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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal Of Veterinary Medicine
Isolation and Molecular Identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacterium from Different Species of Fish in Karbala Province, Iraq
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This study was designed for isolation and molecular identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacterium (NTM) from fish during the period between October and December 2017 from Karbla province, Iraq. This study included 200 fresh fish samples from four different species including Spondyliosoma cantharus, Liza abu, Carassius carassius and Cyprinuscarpio. Three samples of each fish were taken including gills, muscles and all internal organs. The samples were processed by decontamination, concentration of 4% sodium hydroxide, and 0.1 ml of sediment was streaking on Löwenstein Johnson (LJ) media; then the bacterial cultures were incubated at 28-30 °C for 3days up to 4 weeks and suspected colonies were stained with acid fast stain to confir

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the relationship between inflation and the tax revenue in Iraq for the period 1990-2010
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The Iraqi economy has suffered for a long period of inflation because of the Iraq war and the resolutions and the sanctions that were imposed on Iraq, this phenomenon overshadowed at various aspects of the economy including the tax revenue that the State seeks to optimize the total income for the budget, the research covers the years 1990-2010, these years have been divided according to the country's economic variables.

The research  adopted on econometrics analysis that is based on the information and data available on topics and has been using statistical methods to test functions are formulated.

Research concluded that rates of inflation and GDP impact is limited to direct taxation and indirect in current prices a

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The importance of improved forests in Iraq and their impact on the economic and social future
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عانت الغابات في العراق قصوراً واضحاً في مجال إشباع حاجة السكان لمنتجاتها الرئيسية المتمثلة بالأخشاب ومنتجاتها الثانوية المتمثلة بالأغصان والأوراق والنباتات الطبيعية والحيوانات البرية ونواتجها الأخرى، مما يتطلب التفكير بمحاولة إيجاد سبل جديدة لحل هذه المشكلة الاقتصادية المرتبطة بعنصريها الحاجة للأخشاب والأموال المخصصة لتطويرها عموماً.

لقد دمرت مساحات كبيرة من الغابات وحرقت وقطعت من

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Women's Rape in Iraq between Legislation and Social Norms: A Critical Discourse Analysis
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Recently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Historical Succession of Equal Rain Lines in Iraq: سالار علي خضر الدزيي
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The current research focuses on examining the isohyets in a set of (3) climatic maps of Iraq. Two of these maps were published in the Iraq Climate Atlas and the third one was published in an English source about the geography of Iraq. The first map represents the period from 1923-to-1944, the second is for the period from 1961-to-1990, whereas the third represents the period from 1971-to-2000. Comparing among these three maps, it has become clear that there are noticeable changes of rain in Iraq. In the first map, which represents the decade of the twenties, thirties and early forties, Iraq was located between two Isohyet lines (127 mm) in the far south and (1270 mm) in the far north. As for the second map, which represents the sixties,

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 08 2022
Journal Name
مجلة حمورابي
العقيدة العسكرية للمنظمات الارهابية الحرب اللامتماثلة في العراق عام 2014 انموذحا
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
التضخم في العراق واحتساب مساهمة المجاميع السلعية فيه للمدة 2004 - 2009
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The inflation phenomenon inherent to all economies in the world, including Iraq, and to find out the reasons for this phenomenon must be measured impact on the national economy, and is the index of consumer prices of the most common measure of inflation in order to find the means and the treatments needed and this can be reached through the study of the role of aggregates   Commodity and its impact on the general trend of cash inflation, in  Iraq for the period 2004 2009 to determine the groups lead to inflation in Iraq, where it emerged that the group rent is ranked first in the proportion of its contribution to the index of consumer prices, and food group is ranked second. The fuel and lighting group ranked third.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 07 2021
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات تربوية
Spatial variation of students in secondary school in Iraq for the 2006- 2011 period
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The research, whose goal was to study students' failure in secondary school in Iraq, found that 50% of the Iraqi governorates achieved the lowest student failure rates, and Baghdad governorate had the highest percentage of repeaters. And that half of the provinces in Iraq have males constitute 70% of the repeaters, and failure in the exam represented 79.7% of the reasons for failure, and that half of the students who failed are confined to the first and third intermediate grades at a rate of 51.9% , and the research revealed that the security instability was the most influential factor in Students fai

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial Variation in Date Production and its Spatial Relationship to Climate in Central and Southern Iraq
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The climate is one of the natural factors affecting agriculture, and the success of the cultivation of any agricultural crop depends on the nature of the prevailing climate in the area of its ​​cultivation. If the main elements of climate: temperature, rain and humidity, affect the various agricultural activities that can be practiced, and the stages of growth of agricultural crops and also determine the areas of spread. When the climatic requirements of any crop are well available, its cultivation is successful and comfortable. The research starts from the problem of spatial variation of date production spatially in the study area and the reason for choosing dates because of its economic importance, so the research will be based on

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2024
Journal Name
مجلة الذكوات البيض
أشكالية توظيف الخطاب السياسي ودوره في تعزيز السلم المجتمعي: العراق انموذجا
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لكل دولة في هذا العالم خطابها السياسي والذي يحدد سياستها الداخلية والخارجية، وهي سياسة ثابتة تنطلق من مفاهيم وبرامج وثوابت تخدم مصالحها الحيوية، لكون الخطاب السياسي ليس مجرد كلام عابر في عالم السياسة الدولية وانما هو ثوابت مهمة يحدد توجهات هذه الدولة او تلك ويحدد دورها الدولي وطبيعة العلاقة مع البلدان الاخرى ومنها الدول المجاورة لها. شهد العراق بعد العام 2003 تحديات جديدة تمثلت بتغليب خطابات الطائفية والكراه

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