Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
The problem of Bi-level programming is to reduce or maximize the function of the target by having another target function within the constraints. This problem has received a great deal of attention in the programming community due to the proliferation of applications and the use of evolutionary algorithms in addressing this kind of problem. Two non-linear bi-level programming methods are used in this paper. The goal is to achieve the optimal solution through the simulation method using the Monte Carlo method using different small and large sample sizes. The research reached the Branch Bound algorithm was preferred in solving the problem of non-linear two-level programming this is because the results were better.
This study was for searching for Cholera Bacteria serotype which causes epidemiology Cholera in the 2007 in a fast method which contains (Rapid Visual Test) (Crystal V.C.) which was used for the first time in Iraq to diagnosis of Cholera Bacteria & compared with the traditional bacteriology method. The Cholera disease is one of the most dangerous epidemiological diseases which lead to death with a percentage of (50 – 70) % in the severe cases for untreated patients . For this purpose, 100 samples of stool from the patients from a (13) hospitals in Baghdad Governorate in the period from August to the end of December. The Cholera was diagnosis in two methods, 1st method was the fast method using the nitrocellulose which is coated with anti-
... Show MoreFinite element modeling of transient temperature distribution is used to understand physical phenomena occurring during the dwell (penetration) phase and moving of welding tool in friction stir welding (FSW) of 5mm plate made of 7020-T53 aluminum alloy at 1400rpm and 40mm/min.
Thermocouples are used in locations near to the pin and under shoulder surface to study the welding tool penetration in the workpiece in advance and retreate sides along welding line in three positions (penetrate (start welding) , mid, pullout (end welding)).
Numerical results of ANSYS 12.0 package are compared to experimental data including axial load measurements at different tool rotational speeds (710rpm.900rpm.1120rpm and 1400rpm) Based on the experiment
In the present article, we implement the new iterative method proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari (NIM) [V. Daftardar-Gejji, H. Jafari, An iterative method for solving nonlinear functional equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 316 (2006) 753-763] to solve two problems; the first one is the problem of spread of a non-fatal disease in a population which is assumed to have constant size over the period of the epidemic, and the other one is the problem of the prey and predator. The results demonstrate that the method has many merits such as being derivative-free, overcome the difficulty arising in calculating Adomian polynomials to handle the nonlinear terms in Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM), does not require to calculate Lagrange multiplier a
... Show MoreThree-dimensional nonlinear thermal numerical simulations are conducted for the friction stir welding (FSW) of AA 7020-T53. Three welding cases with tool (rotational and travel) speeds of 900rpm-40mm/min, 1400rpm-16mm/min and 1400rpm-40mm/in are analyzed. The objective is to study the variation of transient temperature in a friction stir welded plate of 5mm workpiece thickness. Based on the experimental records of transient temperature at several specific locations during the friction stir welding process for the AA 7020-T53, thermal numerical simulation is developed. The numerical results show that the temperature field in the FSW process is symmetrically distributed with respect to the welding line, increasing travel speed decreasing tran
... Show MoreThe researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
... Show MoreStatistical methods and statistical decisions making were used to arrange and analyze the primary data to get norms which are used with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis programs to identify the animals production and poultry units in strategic nutrition channels, also the priorities of food insecurity through the local production and import when there is no capacity for production. The poultry production is one of the most important commodities that satisfy human body protein requirements, also the most important criteria to measure the development and prosperity of nations. The poultry fields of Babylon Governorate are located in Abi Ghareg and Al_Kifil centers according to many criteria or factors such as the popu
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