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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Estimation for the Parameters and Hazard Function of Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution
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Transforming the common normal distribution through the generated Kummer Beta model to the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) had been achieved. Then, estimating the distribution parameters and hazard function using the MLE method, and improving these estimations by employing the genetic algorithm. Simulation is used by assuming a number of models and different sample sizes. The main finding was that the common maximum likelihood (MLE) method is the best in estimating the parameters of the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) compared to the common maximum likelihood according to Mean Squares Error (MSE) and Mean squares Error Integral (IMSE) criteria in estimating the hazard function. While the pr

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Darwinian Philosophy as Optimization Method for Design High Reflection Mirror Include New Merit Function
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In this paper we proposes the philosophy of the Darwinian selection as synthesis method called Genetic algorithm ( GA ), and include new merit function with simple form then its uses in other works for designing one of the kinds of multilayer optical filters called high reflection mirror. Here we intend to investigate solutions for many practical problems. This work appears designed high reflection mirror that have good performance with reduction the number of layers, which can enable one to controlling the errors effect of the thickness layers on the final product, where in this work we can yield such a solution in a very shorter time by controlling the length of the chromosome and optimal genetic operators . Res

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 08 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Bayes estimators for reliability and hazard function of Rayleigh-Logarithmic (RL) distribution with application
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In this paper, we derived an estimators and parameters of Reliability and Hazard function of new mix distribution ( Rayleigh- Logarithmic) with two parameters and increasing failure rate using Bayes Method with Square Error Loss function and Jeffery and conditional probability random variable of observation. The main objective of this study is to find the efficiency of the derived of Bayesian estimator compared to the to the Maximum Likelihood of this function using Simulation technique by Monte Carlo method under different Rayleigh- Logarithmic parameter and sample sizes. The consequences have shown that Bayes estimator has been more efficient than the maximum likelihood estimator in all sample sizes with application

Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Improving Customer Value Through the Integral of Techniques Quality Function Deployment and Value Engineering
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Health service institutions suffer from challenges resulting from the great changes that our world is witnessing today.  This has affected the value that these institutions add to the patient.

This research aims to identify the effect of integrating each of the techniques of QFD and value engineering for the health services provided to the patient to improve the value for him and thus obtain his satisfaction, which is reflected in the reputation of the surveyed hospitals. To achieve this, the descriptive analytical method was used, and a questionnaire was designed to collect the necessary data, which represents a measure of this research. The questionnaire was distri

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Key Role of Bone Function Markers in Patients with Type (II) Diabetes Mellitus
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      Complications associated with diabetes are a consequence of acute disturbance in glucose metabolism in a human body. The most significant complication of diabetes is bone disorders which contributes to high levels of bone disability. This study included 118 diabetic patients, 56 males, 62 females, and 60 healthy non-diabetic controls, 30 males, 30 females. The patients and controls were age matched. Circulating levels of bone function markers (osteoprotegerin, vitamin D, PTH, total calcium and inorganic phosphorus) were determined in all subject groups. The data obtained from this study showed that the serum levels of osteoprotegerin had significantly increased in both diabetic male & female in both age ranges which were 4

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation the reliability function of multi state system by using Direct Partial Logic Derivative
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In this research is estimated the function of reliability dynamic of multi state systems  and their compounds and for three types of systems (serial, parallel, 2-out-of-3) and about two states (Failure and repair) depending on calculating the structur function allow to describing the behavior of

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Effect of alteration in nutritional style on liver function tests and general stool examination
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Applied And Computational Mathematics
Reliable computational methods for solving Jeffery-Hamel flow problem based on polynomial function spaces
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In this paper reliable computational methods (RCMs) based on the monomial stan-dard polynomials have been executed to solve the problem of Jeffery-Hamel flow (JHF). In addition, convenient base functions, namely Bernoulli, Euler and Laguerre polynomials, have been used to enhance the reliability of the computational methods. Using such functions turns the problem into a set of solvable nonlinear algebraic system that MathematicaⓇ12 can solve. The JHF problem has been solved with the help of Improved Reliable Computational Methods (I-RCMs), and a review of the methods has been given. Also, published facts are used to make comparisons. As further evidence of the accuracy and dependability of the proposed methods, the maximum error remainder

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Different Estimators for the shape Parameter and the Reliability function of Kumaraswamy Distribution
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In this paper, we used maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method to estimate the shape parameter (θ), and reliability function (R(t)) of the Kumaraswamy distribution with two parameters l , θ (under assuming the exponential distribution, Chi-squared distribution and Erlang-2 type distribution as prior distributions), in addition to that we used method of moments for estimating the parameters of the prior distributions. Bayes

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of the one electron expectation values for different wave function of Be atom
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The aim of this work is to evaluate the one- electron expectation value from the radial electronic density function D(r1) for different wave function for the 2S state of Be atom . The wave function used were published in 1960,1974and 1993, respectavily. Using Hartree-Fock wave function as a Slater determinant has used the partitioning technique for the analysis open shell system of Be (1s22s2) state, the analyze Be atom for six-pairs electronic wave function , tow of these are for intra-shells (K,L) and the rest for inter-shells(KL) . The results are obtained numerically by using computer programs (Mathcad).

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