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Application of the One-Step Second-Derivative Method for Solving the Transient Distribution in Markov Chain
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Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of the Spectral Energy Distribution Model of the Protoplanetary Disk Geometric around the Brown Dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4
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The accretion circumstellar disk of young stars and the Brown dwarf plays an essential role in the formation and evaluation of the planet. Our main work in this paper is to investigate the geometrical shape model for the protoplanetary disk around one of the Brown Dwarfs. The photometric measurements for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4 were extracted from the Vizier archive. We used a numerical simulation to build a model of the spectral energy distribution of our target CFHT-BD-Tau 4. The spectral energy distribution model was fitted with observational data for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4. A transitional disk has been assumed around CFHT-BD-Tau 4. We obtained physical properties of the two disks and the size of the gap between them

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Publication Date
Tue May 23 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Simulation of Ice Melting Using the Finite Volume Method
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The Aim of this paper is to investigate numerically the simulation of ice melting in one and two dimension using the cell-centered finite volume method. The mathematical model is based on the heat conduction equation associated with a fixed grid, latent heat source approach. The fully implicit time scheme is selected to represent the time discretization. The ice conductivity is chosen
to be the value of the approximated conductivity at the interface between adjacent ice and water control volumes. The predicted temperature distribution, percentage melt fraction, interface location and its velocity is compared with those obtained from the exact analytical solution. A good agreement is obtained when comparing the numerical results of one

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimate The Mean of Normal Distribution Via Preliminary Test Shrinkage Technique
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 This paper is concerned with preliminary test single stage shrinkage estimators for the mean (q) of normal distribution with known variance s2 when a prior estimate (q0) of the actule value (q) is available, using specifying shrinkage weight factor y( ) as well as pre-test region (R).         Expressions for the Bias, Mean Squared Error [MSE( )] and Relative Efficiency [R.Eff.( )] of proposed estimators are derived. Numerical results and conclusions are drawn about selection different constants including in these expressions. Comparisons between suggested estimators with respect to usual estimators in the sense of Relative Efficiency are given. Furthermore, comparisons with the earlier existi

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
On Estimation of the Stress – Strength Reliability Based on Lomax Distribution
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Abstract<p>The present paper concerns with the problem of estimating the reliability system in the stress – strength model under the consideration non identical and independent of stress and strength and follows Lomax Distribution. Various shrinkage estimation methods were employed in this context depend on Maximum likelihood, Moment Method and shrinkage weight factors based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Comparisons among the suggested estimation methods have been made using the mean absolute percentage error criteria depend on MATLAB program.</p>
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of alcoholic and cold aqueous extracts of Melia azedarch(L.) and Actellic insectiside in the second larval instars of Oryzaephilus surinamensis
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The effect of alcoholic extract (2%,4%, 12%) and the fruits aqueous extract (12%,15%,25%,35%) of Melia azedarach and actellic insecticide of 0.01 concentration were tested on the second instar larvae ofOryzaephilus surinamensis .The obtained resuls were reveated that the highest kill ratio 80% at the concentration 12% of the alchoholic extract and 85% of the aqueous extract this was reflected effect abstracts on low rate of age adult emerging of larve treated and low productivity

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Iterative Reweighting Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Calculate The Estimation of The Parameters Of The Maximum Likelihood of The Skew Normal Distribution
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Excessive skewness which occurs sometimes in the data is represented as an obstacle against normal distribution. So, recent studies have witnessed activity in studying the skew-normal distribution (SND) that matches the skewness data which is regarded as a special case of the normal distribution with additional skewness parameter (α), which gives more flexibility to the normal distribution. When estimating the parameters of (SND), we face the problem of the non-linear equation and by using the method of Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) their solutions will be inaccurate and unreliable. To solve this problem, two methods can be used that are: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the iterative reweighting algorithm (IR) based on the M

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Oral And Maxillofacial Surgery, Medicine, And Pathology
Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2B: Maxillofacial finding in one case
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Entrepreneur Decision Making on Ambidexterity Performance: An Applied Research in the Oil Products Distribution Company/ aldawra
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The research aims to determine the role of Entrepreneur decision-making in its dimensions in improving the activities of Ambidexterity performance in its dimensions in the researched company. The importance of the research is also evidenced by assisting the oil products distribution company/session in directing the interest of the researched company because it has a prominent role in the Iraqi industrial community for the Entrepreneur decision-making variable that Contributes to building sustainable competitive advantage. This will happen when the company has an Entrepreneur orientation and a good strategic plan is built by the smart leaders in the researched company The researcher adopted the method of the analyti

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Relationship between ABO Blood Group Distribution and the incidence of Upper Gastric and Duodenal Ulcer in Iraqi Patients
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The relationship between blood group antigens and peptic ulcer disease has been widely evaluated in the past, but only one study relating H pylori seroprevalence to ABO blood groups among Iraqi patients with peptic ulcer disease is available. We aimed to evaluate the frequency of peptic ulcer disease among different ABO blood groups in Iraqi patients, and we thought it was worthwhile to try to determine whether these components take some part in disease etiology. One hundred and six patients with peptic ulcer disease (PUD) (43 male and 63 female; mean  age: 48 ± 18 years) who attended Baghdad teaching hospital and Al- Yarmouk teaching hospital endoscopy centers were enrolled , and 238 control Subjects.  Fing

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Iet Conference Proceedings
Spatial quantile autoregressive model with application to poverty rates in the districts of Iraq
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This research aims to provide insight into the Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression model (SARQR), which is more general than the Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR) and Quantile Regression model (QR) by integrating aspects of both. Since Bayesian approaches may produce reliable estimates of parameter and overcome the problems that standard estimating techniques, hence, in this model (SARQR), they were used to estimate the parameters. Bayesian inference was carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Several criteria were used in comparison, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R^2). The application was devoted on dataset of poverty rates acro

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