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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The impact of new media in social relations: (A field study on a sample of young people in Baghdad)
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Modern communication and media technology has pioneered new horizons and curried out deep changes in the various fields of social life, It effected enormously human communication as well.
Content one Who late the developments which have effected the social relations ،due to the new media ،especially Face book ,will certainly notice the far cry changes of the social relation net which has been effected ,in a way or another ،the accelerated development ،under the appearance of the so called the virtual society .
Face book has embodied the means – communication ,which has become an important turn point in the social communication .
It is the point the present paper tries to expose an discuss by a field study curried on a sam

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Sustainable Development And Planning
Monitoring and Prediction Functional Change of Land Uses Toward Urban Sustainability
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Urban land uses are in a dynamic state that varies over time, the city of Karbala in Iraq has experienced functional changes over the past 100 years, as the city is characterized by the presence of significant tourist and socio-economic activity represented by religious tourism, and it occur due to various reasons such as urbanization. The purpose of this study is to apply a Markov model to analyze and predict the behavior of transforming the use of land in Karbala city over time. This can include the conversion of agricultural land, or other areas into residential, commercial, industrial land uses. The process of urbanization is typically driven by population growth, economic development, based on a set of probabilities and transitions bet

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Nuclear Engineering And Radiation Science
Radon and Exhalation Rate Measurement of Soil Samples in Al-Amiriya Area in Baghdad Governorate Using a Nuclear Track Detector
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Abstract<p>Radon is the most dangerous natural radioactive component affecting the human population, since it is a radioactive gas that results from the decomposition process of uranium deposits in soil, rocks, and water, and it is damaging both humans and the ecosystem. The radon concentrations and exhalation rate in soil samples from various locations were determined using a passive approach with a CR-39 (CR-39 is Columbia Resin #39; it is allyl diglycol carbonate C12H18O7) detector in Amiriya region in Baghdad Governorate. The average values of radon concentrations are ranged from 47.3 to 54.2 Bq·m−3. From the obtained results, we can conclude that the values of all studied locations are</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Dentistry
The Effect of Different Obturation Techniques in Primary Teeth on the Apical Microleakage using Endoflas: A Comparative In Vitro Study
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Objectives. This study was carried out to quantitatively evaluate and compare the sealing ability of Endoflas by using differentobturation techniques. Materials and Methods. After 42 extracted primary maxillary incisors and canines were decoronated, theircanals were instrumented with K files of size ranging from #15 to #50. In accordance with the obturation technique, the sampleswere divided into three experimental groups, namely, group I: endodontic pressure syringe, group II: modified disposable syringe,and group III: reamer technique, and two control groups. Dye extraction method was used for leakage evaluation. Data wereanalyzed using one-way ANOVA and Dunnett’s T3 post hoc tests. The level of significance was set at p<0:05. Results.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 19 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Role of Ginkgo biloba Extract as Monotherapy in Improving the Outcomes of Patients with Metabolic Syndrome: A Pilot Comparative Study with Metformin
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The present study evaluates the effects of Ginkgo biloba extract as monotherapy on the glycemic status, insulin resistance (IR), body mass index (BMI), and visceral adiposity index (VAI), in addition to the inflammatory markers, oxidative status and leptin level in patients with metabolic syndrome in comparison with metformin.

The study is a randomized, double-blind pilot study conducted during the period May to September, 2020. Fifty patients were recruited in the study and they were allocated into two groups (25 per each group): Ginkgo biloba and Metformin groups, they received (120 mg Ginkgo biloba extract/ capsule) and (500 mg Metformin/ capsule) respectively; orally as a single dose for 90 days. Blood samples were taken at z

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation for the Effect of Heat Stable Enterotoxin (a) Produced by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli on Different Cancer Cells In Vitro
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This study was conducted for evaluating the cytotoxic effect of heat stable enterotoxin a (STa) produced by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli on the proliferation of primary cancer cell cultures, obtained from tumor samples that were collected from (13) cancer patients and as follows: (five colon cancer patients, two bladder cancer patients, two breast cancer patients, two stomach cancer patients and two lung cancer patients), and on normal cell line (rat embryonic fibroblast / REF) (in vitro) with the use of different concentrations starting from (1) mg/ml and ending with (0.0002) mg/ml by making two fold serial dilutions by using the 96- well microtiter plate, and in comparison with negative (PBS) and positive (MMC, at concentration

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Carbon Dioxide Availability in Inlands Rivers Is Driven by Dissolved Organic Carbon, Not Warming: A Case Study of Tigris River
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الانهار اصبحت مشبعة بثاني اوكسيد الكربون بشكل عالي وبذلك فهي تلعب دور مهم في كميات الكربون العالمية. لزيادة فهمنا حول مصادر الكربون المتوفرة في النظم البيئية النهرية، تم اجراء هذه الدراسة حول تأثير الكربون العضوي المذاب والحرارة (العوامل الرئيسية لتغير المناخ) كمحركات رئيسية لوفرة ثاني اوكسيد الكربون في الانهار. تم جمع العينات من خمسة واربعون موقع في ثلاثة اجزاء رئيسية لنهر دجلة داخل مدينة بغداد خلال فص

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 02 2024
Journal Name
المجلة السياسية والدولية
Strategies for international negotiation with uncooperative countries: North Korea as an example
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Notwithstanding the importance of international cooperation as the other facet of international interactions, a strategy of conflict resolution, a maintainer of international peace and security, its provision in the United Nations conventions, as an objective of the United Nations after the international peace and security, however, the recognition of international cooperation has not been underlined by global, intellectual think tanks. While realism emphasized on the state's role in achieving international cooperation to ensure mutual and multilateral interests, liberalism focused on the role of international organizations in building such cooperation. Additionally, constructivist approaches developed other sub-variables to contribute to t

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 27 2018
Journal Name
Mustansiria Dental Journal
The Effect of Modified Carisolv Gel on Surface Roughness of two Different Types of Ceramic Materials Using Light Polarizing Microscope
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This in vitro study evaluated the influence of chemomechanical caries removal solution on the surface topography of metal-ceramic feldspar porcelain (MAJOR ceramic) and All-ceramic feldspar porcelain (Vita Alpha) using light polarizing microscope. Forty specimens of MAJOR ceramic and forty specimens of Vita Alpha ceramic of (12mm diameter & 3mm height) were prepared .All specimens were polished with silicon polishing burs, cleaned, autoglazed and stored in 37°C before exposure to Carisolv. Thirty specimens of each material randomly exposed to Carisolv gel for 5, 10 and 20 minutes respectively, other ten specimens were not, to act as control group. All specimens were subjected to surface roughness test by profilometer and evalua

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The impact of the Arab Islamic environment on contemporary painting" The artist Abdul Rahman Al-Suleiman as a model".: محمود حسين عبد الرحمن
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  This research means a study (the impact of the Arab-Islamic environment on contemporary painting, the artist Abd al-Rahman al-Suleiman as a model). The research falls into two axes: the first: the theoretical axis, and the second: the applied axis. The first axis dealt with an introduction that contained: (the research problem, its importance, its goal, its limits, and the definition of terms). This research aims to uncover (the impact of the Arab-Islamic environment on contemporary painting, and the artist Suleiman was a model). And the research limits spatially: Saudi Arabia, and temporally: 2010-2014. This theme included two topics: The first: the characteristics of the Saudi environment and its impact on art. The second: the s

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