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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
political culture as a tool to analyse Decentralization Experience in
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It sheds light on the cultural dimension in the decentralized administration experience in Iraq as evaluation tool by adding a new dimension in studying decentralization in addition to the administrative, political and legal dimensions .The proposal of study is that without the civil political culture ,the administrative decentralization in Iraq which remains weak and it may be imposed to a set of problems. - The study includes an introduction, conclusion and a set of political and cultural issues , its components and it may have the political analysis of this culture and its role in determining the movement of the administrative decentralized movement in Iraq post 2003.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends of Women's Economic Empowerment in Iraq for the Period 1990-2018
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This research aims to study the economic, social, and political reality of Iraqi women by identifying the obstacles and diagnosing their empowerment trends in various fields, assessing the extent of their participation in economic activity, and re-achieving balance between women and men by reducing the gender gap between them and reducing the percentage of female unemployment to the lowest possible level. Is achieved by enhancing confidence in Iraqi women by enacting laws and making decisions that allow them to access resources freely. The researcher used the descriptive and analytical method to deal with information and data related to the research topic over a specific period (1990-2018), using local, Arab, and international re

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Relationship between Growth and Economic Reformation in Iraq: Post 2003
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There were many ideas and opinions on the linkage between growth and economic reform  in both developed and developing countries. The relationship is, of course, existed. Therefore, this research comes to analyses it in the Iraqi economy. This study is based on a hypothesis that the economic reformation in Iraq leads to lag level of growth with the of high rates of inflation. However, the study is designed to be included five sections. It found a positive relationship between the economic reformation and slowing of economic growth, in which the specified hypothesis is not fit to the economic reality in Iraq after 2003                  &

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Factors specific to the process of sustainable development in Prov Iraqi Kurdistan
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Thoudy sustainable development attention of researchers and scholars at various orientations intellectual economies were or Ssayasn, or others as gaining the process of paramount importance in the light of major developments and unprecedented in the modern world at the levels of all and which turned the world sprawling into something like a global village is small, being aimed at elimination of backwardness and development branches of the national economy and raise the level of economic performance, and what was the province of Kurdistan-Iraq from areas with privacy clear and meets the elements of economic development has seen the movement of economic development and social with special features de facto geographical, political a

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pollution threatens water quality in the Central Marshes of Southern Iraq
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Water pollution is an issue that can be exacerbated by drought as increased concentrations of unwanted substances are a consequence of lower water levels. Polluted water that flows into natural marshlands leads to the deposition of pollutants in the interior of the marsh. Here we present evidence that the interior of the Central Marsh (CM) in southern Iraq suffers from higher levels of pollution than areas closer to the source of water entering the marsh (the Euphrates River). A 1.7m embankment that halts the flow of the Euphrates is only infrequently breached and so the CM is effectively the terminal destination of the waters (and their associated pollutants and agricultural waste) flowing from the West of Iraq.

A range of water

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
خطة الصيانة الوقائية ومحاكاتها على وفق معايير هندسة المعولية دراسة حالة في الشركة العامة للصناعات الجلدية - معمل رقم 7-
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This research is an attempt to study and evaluate the maintenance function at Factory 7 - The State General Company for Leather Industries, and to design a computerized preventive maintenance system to design and to analyze preventive  maintenance.  To accomplish the objectives of this research, data were gathered and analyzed according to the reliability engineering criteria for the period 2/1– 30/6/2005, then a preventive maintenance plan was designed for each machine of the sample study using the computerized system designed in this research. A Monte Carlo Simulation methodology was used for the purpose of evaluating the performance of the preventive maintenance plan of each machine for one year. The simulation res

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through the human resources management strategies / case study in the Municipality of Ramadi.
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The main focus of research is on how to achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through human resources management strategies, which is a major of research aimed. The main problem of this research was confirmed, which confirms that there is an unclear role for social responsibility, lack of human resources management strategies, and ambiguity of roles in the municipality under study. The diagnose of the problem and determining the gap between the internal and external dimensions of social responsibility and human resources management was identified, which attacked the researcher's attention to navigate in this subject, look for the reasons for the gaps and try to reduce them. The case study

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Forced Displacement during the Syrian Forced Displacement during the Syrian Crisis, and its Impact on Jaramana’s Children's Education: A Field Study , and its Impact on Jaramana’s Children's Education: A Field Study: نهال ريحاوي جلب , قاسم الربداوي
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The study aims to examine the problem of forced displacement and its social and economic problems in light of the Syrian crisis. Such an aim helps to know the difficulties and challenges facing the children of displaced families in learning, and the reasons for their lack of enrolment. It also clarifies whether there are significant statistical differences at  among the attitudes of the children of the displaced families towards education regarding the following variables: (the work of the head of the family, the economic level of the family, and the work of the children). The study has adopted the descriptive-analytical approach;  a questionnaire was adopted as a tool to collect information. The study was applied to a sample o

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
مقارنة تأثیر جمع البیانات المختلفة زمنیاً مع نموذج الجاذبیة السلوكي في مدینة بغداد (حالة الدراسة دالة الإعاقة لرحلة العمل)
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As we know the transportation studies regarded as one of a very
important and difficult studies and one of its difficulties created from the
process of data updating therefore the researcher well facing many difficulties
to balancing between the old data on collecting new data.
The research present an opinion which is summarized by: can we use
the old data after we updated and used it as alternatives? Or the researcher
must collect new data to complete their research which indicate to the present
situation and some times they cant complete their studies because of the
security, economic, temporally difficulties.
The research used two kinds of data, the old data which belong to the
period (1998) and new data

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Dosimetric Verification of Gamma Passing Rate for Head and Neck Cases Treated with Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) Treatment Planning Technique
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Each Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) plan needs to be tested and verified before any treatment to check its quality. Octavius 4D-1500 phantom detector is a modern and qualified device for quality assurance procedure. This study aims to compare the common dosimetric criteria 3%/3 mm with 2%/2 mm for H&N plans for the IMRT technique. Twenty-five patients with head and neck (H&N) tumor were with 6MV x-ray photon beam using Monaco 5.1 treatment planning software and exported to Elekta synergy linear accelerator then tested for pretreatment verification study using Octavius 4D-1500 phantom detector. The difference between planned and measured dose were assessed by using local and global gamma index (GI) analysis method at

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Scopus (2)
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