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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-level model of the factors that affect the escalation of dust in Iraq
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In this research The study of Multi-level  model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level  models and one of  the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly  among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Industries Based on the Petrochemical Industry in Iraq-Plastics Industry as a Model
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This study came to discuss the subject of industries dependent on petrochemical industries in Iraq (plastic as a model) during the period 2005–2020, and the study concluded that the plastic industries contribute to areas of advancement and progress and opportunities to deal efficiently with the challenges posed by the new variables, the most important of which is the information revolution. communications and trade liberalization, and this is what contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. And because the petrochemical industry in Iraq has an active role in establishing plastic industrial clusters and clusters of micro, small, and medium industries by providing the necessary feedstock for these industries in various fields

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work: The case study of a sample of doctors hospitals City of Medicine
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Purpose: The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors in the hospitals of t the six hospitals in the City of Medicine.

Design / methodology / Approach: It has been relying on ready-scale, to make sure the diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work, where they were distributed on Form 42 doctors in the six hospitals in the City of Medicine, were analyzed by software (Nvivo and SPSS v.22).

Results: The results showed that there is a good level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors.

Research limitations: The diffi

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
New Species of the Sub family Cerambycinae (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) from Iraq: New Species of the Sub family Cerambycinae (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) from Iraq
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A new Species of the Cerambycinae belonging to the genus Hesperophanes was found new to the fauna of Iraq and Science. H. testaceus was studied in details and the male genitalia were illustrated. Type's paratypes and the locality of this newly described Species were mentioned.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The effect of the Persian Lexemes on the dialect of the Iraq socethren marches لهجهء اهوار جنوب عراق وتأثر آن به واﮊه هاى فارسى
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چکیده

کشورعراق مرزهای زمینی ایران دارد که علاوه بر این ، مشترکات وروابط متعدد اقتصادی ،سیاسی، فرهنگی ودينى ميان هر دو ملت می باشند . عراق بعلت موقعیت جغرافیایی ونزدیکی به ایران سهم بیشتری برای ورود واژه های فارسی به لهجه ی خود داشت ، علاوه بر این رویدادهای سیاسی متقابل قدیم و جدید میان دو کشور سبب ورود بسیاری از لغات فارسی به لهجه ی عراقی شد که کاربرد این لغات هم اکنون در لهجه ی عراقی آشکار است ، ای

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Cultural alienation of residents outside Iraq
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The world has seen in recent years as a result of rapid changes in the information and communication revolution until his limbs became distant as if a small screen can be controlled at the touch of which resulted in a stunning advance in all areas of life button, these changes were not accompanied by all the positive development, but it has many drawbacks on humans resulted in many of the psychological, social, intellectual and cultural problems.

As it is the cultural alienation of the most important challenges faced by the community in light of the tremendous technological progress and rapid jumps that exceeded all expectations in addition to the economic, social and political changes experienced by the country led to the desire

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 27 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
"INSTALLATION intellectual middle class "Iraq model"
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الخلاصة

اهتم الفكر السياسي في القرنين الاخيرين بدراسة الطبقات على نحو غير مسبوق, واصبح موضوع التحليل الطبقي المعني بالطبقات من حيث تعريفها, وتحديد موقعها في السلم الاجتماعي, فضلاً عن نوعية العلاقة بين شرائحها وفئاتها المختلفة من حيث الصراع والتناغم, المادة الرئيسة والموضوع الاكثر اهمية في دراسات الفكر السياسي والاجتماعي.ومن بين الطبقات, احتلت الطبقة الوسطى مكا

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Iraq and the US-Iranian conflict, influence and influence
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Iraq enjoys many factors and ingredients that made it “affect and be affected at the same time” by the American-Iranian conflict from the “strategic geographical position” adjacent to Iran as an important point and that Iraq has been part of this conflict since the last period which witnessed the outbreak of the first Gulf War  (1980-1988)  because of border problems and a dispute over Shatt al-Arab, and what followed after that, specifically from 2003 when the United States of America and its allies occupied Iraq’s lands and made a political change by the destruction of its security and military institutions. It increased the importance of Iraq in being a subject of competition between the competing parties in exploiting the

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2010
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العراق من التحول الديمقراطيالى التماسك الديمقراطي
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العراق من التحول الديمقراطي الى التماسك الديمقراطي

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
International and regional alliances polarization.. Case study IRAQ
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Abstract Iraq has an important place in the regional and international balance, and the competition among countries has increased in rapprochement with Iraq, not only for its geography or its privileged location, but because it has many other components that make regional and international countries want to strengthen their relations with it (Regional and international powers). In addition to that, Iraq has become increasingly important for these international and regional powers after its victory over the terrorist organization (ISIS), which proved an important fact that Iraq represents the most important pillars in the international balance.

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