The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this research is estimated the function of reliability dynamic of multi state systems and their compounds and for three types of systems (serial, parallel, 2-out-of-3) and about two states (Failure and repair) depending on calculating the structur function allow to describing the behavior of
Intended for getting good estimates with more accurate results, we must choose the appropriate method of estimation. Most of the equations in classical methods are linear equations and finding analytical solutions to such equations is very difficult. Some estimators are inefficient because of problems in solving these equations. In this paper, we will estimate the survival function of censored data by using one of the most important artificial intelligence algorithms that is called the genetic algorithm to get optimal estimates for parameters Weibull distribution with two parameters. This leads to optimal estimates of the survival function. The genetic algorithm is employed in the method of moment, the least squares method and the weighted
... Show MoreThis study was designed to investigate the effect of thyroid hormone disturbance on lipids profiles and liver functions. Eighteen mature male rats Rattus norvegicus were divided into three groups. The first and the second groups were injected subcutaneously with thyroxine (T4) and carbimazol (both at 600 µg/kg BW) respectively on alternate days, to produce recurrent periods of hyper and hypothyroidism .The control group which is the third group was injected with physiological saline. The process continued 4 weeks, after that, injection, blood specimens were collected to estimate serum levels of T3 and T4, Total cholesterol (TC), Triglycerides (TG), High density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), Low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) an
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to show the concepts of nuclear shape and the geometrical picture to the even-even nuclei of 164,166,168E isotopes in the context of the Interacting boson Model IBM-1. The energy spectra were calculated and the effective charge values (eB) of the electromagnetic transition strength were obtained and used to calculate the B(E2) values of the electromagnetic transitions and the quadrupole moment Q of 2+ -states. The Hamiltonian parameters were calculated by taking in account the properties of these nuclei. Comparison were made with the available experimental data and included in tables. The geometrical picture of these nuclei were looked at by calculating the deformation which were represented by the potentia
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the impact of the dimensions of the European Excellence Model in evaluating the performance of the bank of the research sample, as well as to interpret which dimensions are more important to the banks of the research sample. Based on the dimensions of this model, the United Bank for Investment and Finance has chosen a research community, and has met with officials of the United Bank for Investment and Finance at various administrative levels to measure the practices of excellence management in the European model, and the analytical approach has been the case study and the construction of the checklist as a tool to collect information. The research has reached the most important results There is a discr
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Find interested in the harmonization of variables and determinants of supply chain planning needs of the material, leading to the results start effective supply chain management, and end up quickly modify the sizes to suit the demand and turnover in the market. As well as identifying relationships between variables, and type of relationship used by the company with the processors and their feasibility, and indicate the level of interest and willingness to redesign the supply chain Company for Electrical Industries and build an integrated model for supply chain with the MRP system can be applied in the company.
Research depend on quantitative and descriptive method, It
... Show MoreThe main aim of this research paper is investigating the effectiveness and validity of Meso-Scale Approach (MSA) as a modern technique for the modeling of plain concrete beams. Simply supported plain concrete beam was subjected to two-point loading to detect the response in flexural. Experimentally, a concrete mix was designed and prepared to produce three similar standard concrete prisms for flexural testing. The coarse aggregate used in this mix was crushed aggregate. Numerical Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was conducted on the same concrete beam using the meso-scale modeling. The numerical model was constructed to be a bi-phasic material consisting of cement mortar and coarse aggregate. The interface between the two c
... Show MoreAbstract: The utility of DNA sequencing in diagnosing and prognosis of diseases is vital for assessing the risk of genetic disorders, particularly for asymptomatic individuals with a genetic predisposition. Such diagnostic approaches are integral in guiding health and lifestyle decisions and preparing families with the necessary foreknowledge to anticipate potential genetic abnormalities. The present study explores implementing a define-by-run deep learning (DL) model optimized using the Tree-structured Parzen estimator algorithm to enhance the precision of genetic diagnostic tools. Unlike conventional models, the define-by-run model bolsters accuracy through dynamic adaptation to data during the learning process and iterative optimization
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