The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract:

The great expansion of teaching skills requires finding ways and methods to help teachers acquire experiences of all kinds. The researcher found in the subject of the teaching skills for teachers in public and private schools a fertile field for conducting a study that enables the measurement of these skills. Thus, the study aims to identify the skills of teaching lessons for teachers, the difference in teaching lesson skills for teachers according to the years of service, the differences in teaching lesson skills for teachers according to the specialized teachers and non-specialized teachers, the differences in teaching lesson skills for teachers according to the public and private school. The

(Thimma) in Arabic means compact, and immunity. (People of Thimma) are the free non-Muslim people under Muslim rule. This includes Heavenly Religions people, i. e., Christian and Jews).
They have been called (People of Thimma) because they had paid (Jizyah: tribute) so they became safe for their souls, honor, properties at the custody of Muslims.
Islamic law had posed (Jizyah: tribute) upon the Jews and Christians who were living under Muslim rule as a reaction of not embracing Islam Faith against securing their rights and freedom.
Freedoms secured by Islam for the (People of Thimma) had been many, including the right of faith, not coercing them to be Muslim, the right to live, to possess properties, protect and secure them, the

The article approaches the characteristics of Russian literature in the time of Khrushchev or the "thaw" period a very short period of Soviet history, characterized by the easing of the dictatorship of power and relaxation in various areas of people's lives. The interest in the research is focused on the importance of interpreting the family portrait in a short but distinct period in the development of Russian/Soviet literature. The research material is the story of Sholokhov's “The Fate of Man” 1956, the story of Panova “Serioga” 1955, and Abramov’s story “Fatherless” 1961. В статье рассматриваются особенности художественной литературы периода хруще

This work presents a simple method for determination of the neutron reflection coefficient (n) as a function of different neutron reflector materials.A laboratory neutron source (Am-Be) with activity of 16 ci is employed with a (BF3) neutron detector. Am-BeThree types of reflector materials are used as samples, the thickness of each sample is (5cm).It is found that( ?7) is: -For polyethlyene = 0.818

Abstract\

In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the

This research is an initial attempt to explore the reality of education and its concept in Islam, and to describe the presence of educational practices in the Arab-Islamic heritage. The importance of this research lies in addressing a set of important issues related to the contemporary Islamic educational system. The research revealed the extent of the need for authentic educational values that draw their reference from the origins of Islam, and it emphasized the analysis of the reality of education in the Islamic world and the identification of its problems and the finding of solutions through a quick and comprehensive look at the diverse contributions of Muslimthinkers to Islamic educational thought, and their active ro