تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract
The problem of the study is the main question (Can tourism planning address the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq ?) , And the importance of the study in the fact that the tourism sector can become an effective development alternative in many countries, especially Iraq, as tourism contributes to diversify sources of income and stimulate other economic sectors , We know how important Iraq's qualifications are in the field of tourism and what it can generate on the public treasury, To confirm the current study on the need to pay attention to tourism planning for its role in providing employment opportunities that reduce the unemployment rate in the future.
&n
... Show MoreWith the twenty - First century, It becomes clear to us that for 110 years the Japanese - Chinese relations have been witnessing big radical events and developments. ( we take the year of 1949 as the starting date for this relations). In order to prove hypothesis the study divided in to four chapters. - The first chapter deals with explaining the factors of the subject of the Japanese - Chinese relations which described as Indirect threat and aggressive relations from Japan to China after the Second World War by Japanese entering in the American world strategy, in order to destroy the communist china's system which decleard in 1949, because the united states understood that the new system in Beijing could threat American's Interest
... Show MoreA large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar
... Show MoreThe production function forms one of the techniques used in evaluation the production the process for any establishment or company, and to explain the importance of contribution of element from the independent variable and it's affect on the dependent variable. Then knowing the elements which are significant or non-significant on the dependent variable.
So the importance of this study come from estimating the Cobb-Douglas production function for Al- Mansoor General Company for Engineering industries in Iraq during the period (1989-2001)
To explain the importance which effects the independent variable such as
(N
Land Transport regards a main element in the In Fra – structure of the national economy where distance and time shortness, open new opportunities of work, develop the different regions and rise the standard of living….
It is necessary to emphasize that the circumastances surrounding Iraq such as wars, economic sanctions, blockade occupation effected negatively upon economic Indicators of land Transportion including Value of output Value added contraction of Investment allocation and Investment expend tuer and the period of implementation and fulfillment of the projects of Land Transport to be ready to offer their service in underdeveloped country Like Iraq aiming to satisfy Fast and acomprehensi
... Show MoreThis paper deals with novels for group of Iraqi Women novelists published in the time period 2003 – 2013, and the functioning of temporal anomalies in the Iraqi Women's narrative.
In general, the novel contains structural elements such as: the characters, events and the places, these elements must be collected by an artist creating a complete work of fiction. However the time dominates the other elements through progression and regaining called Time paradox, it has a modern critical importance because of its impact in highlighting of political, social and cultural events that make up the fictional environment which cast a shadow over other techniques. And that it is clear in the course of the narrative.
The topic area of that’s research dealing with values which adopted by Iraqi people since 1980, many changes and variables which make many situations and skills which the life is suitable in war and conflicts times. That’s values like traditional and ordering, traditionalism mean the conservation about values s and tradition which society adopted its. The Iraqi society suffering from many changes since 1980-2003, the consequently of that’s changes make Iraqi citizen more interested about luxury needs like clothes, while decreasing the interested about liberty of thought, beauty, show evidence of identity, and openness of mind. The processing of values changes associated with political behavior of Iraqi people which lead to weaken o
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to attempt to provide a quantitative analysis to the causes of unemployment in Iraq and its mechanisms of generation, as well as a review of the most important types of both visible and invisible unemployment, and an attempt to measure the disguised unemployment and analyze the causes. The problem of the research lies in the fact that the Iraqi Economy has been suffered for a long time although its characterized by abundant physical and natural resources, from the existence of the phenomenon of unemployment in the previous two types. Causing a lot of economic problems, represented by the great waste of resources and
... Show MoreThe study aims to study the geographical distribution of electricpower plants in Iraq, except the governorates of Kurdistan Region (Dohuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah) due to lack of data.
In order to reach the goal of the research was based on some mathematical equations and statistical methods to determine how the geographical distribution of these stations (gas, hydropower, steam, diesel) within the provinces and the concentration of them as well as the possibility of the classification of power plants in Iraq to facilitate understanding of distribution in a scientific manner is characterized by objectively.
The most important results of the research are that there are a number of factors that led to the irregular distribution
... Show More