تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The concept of privatization is built on the basis of the transfer of assets and services of the public sector to the private sector this concept has appeared in the eighties of the last century whene the high oil prices took place and recession solution swept the world Which called for the freedom of the market and left the room for the private sector to take the initiatine in economic activity. Both the IMF have adopted this thesis in their programs of the structural adjustment in light of external and internal factors helped to Create the conditions to accept thesis that under the pretext of achieving a number of economic goals.
In Iraq in spite of
... Show MoreThe study present a detailed description of the new violent situation that those women faced after 2003 in Iraqi society and the effect of such violence and security breaking down on minority women perception and feeling of bonding or adaptation with this society and how they look to the aaceptance of the society to them and their minority group as a whole. In addition to the impact of these social changes after 2003,on the women rights and personal freedom. One of the aims of the study is to provide data base to be used when efforts present to put a policies or programs for supporting the minority women. Another aim is to point out and define the violations commited on the rights of those women. The field survey included 2100 women from
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the Traumatic Symptoms (physiological, emotional, and cognitive) of earthquakes among the targeted sample; it also aims to identify the significant differences between psychological, emotional, and cognitive traumatic symptoms of earthquakes according to the gender and age of participants. The study additionally seeks to identify thepsychological positive-negative reactions associated with earthquakes according to gender and age of the participants. To measure the traumatic symptoms of earthquakes, a 4-point Likert scale questionnaire with (20) items (questions) accompanied with a 4-point Likert scale questionnaire with (18) items (questions) were used to measure the Psychological positive-n
... Show Moreالعلوم السياسية في العراق بداياتها ، نشأتها ، تطورها ، ومفرداتها التدريسية
Economists agree upon the importance of exports and their positive impacts on the economic variables. Therefore، they studied policies encouraging exports and set out the instrumentalities supporting them. These instrumentalities included a combination of fiscal، monetary، commercial، production policies like the tax policy that is encouraging to the exports، exchange rates reduction، establishing commercial free zones، better production quality، fostering investment climate، and preparation of the necessary financing before the exporting process and afterwards.
This research is interested in the finding aspect amongst the instrumentalities encouraging exports which is parallel t
... Show MoreThe organization and development of the irrigation system and agrarian reform in Iraq had an impact on the diversity of its methods and uses
Was and military music still in Iraq whatever tributary of Music, where contributed Brphi Iraqi music musicians, authors and composers of musicians skilled and qualified teachers, was, and still have a big role in the growth and prosperity and progress of contemporary Iraqi music through active and vital role and make a lot of musical tenders excellence in various military and civilian walks of life whether it be in the days of war or peace.As it is the military music schools and the main source of the most important in the education of these machines and training. Therefore occupies the military musicians in Iraq prestigious and important, particularly in the Iraqi National Symphony Orchestra started the forefront of the musical instrum
... Show MoreFood industries are variety to include number of agricultural products (plantbotential and animal) which can be manufactured locally, thus, Iraqi market is full by different types of food products from neighbor countries, because of un equivalence and inability of competence, in away to cover (90%) average of local request need under commercial opening.
In Iraq although its importance, this industry suffers from difficulties, the most important one is the rising in products costs, shortage in agricultural products, experience, and qualification, besides, the challenges , by flooding market in food products and what are contained of higher competitive features from quality and prices side
... Show MoreThis research aims at making a comparative survey between the dry season in (2017-2018) and the wet season (2018-2019) in Iraq concerning the variation of rainfall and pressure systems responsible for such a difference. In this paper, seven climatological stations have been selected: Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Baghdad, Rutba, Diwaniyah and Basra. Results have shown that the first category of rainfall of the two seasons has recorded a higher number of rainy days in comparison with the second and third categories with a total of 274 day in a dry season and 403 day of a wet season. Further, the total amount of the annual continuous rain is higher than the total of thunderstorms in a dry season as well as in the
... Show MoreThe study aimed at clarifying the contradictions of the general industrial companies despite the investment allocations and the government investment expenditure on manufacturing activities under the so- called rehabilitation programs. However, this did not contribute to a certain extent in the growth and industrial leap in the direction of developing the activities of the sector Industrial sector in Iraq because of the lack of adoption of a number of basic principles towards the need to take priority of investment in the field of manufacturing and industrial decision-making in the restructuring of industry according to the priorities of investment in light of the international industrial trend, Tosmarah available to the manufact
... Show More