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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of direct withholding tax procedures as a tool to increase tax proceeds : applied research in the General Tax Authority / Direct Deduction Department
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The research aims to evaluate the direct deduction department’s procedures for the process of collecting income tax using the direct deduction method for state departments and the public sector in light of direct deduction tax instructions No. (1) of 2007 and Income Tax Law No. (113) of 1982 (amended) through Giving a clear idea of ​​the reality of tax collection procedures because this type of tax is one of great importance because it contributes to the provision of financial revenues to the state to finance its expenses and direct the economy towards achieving its social, economic and political goals. The researcher makes comparisons between the procedures of the General Tax Authority in collecting the tax and what was approved b

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Selective Counseling Program in Modifying the Irrational Thoughts That Cause Anger in a Sample of Female Teachers in Different Educational Stages
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The research seeks to identify the effectiveness of a selective program in modifying irrational thinking that causes anger among an important class of societies in general. namely teachers. Specifically female teachers because of the pressures they suffer because of the nature of this profession. It may develop into anger outburst, which may cause irrational thinking arose as a result of the different situations they are going through. The sample of the program consisted of (12) teachers in Egypt, from different educational sectors. The researcher intended to clarify the emotion of anger and the irrational thoughts associated with it and the contribution of the selective counseling program in modifying those irrational thinking. This was

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Aesthetic Approaches to Dialectical Development in the Functions of Contemporary Theater Director ) Macbeth Play Directed by Salah al-Qasab a Model (: ثابت رسول جواد
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The current research studies the aesthetic framework for the dialectical development of the functions of the contemporary theater director in an aesthetic approach to the mechanisms of functional overlap between the dramaturgy and direction functions, and scenography and direction, the detection of the controversial structure of that overlap, and what can be summed up in the following question: (what are the aesthetic approaches of the dialectical development in the function of the contemporary theatre director?). The research is determined by a pivotal aim which is (knowing the aesthetic nature of the dialectical development in

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Publication Date
Thu May 21 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Babylon Center For Humanities Studies
المغول في كتاب " التاريخ الغياثي " لعبد الله بن فتح الله البغدادي الغياثي (ت بعد سنة ٩٠١ هـ / ١٤٩٥م
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of the differences in the correlation pattern of the micro blogging in the educational attainment of computer science curriculum for 12th grade students
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The object of this research is to determine the effect in the differences of the correlation pattern of the micro blogging on the educational attainment of computer science curriculum for 12th grade students. I will try to test the best suited correlation and I might use the demo curriculum as well to achieve its objectives , The research method that will be used in this research is the quantitative method where we will use a sample of 60 students divided into two groups ( correlate the micro blogging - adopted the sequence pattern of relating the micro blogging) As a result, we found out that there are quantitative differences among the two groups' median , The differences goes back to the main effect of the correlation pattern of the m

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Star model –model of organization design and reflections of its variables and dimensions of health performance on-filed study in medical city hospital
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Abstract

      The goal of current research to describe and diagnose the level of attention of doctors to design and regulatory dimensions, (strategic vision, organizational structure, organizational processes, business systems, personnel), and the performance of hospitals and dimensions, in six hospitals in medicine and selected a sample for research, as well as identify organizational design effect in the performance of hospitals and dimensions (efficiency, the development of human resources, patient satisfaction, achieve financial results, quality of health care).

 Research has focused in part theoretical on key variables to look organizational des

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the Active Learning Model and Its Effect on Students' Achievement in Chemistry for Fifth Intermediate Stage
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The objective of the research is to identify the effect of an instructional design according to the active learning modelsالباحثين in the achievement of the students of the fifth grade, the instructional design was constructed according to the active learning models for the design of education. The research experience was applied for a full academic year (the first & the second term of 2017-2018). The sample consisted of 58 students, 28 students for the experimental group and 30 students for the control group. The experimental design was adopted with partial and post-test, the final achievement test consisted of (50) objectives and essays items on two terms, the validity of the test was verified by the adoption of the Kudoric

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
When Krochh aesthetic implications and their impact in raising the artistic and aesthetic taste among the students of the Department of Art Education: صلاح رهيف أمير
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The goal of current research to:1 - Know when aesthetic implications (Korchh)2 - To form the structure of systemic indicators and results that reflect the visions of intellectual, philosophical and aesthetic art for this study.The theoretical framework for the study of the search for the meaning of beauty, definition ( Krochh) being a philosopher, his views, his own aesthetic philosophy, knowledge, art and beauty, as well as a subject of artistic and aesthetic taste and Study in Art Education.The goals have been achieved during the search of Investigation theoretical framework for the search, which tried (INT) to form a clear vision check the second goal by the indicators reached.In light of this, the researcher recommended the need for

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Influential Relationship of Environmental Analysis Processes in the Organization's Development Strategy An exploratory study of the views of a sample of the leaders of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior
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The study aims at diagnosing the importance of environmental analysis (external, industrial and internal) in the organization's strategy for the development of public organizations. The theoretical problem derived from the existence of a knowledge gap for studies and research that dealt with the variables of the study. Three public organizations were selected as the study society (the Civil Defense Directorate, the Directorate of Nationality, Passports and Residency, the General Traffic Directorate). The sample of the study was a sample of (215) managers (managers, department managers, Analysis of the data and hypothesis testing using the appropriate statistical tools, Pearson, the simple and multiple regression coefficient to te

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical quality control charts for measuring educational service quality at Albaha University, Saudi Arabia, from the viewpoint of students
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تم استخدام خرائط ضبط الجودة الإحصائية لتقييم جودة الخدمة التعليمية في جامعة الباحة،  ويهدف هذا البحث إلى استخدام خرائط ضبط الجودة الإحصائية لقياس مستوى الجودة وفجوة الجودة بين توقعات الطلبة وإدراكاتهم لمستوى الخدمة الذي تقدمه جامعة الباحة. حيث تم اختيار عينة من 200 طالب وطالبة عشوائيا باستخدام العشوائية العنقودية من 4 كليات خلال الفترة 01 – 30/2015م، وجمعت البيانات من خلال استبيان جودة الخدمة الذي يقيس ت

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