Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

Abstract:

      In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach

In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade

An experimental study on a KIA pride (SAIPA 131) car model with scale of 1:14 in the wind tunnel was made beside the real car tests. Some of the modifications to passive flow control which are (vortex generator, spoiler and slice diffuser) were added to the car to reduce the drag force which its undesirable characteristic that increase fuel consumption and exhaust toxic gases. Two types of calculations were used to determine the drag force acting on the car body. Firstly, is by the integrating the values of pressure recorded along the pressure taps (for the wind tunnel and the real car testing), secondly, is by using one component balance device (wind tunnel testing) to measure the force. The results show that, the average drag estimated on

The study area is witnessing divergence where I am North wind North East wind as we find that the north wind is getting replicated as we move from the south, The reason can be attributed to the nature of the surface of the region, with at least repeat this wind the northern region to the presence of mountain ranges, while we find that energizes the surface in the center and south helped to increase repeat this wind gusts, It also finds that the North wind East prevail in the northern region and least replicated as we move from the north to the south and to the fact that North stations are within blowing this wind sites for the circles near the display of high pressure located centers to the north-east, north and distancing itself from pa

This paper aims to identify the approaches used in assessment the credit applications by Iraqi banks, as well as which approach is most used. It also attempted to link these approaches with reduction of credit default and banks’ efficiency particularly for the Gulf Commercial Bank. The paper found that the Gulf Bank widely relies on the method of Judgment Approach for assessment the credit applications in order to select the best of them with low risk of default. In addition, the paper found that the method of Judgment Approach was very important for the Gulf Bank and it driven in reduction the ratio of credit default as percentage of total credit. However, it is important to say that the adoption of statistical approaches for

During the study the current selection seven stations in the Zab River bottom and the Tigris River took samples a month to study the signs of bacterial contamination study coliform and colon fecal Almsobhaat and Almsobhaat Bazah and the total number of bacteria and bacterial gangrene gas causing Knkeran as well as a study to isolate and diagnose some races and types of bacterial pathogens in water or intensityusing the traditional system and the system of intestinal bacteria

The research aims to shed light on the importance of forensic accounting and its impact on the outcome of the activity of the Iraqi general insurance company by winning the lawsuits filed against the company because the forensic accountant (the judicial expert) possesses the ability to interpret and analyze the data. The research community represents the insurance companies in Iraq. Iraqi insurance, and the researchers adopted the descriptive approach in covering the theoretical aspect and the deductive approach in covering the practical side, depending on the financial statements of the Iraqi insurance company for the years of research.

One of the most important conclusions reached by the researchers was that forensic accounting

Baqubah city has grown extremely rapidly. The rate of growth exceeds the growth of services that must grow side by side with the growth of population. There are natural features that affect the growth of Baqubah city such as Dieyala river, Alssariya river, in addition to agricultural areas .All these natural features affect the growth of Baqubah city in the running form being seen . In this research the remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques are used for monitoring urban expansion and forecasting the probable axes to the growth of the city, and found that the probability of Baqubah growth to east is preferred due to Baqubah growth to the east would never interfere with natural features. Also in this res