation reduction to reach delighting customers, and then suggesting an improvement system to improve the production of concrete in Al-Rasheed State Contracting Construction Company.
A field survey includes two parts (open and close questionnaire) that aimed to get the data and information required f

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improving Press Bending Production Quality through Finite Element Simulation: Integration CAD and CAE Approach
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Efficient operations and output of outstanding quality distinguish superior manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing process production of bending sheet metal is a form of fabrication in the industry of manufacture in which the plate is bent using punches and dies to the angle of the work design. Product quality is influenced by plate material selection, which includes thickness, type, dimensions, and material. Because no prior research has concentrated on this methodology, this research aims to determine V-bending capacity limits utilizing the press bending method. The inquiry employed finite element analysis (FEA), along with Solidworks was the tool of choice to develop drawings of design and simulations. The ASTM E290

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