The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Background : Hyperglycosylated hCG a newly discovered variant of hCG which can be used as a predictor of invasion of trophoblastic cells in patient with gestational trophoblastic disease. Objectives : To measure hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotrophin and to assess how far it can be used as predictor of invasion in invasive mole and choriocarcinoma. Study design control study. Setting: : Case Gynecological department in Baghdad Teaching Hospital from January 2016 to January 2017. Patient and Methods : 60 women were enrolled in this study 30 of them were with gestational trophoblastic disease (no.= 30 ) the remainder were normal pregnancy (no. =30) , hCG –H level was measured in both groups. Results : Mean serum hCG-H le

Worldwide, hundreds of millions of people have been infected with COVID-19 since December 2019; however, about 20% or less developed severe symptoms. The main aim of the current study was to  assess  the  relationship  between  the  severity of Covid-19 and different clinical and laboratory parameters. A total number of 466 Arabs have willingly joined this prospective cohort. Out of the total number, 297 subjects (63.7%) had negative COVID-19 tests, and thus, they were recruited as controls, while 169 subjects (36.3%) who tested positive for COVID-19 were enrolled as cases. Out of the total number of COVID-19 patients, 127 (75.15%) presented with mild symptoms, and 42 (24.85%) had severe symptoms. The age range for the partic

The present study aims to study the correlation between visfatin levels and metabolic syndrome in Iraqi obese adolescence (with and without metabolic syndrome) and its relation with other studied biochemical parameters. Sixty obese adolescences were depended in this study (with and without metabolic syndrome), compared with (30) non-obese children as control group. This study was done in the period from April 2020 until the end of December 2020, in the National Diabetes Centre/Mustansiriya University, Baghdad/Iraq. There were no significant differences in age, height, waist circumferences (WC), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in the patients' groups. In contrast, a significant increase differs (p<0.05) was recorded in the values of

Abstract Aim: Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder which affects communication and social interaction of children. It is a heterogeneous disease with various clinical presentations. Some genes are involved in its pathogenesis. It has been suggested that environmental exposure to lead can increase the risk of autism. The aim of our study was to compare blood lead levels among autistic and non-autistic children. Material and Method: This retrospective study included 107 children (60 with autism and 47 without autism) referred from the different Iraqi provinces, in the years 2015, 2016 and 2017, to the poisoning consultation center in Baghdad. Data collection including age, gender, residence, referral source, family history and blood lead l

Background: Multiple sclerosis is a chronic heterogeneous demyelinating axonal and inflammatory disease involving the Central Nervous System [CNS] white matter with a possibility of gray matter involvement in which the insulating covers of nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord are damaged. This damage disrupts the ability of parts of the nervous system to communicate, resulting in a wide range of signs and symptoms. Cerebral venous insufficiency theory was raised as a possible etiology for the disease at 2008 by Zamboni an Italian cardiothoracic surgeon. This theory was defeated by Multiple Sclerosis[ MS] researchers and scientists who thought that the disease is an autoimmune rather than vascular.

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One of the most suitable materials to be used in latent heat thermal energy storage system (LHTES) are Phase change materials, but a problem of slow melting and solidification processes made many researchers focusing on how to improve their thermal properties. This experimental work concerned with the enhancing of thermal conductivity of phase change material. The enhancing method was by the addition of copper Lessing rings in phase change material (paraffin wax). The effect of diameter for the used rings was studied by using two different diameters (0.5 cm and 1cm). Also, three volumetric percentages of rings addition (3%, 6% and 10%) were tested for each diameter. The discharging process was done with

Construction is a complicated process that takes place in an almost uncontrollable environment. Although projects can be carefully planned in advance in principle, there is a chance that unforeseen events and crises can disrupt these plans, affecting project development. Because the initial investment expenditures in construction projects are so large, they may be quickly influenced by crises, resulting in significant financial losses. The 2014 financial crisis was one of the most prominent crises that Iraq faced, which significantly impacted various activities in general and the construction industry in particular. Despite the importance of crisis management systems, the researchers found a great lack of local studies l