Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Iraqi crude Atmospheric residual fraction supplied from al-Dura refinery was treated to remove metals contaminants by solvent extraction method, with various hydrocarbon solvents and concentrations. The extraction method using three different type solvent (n-hexane, n-heptane, and light naphtha) were found to be effective for removal of oil-soluble metals from heavy atmospheric residual fraction. Different solvents with using three different hydrocarbon solvents (n-hexane, n-heptane, and light naphtha) .different variables were studied solvent/oil ratios (4/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, and 15/1), different intervals of perceptual (15, 30-60, 90 and 120 min) and different temperature (30, 45, 60 and 90 °C) were used. The metals removal percent we

The electrical properties of pure NiO and NiO:Au Films which are
deposited on glass substrate with various dopant concentrations
(1wt.%, 2wt%, 3wt.% and 4wt.%) at room temperature 450 Co
annealing temperature will be presented. The results of the hall effect
showed that all the films were p-type. The Hall mobility decreases
while both carrier concentration and conductivity increases with the
increasing of annealing temperatures and doping percentage, Thus,
indicating the behavior of semiconductor, and also the D.C
conductivity from which the activation energy decrease with the
doping concentration increase and transport mechanism of the charge
carriers can be estimated.

The aim of present work is to improve mechanical and fatigue properties for Aluminum alloy7049 by using Nano composites technique. The ZrO₂ with an average grain diameter of 30-40 nm, was selected as Nano particles, to reinforce Aluminum alloy7049 with different percentage as, 2, 4, 6 and 7 %. The Stir casting method was used to fabricate the Nano composites materials due to economical route for improvement and processing of metal matrix composites. The experimental results were shown that the adding of zirconium oxide (ZrO₂) as reinforced material leads to improve mechanical properties. The best percentage of improvement of mechanical properties of 7049 AA was with 4% wt. of ZrO₂ about (7.76% ) for ultim

An experimental and theoretical study has been done to investigate the thermal performance of different types of air solar collectors, In this work air solar collector with a dimensions of (120 cm x90 cm x12 cm) , was tested under climate condition of  Baghdad city with a (43° tilt angel)  by using  the absorber plate (1.45 mm thickness, 115 cm height x 84 cm width), which was manufactured from iron painted with a black matt.

The experimental test deals with five types of absorber:-

 Conventional smooth flat plate absorber , Finned absorber , Corrugated absorber plate, Iron wire mesh on absorber And matrix of porous media  on absorber .

The hourly and average efficiency of the collectors

This work dealt with separation of naphthenic hydrocarbons from non-naphthenic hydrocarbons and in particular concerns an improved process for increasing the naphthenes concentration in naphtha, The separation was examined using adsorption by Y and  B zeolite in a fixed bed process. The concentration of naphthenes in the influent and effluent streams was determined using PONA classification. The effect of different operating variables such as feed flow rate (2- 4 L/hr); bed length (50 - 80 cm) on the adsorption capacity of Y and  zeolite was studied. Increasing the bed length lead to increase the naphthenes concentration, and increasing the flow rate lead to decrease in the concentration of naphthenes, It was found that the decrease

Iraqi crude Atmospheric residual fraction supplied from al-Dura refinery was treated to remove metals contaminants by solvent extraction method, with various hydrocarbon solvents and concentrations. The extraction method using three different type solvent (n-hexane, n-heptane, and light naphtha) were found to be effective for removal of oil-soluble metals from heavy atmospheric residual fraction. Different solvents with using three different hydrocarbon solvents (n-hexane, n-heptane, and light naphtha) .different variables were studied solvent/oil ratios (4/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, and 15/1), different intervals of perceptual (15, 30-60, 90 and 120 min) and different temperature (30, 45, 60 and 90 °C) were used. The metals removal perce

Two simple methods spectrophotometric were suggested for the determination of Cefixime (CFX) in pure form and pharmaceutical preparation. The first method is based without cloud point (CPE) on diazotization of the Cefixime drug by sodium nitrite at 5Cº followed by coupling with ortho nitro phenol in basic medium to form orange colour. The product was stabilized and measured 400 nm. Beer’s law was obeyed in the concentration range of (10-160) μg∙mL^-1 Sandell’s sensitivity was 0.0888μg∙cm^-1, the detection limit was 0.07896μg∙mL^-1, and the limit of Quantitation was 0.085389μg∙mL^-1.The second method was cloud point extraction (CPE) with using  Trtion X-114 as surfactant. Beer

The aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of