تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
In linear regression, an outlier is an observation with large residual. In other words, it is an observation whose dependent-variable value is unusual given its values on the predictor variables. An outlier observation may indicate a data entry error or other problem.
An observation with an extreme value on a predictor variable is a point with high leverage. Leverage is a measure of how far an independent variable deviates from its mean. These leverage points can have an effect on the estimate of regression coefficients.
Robust estimation for regression parameters deals with cases that have very high leverage, and cases that are outliers. Robust estimation is essentially a
... Show MoreFresh water resources in terms of water quality is a crucial issue worldwide. In Egypt, the Nile River is the main source of fresh water in the country and monitoring its water quality is a major task on governments and research levels. In the present case study, the physical, chemical and algal distribution in Nile River was monitored over two seasons (winter and summer) in 2019. The aims of the study were to check the seasonal variation among the different water parameters and also to check the correlations between those parameters. Water samples were collected from the Nile in Cairo governorate in EGYPT. The different physiochemical and microbiological properties in water samples were assessed. The studied parameters were included: te
... Show MoreThe current research focuses on a major problem: the weak role of disclosing corporate information in the application of laws, regulations and instructions related to the application of corporate governance principles weakens the ability to protect the rights of shareholders and investors in companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange and the study aims to study and analyze the role of disclosure and transparency in achieving the necessary protection to ensure the rights of shareholders. The study was applied to a sample of (42) analysis samples representing (84%) of the total questionnaires distributed to investors and shareholders in all listed companies in the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The results confirm the shareholder's right to obtai
... Show MoreA new Species of the Cerambycinae belonging to the genus Hesperophanes was found new to the fauna of Iraq and Science. H. testaceus was studied in details and the male genitalia were illustrated. Type's paratypes and the locality of this newly described Species were mentioned.
This research aims to show the most important approaches applicable in forming the accounting standards , the importance approaches used to formulate local accounting standards & the need to cancel or develop the unified accounting system in Iraq besides activate the local auditing & accounting standards council to issue accounting standards able to save the relevance & Reliable accounting information that serve the decisions of stockholders and others of stakeholders in the incorporate companies , especially the companies listed in the Iraq securities exchange , So this study based partially on analyzing the questionnaire form which has been designed to inquiry the specialists and experts opinion about the accoun
... Show Moreتعد حوكمة الشركات Governance من المواضيع التي تهم العديد من الباحثين والمنظمات المهنية والدولية في فروع عديدة من المعرفة ، حيث يتضمن مفهوم حوكمة الشركات الاطار الذي يتم من خلاله وضع أهداف الشركات والمتمثله في حماية مصالح حملة الاسهم والاخرين من أصحاب المصلحه ، وتعظيم أداء الشركات وتقليل المخاطر وتحسين فرص الوصول الى أسواق رأس المال. وان احد اسباب ظهور حوكمة الشركات هو وجود عدد من الاختلالات الهيكلية في ا
... Show MoreThe banks mobilize savings and channel them to the economy, whether commercial or Islamic banks and thus both contribute to increasing financial depth, the objective of this paper is to measure the contribution of the Islamic banks in increase financial depth in Iraq, and compared the role played by private commercial banks in contributing to increasing financial depth in Iraq. The paper has been applying the most used indicators of financial depth that used widely in the literatures, especially those applicable with the Iraqi economy.
The paper found via using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) that Islamic banks did not contribute to increasing financial depth in Iraq, as well as for the p
... Show MoreThe Voluntary Obedience has great importance for the modern taxes systems and its management and this is meant the taxpayer whom in charge to pay of his taxes obligations voluntarily , he is very known of himself whereas he prepared his finishing accountings and present them as samples prepared by taxes management and settle the tax sum directly according to specified income , which has an impact to find end to tax evasion as result lead to increase the tax income and achieve the justice for the taxpayer and the state treasury
The paper aims to measure and analysis the impact Public Spending on Iraq economy (Kaldor Variables).
(variables of the magic square Kaldor) and them in after 2003.
The paper adopted econometric Methods to test the stationarity of the Variables under consideration. For the period (2005-2016) by using multiple regression and estimation the Impulse response function (IRF), by adopting Eviews 10 program.
The results of Impulse response function for the following five-years after the period under consideration reflexes that public expenditure (PEX) was fluctuating between positive and negative in all the variables of the research and this shows the fragility of the performance of fiscal policy in Iraq.
T
... Show MoreDue to the increasing interest in the quality of auditing by writers, researchers and regulators of the auditing profession. The matter necessitated a statement of the extent to which the auditor practices professional skepticism, because of its significant impact in discovering errors and material misrepresentations contained in the financial statements in order to give the financial community confidence in them and the success of the audit process. The research aims to clarify the concept and importance of the practice of professional skepticism and its effect on the quality of the auditor's performance in Iraq. To achieve the research objectives, the two re
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