Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
Variable selection is an essential and necessary task in the statistical modeling field. Several studies have triedto develop and standardize the process of variable selection, but it isdifficultto do so. The first question a researcher needs to ask himself/herself what are the most significant variables that should be used to describe a given dataset’s response. In thispaper, a new method for variable selection using Gibbs sampler techniqueshas beendeveloped.First, the model is defined, and the posterior distributions for all the parameters are derived.The new variable selection methodis tested usingfour simulation datasets. The new approachiscompared with some existingtechniques: Ordinary Least Squared (OLS), Least Absolute Shrinkage
... Show MoreIn this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .
Maulticollinearity is a problem that always occurs when two or more predictor variables are correlated with each other. consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with biased estimates results, There are several methods which are proposed to handle this problem including the method To address a problem and method To address a problem , In this research a comparisons are employed between the biased method and unbiased method with Bayesian using Gamma distribution method addition to Ordinary Least Square metho
... Show MoreThe objective of the study: To diagnose the reality of the relationship between the fluctuations in world oil prices and their reflection on the trends of government spending on the various economic sectors.
The research found: that public expenditures contribute to the increase of national consumption through the purchase of consumer goods by the state for the performance of the state's duties or the payment of wages to employees in the public sector and thus have a direct impact on national consumption
The results of the standard tests showed that there is no common integration between the oil price fluctuations and the government expenditure on the security sector through the A
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Public relations are amongst the social sciences that rely on scientific methods in achieving new knowledge or resolving existing problems by means of its scientific researches that are often applied and require a classification in terms of their results’ analysis. It also requires subtle statistical processes whether in constructing their material or in analyzing and interpreting their results.
This research seeks to identify the relation between public relations and statistics, and the significance a researcher or practitioner in the domain of public relations should assign to statistics being one of the important criteria in identifying the accuracy and object
... Show MoreWe discussed the proper preparation, directing, and implementation of physical education lessons, and clarification of the duties that fall upon the physical education teacher in addition to his physical and skill duties, which is the duty of the physical education lesson. The problem of the research lies in the fact that interactive harmonic exercises are not implemented accurately by physical education teachers because they require great experience, exceptional efforts, and accuracy in performance. The research aims to identify the level of some physical and motor abilities and intelligence among students aged (9-10) years, and to know the effect of some harmonic exercises. Interactivity at the level of some physical and motor abi
... Show MoreExperience the Islamic financial industry faces many challenges, most notably the lack of proper risk management tools that meet the requirements of legality and economic efficiency advantage from another side, so it requires the search for innovative ways to manage the risk of Islamic banking, Islamic finance industry is manufacture up-to-date, if compared with the financial industry (traditional), which increases the problematic of risk management in the Islamic financial industry nature of treatment which should be compatible with Islamic law, as well as economic efficiency, thereby Progress came the importance of research to highlight the entrance to Islamic financial engineering and the goals sought to be achieved through the use of
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This study comes as: The responsibility of the Iraqi newspapers in promoting the political culture inside society, an analytical study in newspapers: Al-Sabah, Al-Ittihad, Al-Aalam for 2/ 3/ 2013 to 31/ 3/ 2013 to spot light on the extent to which the three mentioned newspapers are compliance with the promotion of the political culture inside society which is seen as one of the essential requirements for the success and promotion of the democratic process inside society.
The study aims to: finding out the extent to which these newspapers are compliance with their responsibility in the promoting the political culture inside society; knowing the nature of their role in pr
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