Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
Polycyclicacetal was prepared from the reaction of PEG with aldehyde derived from Erythro-ascorbic acid (pentulosono-ɣ-lactone-2,3-enedianisoate).All these compounds were characterized by Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC) and FTIR spectra and aldehyde was also characterized by (U.V-Vis), 1HNMR, 13CNMR, and mass spectra.The inhibitory effect of prepared polymer on the activity of human serum AcetylCholinesterase has been studied in vitro. The polymer showed a remarkable activity at low concentration (4.7x10-3 – 4.7x10-8M).
This research aims to provide insight into the Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression model (SARQR), which is more general than the Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR) and Quantile Regression model (QR) by integrating aspects of both. Since Bayesian approaches may produce reliable estimates of parameter and overcome the problems that standard estimating techniques, hence, in this model (SARQR), they were used to estimate the parameters. Bayesian inference was carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Several criteria were used in comparison, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R^2). The application was devoted on dataset of poverty rates acro
... Show MoreThe acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution, when life time experiment is truncated at a pre-determined time are provided in this article. The two parameters (α, λ), (Scale parameters and Shape parameters) are estimated by LSE, WLSE and the Best Estimator’s for various samples sizes are used to find the ratio of true mean time to a pre-determined, and are used to find the smallest possible sample size required to ensure the producer’s risks, with a pre-fixed probability (1 - P*). The result of estimations and of sampling plans is provided in tables.
Key words: Generalized Exponential Distribution, Acceptance Sampling Plan, and Consumer’s and Producer Risks
... Show MoreAbstract: Colloidal gold nanoparticles (ringworm Palm or in the form of paper willow) have been prepared from HAuCl4 containing aqueous solution by hot chemical reduction method. The colloidal gold nanoparticles were characterized by SEM, EDX, and UV-VIS absorption spectroscopy. It was found that the variation of reduction time from boiling point affects the size of the nanoparticles and also in chemical reduction approach the size of nanoparticles can be controlled by varying the amount of variation the volume of reductant material with respect to the volume of HAuCL4.
A simple and novel method was developed by combination of dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction with UV spectrophotometry for the preconcentartion and determination of trace amount of malathion. The presented method is based on using a small volume of ethylenechloride as the extraction solvent was dissolved in ethanol as the dispersive solvent, then the binary solution was rapidly injected by a syringe into the water sample containing malathion. The important parameters, such the type and volume of extraction solvent and disperser solvent, the effect of extraction time and rate, the effect of salt addition and reaction conditions were studied. At the optimum conditions, the calibration graph was linear in the range of 2-100 ng mL-1 of ma
... Show MoreBackground: Wound healing is a complex dynamical interaction between various cell types, the extracellular matrix, cytokines, and growth factors. osteoponetin is a substance that acts as an anti-inflammatory. Aims of study: The study was designed to identify the role of local exogenous applications of osteopontin on wound healing (in cheek skin). Materials and methods: Thirty adult male albino rats weighting an average of (250-300gm) used in this study, incisional wounds were made in the skin of the cheek of rat and they were divided into the following groups: A-Control group: 15 rats treated with 1µ l of normal saline B-Experimental groups: 15 rats treated with topical application of 1µl osteopontin. The scarification of animals we
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Abstract
This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing, the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura, Semawa, Najaif) Considering the demand of each product (Gasoline, Kerosene,Gas Oil, Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution, which are testing by using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution . &
... Show MoreDeepFake is a concern for celebrities and everyone because it is simple to create. DeepFake images, especially high-quality ones, are difficult to detect using people, local descriptors, and current approaches. On the other hand, video manipulation detection is more accessible than an image, which many state-of-the-art systems offer. Moreover, the detection of video manipulation depends entirely on its detection through images. Many worked on DeepFake detection in images, but they had complex mathematical calculations in preprocessing steps, and many limitations, including that the face must be in front, the eyes have to be open, and the mouth should be open with the appearance of teeth, etc. Also, the accuracy of their counterfeit detectio
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