The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

In this paper a prey - predator model with harvesting on predator species with infectious disease in prey population only has been proposed and analyzed. Further, in this model, Holling type-IV functional response for the predation of susceptible prey and Lotka-Volterra functional response for the predation of infected prey as well as linear incidence rate for describing the transition of disease are used. Our aim is to study the effect of harvesting and disease on the dynamics of this model.

In this paper, a harvested prey-predator model involving infectious disease in prey is considered. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are carried out. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that the existence of disease and harvesting can give rise to multiple attractors, including chaos, with variations in critical parameters.

An integrated GIS-VBA (Geographical Information System – Visual Basic for Application), model is developed for selecting an optimum water harvesting dam location among an available locations in a watershed. The proposed model allows quick and precise estimation of an adopted weighted objective function for each selected location. In addition to that for each location, a different dam height is used as a nominee for optimum selection. The VBA model includes an optimization model with a weighted objective function that includes beneficiary items (positive) , such as the available storage , the dam height allowed by the site as an indicator for the potential of hydroelectric power generation , the rainfall rate as a source of water . In a

      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

The objective of this study was to progress another method for coagulation/flocculation of the microalga Chlorella vulgaris via pellet-forming of the fungal species Aspergillus niger which was isolated from municipal wastewater mud and the facultative heterotrophic microalga "C.vulgaris was used. The main factors studies were spore inoculums, organic carbon concentration in medium as well as pH variation which had considerably positive effects on microalgae/fungi co-pelletization formation. The process parameters are an inoculum1×104 spores/ML, 15 g/l sucrose as carbon source and pH ranged from 5 - 7.0 were found optimal for efficient microalgae/fungi co-pelletization formation. For autotrophic growth, when pH of culture broth was adjusted

The aim of this paper is adopted to give an approximate solution for advection dispersion equation of time fractional order derivative by using the Chebyshev wavelets-Galerkin Method . The Chebyshev wavelet and Galerkin method properties are presented. This technique is used to convert the problem into the solution of linear algebraic equations. The fractional derivatives are described based on the Caputo sense. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the proposed technique.

In this work, we are concerned with how to find an explicit approximate solution (AS) for the telegraph equation of space-fractional order (TESFO) using Sumudu transform method (STM). In this method, the space-fractional order derivatives are defined in the Caputo idea. The Sumudu method (SM) is established to be reliable and accurate. Three examples are discussed to check the applicability and the simplicity of this method. Finally, the Numerical results are tabulated and displayed graphically whenever possible to make comparisons between the AS and exact solution (ES).

This paper presents an analytical study for the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow of a generalized Burgers’ fluid in an annular pipe. Closed from solutions for velocity is obtained by using finite Hankel transform and discrete Laplace transform of the sequential fractional derivatives. Finally, the figures are plotted to show the effects of different parameters on the velocity profile.

In this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.