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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
الذكوات البيض
The problem of employing political discourse and its role in promoting community peace: Iraq as a model
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After 2003, Iraq witnessed new challenges represented by the predominance of sectarian discourses, hatred and extremism at the expense of moderate political discourse and the predominance of sub-affiliations and external agendas at the expense of national affiliation, which led to the creation of an unsafe or stable environment dominated by the character of violence and terrorism. Moderate discourse would work to fuse sub-affiliations into one melting pot in which it would be the first loyalty to the homeland and not to the tribe, party or sect... Etc., and this in turn will contribute to promoting peaceful coexistence between the various other sub-affiliations within the framework of one community construction

Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater (Iraqi theater as a model): علي شخير نفل
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The features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater are of great importance and chief in theatrical work since the first emergence of the theater, as the features of the performance were embodied in all Iraqi theatrical performances, but they took personal privacy in some ritual performances because of their differences and similarities between the ritual theatrical performance and the ritual show Al-Khalis, who wanted the researcher to know the similarities and differences in the features of the ritual performance and in the theatrical performance, despite the many transformations that occurred in the theater and affected the features of the performance, but it remained an important and attractive link between the recipient, t

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Electrical Conductivity as a General Predictor of Multiple Parameters in Tigris River Based on Statistical Regression Model
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Surface water samples from different locations within Tigris River's boundaries in Baghdad city have been analyzed for drinking purposes. Correlation coefficients among different parameters were determined. An attempt has been made to develop linear regression equations to predict the concentration of water quality constituents having significant correlation coefficients with electrical conductivity (EC). This study aims to find five regression models produced and validated using electrical conductivity as a predictor to predict total hardness (TH), calcium (Ca), chloride (Cl), sulfate (SO4), and total dissolved solids (TDS). The five models showed good/excellent prediction ability of the parameters mentioned

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Methods of Acting Performance and Watching Industry in Street Theatre- Play (Sold) - A Model: بهاء زهير كاظم
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  The audience is one of the important practical elements in the theatrical show and its importance is not confined to its static activity as a receiver element only, rather it went beyond that issue as an effective and influential element in the proceedings of the show and the process of meaning construction, that it gains an active role in the construction and production of the connotation that influences and is influenced by the actor, where the communication channels are open between the two sides, consequently a kind of watching and joint interaction happens between them. Thus, it has become necessary for the actor to create a suitable environment for the onlookers in order for it to be an essential part of the show system. The

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A proposal to impose a tax on the profits of securities trading to increase tax revenues: Applied research in the General Commission of Taxes
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Abstract:

                The research aims to identify the concept of trading securities in Iraq and to propose a new mechanism for the taxation of trading profits and the extent of its impact on tax revenues, as it was observed that there are professional investors in the trading market and some of them achieve huge annual profits. and this profit should be like other taxable profits. The General Commission of Taxes and in cooperation with the Iraq Stock Exchange should identifying those profits, subjecting them to income tax, and adding them to the tax base. The researcher relied on the use of the descriptive and analytical approach bas

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Dynamic Bayesian network to estimate the reliability of Adamia Water Network
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Abstract\

In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2007
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Diagnostic Approach of Atypical Cells in Effusion Cytology Using Computerized Image Analysis
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Background: Cytology is one of the important diagnostic tests done on effusion fluid. It can detect malignant cells in up to 60% of malignant cases. The most important benign cell present in these effusions is the mesothelial cell. Mesothelial atypia can be striking andmay simulate metastatic carcinoma. Many clinical conditions may produce such a reactive atypical cells as in anemia,SLE, liver cirrhosis and many other conditions. Recently many studies showed the value of computerized image analysis in differentiating atypical cells from malignant adenocarcinoma cells in effusion smears. Other studies support the reliability of the quantitative analysisand morphometric features and proved that they are objective prognostic indices. Method

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Improved Runge-Kutta Method for Oscillatory Problem Solution Using Trigonometric Fitting Approach
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This paper provides a four-stage Trigonometrically Fitted Improved Runge-Kutta (TFIRK4) method of four orders to solve oscillatory problems, which contains an oscillatory character in the solutions. Compared to the traditional Runge-Kutta method, the Improved Runge-Kutta (IRK) method is a natural two-step method requiring fewer steps. The suggested method extends the fourth-order Improved Runge-Kutta (IRK4) method with trigonometric calculations. This approach is intended to integrate problems with particular initial value problems (IVPs) using the set functions  and   for trigonometrically fitted. To improve the method's accuracy, the problem primary frequency  is used. The novel method is more accurate than the conventional Runge-Ku

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 06 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparative for the EWMA charts by using non - homogeneous markov chain approach
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In this study, we investigate the run length properties for the EWMA charts with time - varying control limits, and fast initial Response (FIR), for monitoring the mean of a normal process with a known standard deviation , by using non - homogeneous markov chain approach.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2023
Journal Name
Mathematical Modelling Of Engineering Problems
Traffic Classification of IoT Devices by Utilizing Spike Neural Network Learning Approach
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Whenever, the Internet of Things (IoT) applications and devices increased, the capability of the its access frequently stressed. That can lead a significant bottleneck problem for network performance in different layers of an end point to end point (P2P) communication route. So, an appropriate characteristic (i.e., classification) of the time changing traffic prediction has been used to solve this issue. Nevertheless, stills remain at great an open defy. Due to of the most of the presenting solutions depend on machine learning (ML) methods, that though give high calculation cost, where they are not taking into account the fine-accurately flow classification of the IoT devices is needed. Therefore, this paper presents a new model bas

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