The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
As s widely use of exchanging private information in various communication applications, the issue to secure it became top urgent. In this research, a new approach to encrypt text message based on genetic algorithm operators has been proposed. The proposed approach follows a new algorithm of generating 8 bit chromosome to encrypt plain text after selecting randomly crossover point. The resulted child code is flipped by one bit using mutation operation. Two simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach including execution time of encryption/decryption and throughput computations. Simulations results prove the robustness of the proposed approach to produce better performance for all evaluation metrics with res
... Show MoreThis study seeks to highlights on the behavioral approach in organization theory as modern and effective entrance in constructing this theory and reflection extent on the behavior of both the product and the information user (accountant and financial information).
The study also focus on behavioral approach role in consolidating accounting concepts through making harmony between them so that the accountant can influence the user behavior with the concepts and principles of accounting in an effort to provide quality characteristic of accounting information produced by him in consistent with his behavior and information user and its impact on the decision making process by the latter.
... Show MoreThis paper aims to evaluate the reliability analysis for steel beam which represented by the probability of Failure and reliability index. Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM) will be used to achieve this issue. These methods need two samples for each behavior that want to study; the first sample for resistance (carrying capacity R), and second for load effect (Q) which are parameters for a limit state function. Monte Carlo method has been adopted to generate these samples dependent on the randomness and uncertainties in variables. The variables that consider are beam cross-section dimensions, material property, beam length, yield stress, and applied loads. Matlab software has be
... Show MoreThe main objective of this research is to use the methods of calculus ???????? solving integral equations Altbataah When McCann slowdown is a function of time as the integral equation used in this research is a kind of Volterra
Semi-parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to give an efficient model estimation. The problem when the response variable has one of two values either 0 ( no response) or one – with response which is called the logistic regression model.
We compare two methods Bayesian and . Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.
A simulation had been used to study the empirical behavior for the Logistic model , with different sample sizes and variances. The results using represent that the Bayesian method is better than the at small samples sizes.
... Show MoreAllah legislated marriage and made it dwelling, fellowship and mercy between
the two couples, Prophet Moh'd (peace of Allah and blessing be upon him) ordered a
husband to look after his wife, treat her with full charity and make love with here
every kindly. On the other hand, he ordered a wife to obey her husband and respect
him deeply, nevertheless, some obstacles may sometimes be appeared within the life
of their marriage, this may be caused by either a husband or a wife. This problem is
called lifely disobedience (AL-Noshooz).
In the other words, this means that a wife begins to hate her husband, refuse his orders
and not obey him.
In brief, they hate each other which leads to some marks appear in their
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Building natural period, T, is a key character in building response for wind and seismic induced forces. In design practice, the period, T, is either estimated from empirical relations proposed by the design codes or determined from analytical or numerical models. The effect of the soil-structure interaction is usually neglected in the design practice and analysis models. This paper uses a sophisticated finite element simulation to investigate the effect of soil-structure modeling on the fundamental period of RC buildings subjected to wind and seismic induced forces. A typical interior building frame has been imitated using the frame element for beams and columns with constrains to mo