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Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar with the relevant studies mortality, and rarely used in studying of fertility (in the Arab world, at least). This model is based on the idea of singular value analysis on a hand, and taking time series impact on the phenomenon into consideration on the other.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 13 2014
Journal Name
Environmental Monitoring And Assessment
Estimating the health risks associated with air pollution in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Exchange Rate of Iraqi Dinar between De facto Regime and De jure Regime in the Iraq during (2004-2012)
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         The understanding exchange rate policy is fundamental in order to identify the mechanism by which works out macroeconomic, And the vital for macroeconomic analysis and empirical work to differentiate between the de facto regimes and de jure regimes, Where the proved surveys and studies issued by the international monetary fund that there is divergence between the de facto regime (Regime of exchange applied by the country actually) and between the de jure regime (Regime de jure through the documents and formal writings of officials of the central bank), And launched studies on the de facto regime (Being a the basis of evaluating monetary policy) Stabilized (peg-like)arrangements or

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Reliability through the Wiener Degradation Process Based on the Genetic Algorithm to Estimating Parameters
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      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Structural Equation Modeling for Tourist Attraction Factors in Asir Region by Using Factor Analysis in the Light of Vision of kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) 2030
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The research aimed to modeling a structural equation for tourist attraction factors in Asir Region. The research population is the people in the region, and a simple random sample of 332 individuals were selected. The factor analysis as a reliable statistical method in this phenomenon was used to modeling and testing the structural model of tourism, and analyzing the data by using SPSS and AMOS statistical computerized programs. The study reached a number of results, the most important of them are: the tourist attraction factors model consists of five factors which explain 69.3% of the total variance. These are: the provision of tourist services, social and historic factors, mountains, weather and natural parks. And the differenc

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian Tobit Quantile Regression Model Using Four Level Prior Distributions
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      In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 23 2020
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal Of Pure Science
The ESTIMATING MARRIAGE AND DIVORCES AND COMPARING THEM USING NUMERICAL METHOD. . .
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In this paper, we describe the cases of marriage and divorce in the city of Baghdad on both sides of Rusafa and Karkh, we collected the data in this research from the Supreme Judicial Council and used the cubic spline interpolation method to estimate the function that passing through given points as well as the extrapolation method which was applied for estimating the cases of marriage and divorce for the next year and comparison between Rusafa and Karkh by using the MATLAB program.

Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Design a supply chain model for Baghdad Soft Drinks Company
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In this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

  

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
General Sales Tax and its Role in Public Revenuse in Jordan for the Duration (1998-2012)
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   This research aims to introduce the general tax on sales in gordan and the most important concepts related to this type of taxes and identify the  most  on characteristics and stand on its role in supplying the general budget of the necessary fundig to cover the over head of the state and the factorsinfluencing it and whether such a tax has been able to chieve the desired goals.including in contribute to an important and growing role in puplic revenues or not to be able to achieve these goals through the use of descriptive and analytical technique based on the data and information relevant.wasreached some conclusion and  recommendations was most important is that the general sales tax comes in

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