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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 08 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
TOTAL ORGANIC CARBON (TOC) PREDICTION FROM RESISTIVITY AND POROSITY LOGS: A CASE STUDY FROM IRAQ
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     The open hole well log data (Resistivity, Sonic, and Gamma Ray) of well X in Euphrates subzone within the Mesopotamian basin are applied to detect the total organic carbon (TOC) of Zubair Formation in the south part of Iraq. The mathematical interpretation of the logs parameters helped in detecting the TOC and source rock productivity. As well, the quantitative interpretation of the logs data leads to assigning to the organic content and source rock intervals identification. The reactions of logs in relation to the increasing of TOC can be detected through logs parameters. By this way, the TOC can be predicted with an increase in gamma-ray, sonic, neutron, and resistivity, as well as a decrease in the density log

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Numerical Investigation of Drag Reduction Techniques in a Car Model
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Abstract<p>Reducing the drag force has become one of the most important concerns in the automotive industry. This study concentrated on reducing drag through use of some external modifications of passive flow control, such as vortex generators, rear under body diffuser slices and a rear wing spoiler. The study was performed at inlet velocity (V=10,20,30,40 m/s) which correspond to an incompressible car model length Reynolds numbers (Re=2.62×10<sup>5</sup>, 5.23×10<sup>5</sup>, 7.85×10<sup>5</sup> and 10.46×10<sup>5</sup>), respectively and we studied their effect on the drag force. We also present a theoretical study finite volume method (FVM) of solvi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Gross Domestic Product in Saudi Arabia using ARDL model for the period 1993-2019
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This paper analyses the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and gross domestic product (GDP) in Saudi Arabia for the period 1993-2019. Specifically, it measures the effects of interest rate, oil price, inflation rate, budget deficit and money supply on the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The method employs in this paper is based on a descriptive analysis approach and ARDL model through the Bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the research reveal that the budget deficit, oil price and money supply have positive significant effects on GDP, while other variables have no effects on GDP and turned out to be insignificant. The findings suggest that both fiscal and monetary policies should be fo

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 23 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Continuous Flow Injection-Turbidimetric Analysis for Determination of Cobalt (II) Ion in Alloys Using a Microcell with Irradiation Sources at 0–180° Using a Single Solar Cell as a Detector
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A cost-effective and efficient detector was created to conduct thorough turbidimetric measurements by reaction of Co (II) ion with calcium ferro cyanide to form bright green particulate, using the method of continuous flow injection analysis, the use of NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer in determining cobalt (II) ion in a test for the validity of the new design. The NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer is composed of five irradiation sources of white snow leds having the diameter of 10 mm with one solar cell of 55 mm length, 13.5 mm width. Using a selector switch to select the optimum voltage to be used which was 2.7 VDC. Under conditions of optimization, cobalt (II) ion was determined at 0.005–20 mmol. L–1(n = 23) while linearity dynamic range 0.005–7 mm

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A Proposed Framework to Developing the Auditor's Reporting in Iraq in Accordance With the International Standards on Auditing
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The international reporting auditor witness rapidly developed over the past years, where profession began give attention to the development of auditor reporting and improve its informational report through the issuance and amendment of some relevant international auditing standards. The reality of the situation refers to the failure to inform the auditor in Iraq in  many areas, including: Clearly defined management responsibility for the preparation of financial and auditor's responsibility to express an opinion on these statements and Amendment of opinion when the financial statements as a whole is free from material misstatement based on the evidence is sufficient and appropriate audit, or not to build the auditor's ability to obt

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ž (( The role of Organisational learning in building a talent management strategies Applied research in the Ministry of Science and Technology ))
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The aims of the research is to know the role of Organisational learning in building talent management strategies in the Ministry of Science and Technology , where we see the challenges facing organizations today dictate now and in the future activation of scientific expertise to meet these challenges and the dissemination of these concepts within the priorities and data organizational culture of these organizations despite having a lot of the importance of organizational knowledge and learning applications .Despite learning and adopting some of the organizations have to enhance their competitiveness, we find a lot of organizations, including (The ministry researched) still do not realize the importance of the role of organization

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 23 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Surfactant Cloud Point Extraction as a Procedure of Preconcentrating for Metoclopramide Determination Using Spectro Analytical Technique
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In current article an easy and selective method is proposed for spectrophotometric estimation of metoclopramide (MCP) in pharmaceutical preparations using cloud point extraction (CPE) procedure. The method involved reaction between MCP with 1-Naphthol in alkali conditions using Triton X-114 to form a stable dark purple dye. The Beer’s law limit in the range 0.34-9 μg mL-1 of MCP with r =0.9959 (n=3) after optimization. The relative standard deviation (RSD) and percentage recoveries were 0.89 %, and (96.99–104.11%) respectively. As well, using surfactant cloud point extraction as a method to extract MCP was reinforced the extinction coefficient(ε) to 1.7333×105L/mol.cm in surfactant-rich phase. The small volume of organi

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
measure the relationship between imported inflation and foreign trade in the Iraqi economy for long 1990-2015 using model nardl
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The study aims to discuss the relation between imported inflation and international trade of Iraqi economy for the period (1990-2015) by using annual data. To achieve the study aim, statistical and Econometrics methods are used through NARDL model to explain non-linear relation because it’s a model assigned to measure non-linear relations and as we know most economic relations are non-linear, beside explaining positive and negative effects of imported inflation, and to reach the research aim deductive approach was adopted through using descriptive method to describe and determine phenomenon. Beside the inductive approach by g statistical and standard tools to get the standard model explains the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Dramatic Construction in Quranic Text Surah Taha – A model: جبار خماط حسن
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There are many varied studies that dealt with the dramatic construction, especially books and studies that addressed drama in its construction and the method of writing it, that no textbook or a general cultural content is void of tackling the dramatic text in its construction and how the dramatic action develops in it. Therefore, a question occurs to the mind about the feasibility of dealing with the dramatic construction in this time, where many contemporary studies of dramatology and its relation and the contemporary critical directions are accumulating. This question many have two realistic aspects, yet the novelty and originality that this research shows lie in addressing a refined linguistic text in its style and connotations, such

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
On The Dynamical Behavior of a Prey-Predator Model With The Effect of Periodic Forcing
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The dynamical behavior of a two-dimensional continuous time dynamical system describing by a prey predator model is investigated. By means of constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, sufficient condition is derived for the global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium of the system. The Hopf bifurcation analysis is carried out. The numerical simulations are used to study the effect of periodic forcing in two different parameters. The results of simulations show that the model under the effects of periodic forcing in two different parameters, with or without phase difference, could exhibit chaotic dynamics for realistic and biologically feasible parametric values.

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