تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
مشكلة البحث :-
ظلت رغبة الانسان في المعرفة وفهم الكون الذي يعيش فيه ، ملازمة له منذ المراحل الاولى لتطور البشرية ، فالانسان بما يتمتع به من امكانات وقدرات وطاقات كامنة استطاع عن طريق تفاعله واحتكاكه الدائم والمستمر والخلاق مع البيئة المحيطة به ان يلاحظ ، ويتخيل ويتذكر ويفكر ويخطط ويبتكر ، مستفيداً من اخطائه في التعرف عليها ، وفي زيادة قدرته على التحكم فيها وتحسينها وتطويره
... Show MoreEndothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor hormone that has been identified as an important factor
responsible for the development of cardiovascular dysfunctions. ET-1 exerts its vasoconstrictor activity
through two pharmacologically distinct receptors, ETA and ETB that are found in vascular smooth muscle
cells (VSMCs) and the vasodilator activity through an ETB receptor located on endothelial cells. This study
aimed to show the impact of 1µM L-arginine (LA), 100µM tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4), and their combined
effect on ET-1 activity in both lead-treated and lead-untreated rat aortic rings. This means, investigating how
endothelial dysfunction reverses the role of nitric oxide precursor and cofa
Political terminology differs from any other type of terminology not only in the presence of political terminology, but also in content, structure, functions and the recipient who perceives it. Taking this into account, it is inappropriate to consider the semantic difficulties of translating Russian-language political terms solely at the semantic level. In our opinion, it is inextricably linked with the lexical, syntactic and grammatical levels. If we combine all 4 levels, then the following translation techniques can be distinguished: lexical borrowing (transcription / transliteration, tracing); modulation; generalization / concretization; omission / addition; descriptive translation; conversion [Komissarov 2013]. One of the most
... Show MoreThe paper deals with the language of Russian folklore. Folklore is a unique sphere of existence of the language, the most vivid expression of the national mentality. The folklore word embodied the perception and evaluation of the surrounding world. “What did the word in general mean for the life of the people? The word was equated ... with life itself. The word generated and explained life, it was ... the keeper of memory and the guarantee of the infinity of the future. The folklore text is studied by literary critics, ethnographers, historians, culturologists, and art historians. In the twentieth century, a new science emerged - linguo-folkloristics, the goals and objectives of which were formulated by A.T. Khrolenko only in the seven
... Show MoreBiodegradation is utilizing microorganisms to degrade materials into products that are safe for the
environment, such as carbon dioxide, water, and biomass. The current study aims to isolate and characterize
bacteria with polyethylene terephthalate (PET) degradation ability isolated from Shatt al-Arab water and
sewage from Basra, the bacteria were identified as Klebsiella pneumonia. According to the findings, the
isolates showed a highly significant difference in degradation of PET (24% during 7 days) and the percent of
degradation increased to 46% at 4 weeks compared to the control. The study also involved determining the
optimum temperature of K. pneumonia growth, which was 37°C, while the preferred
The rise of edge-cloud continuum computing is a result of the growing significance of edge computing, which has become a complementary or substitute option for traditional cloud services. The convergence of networking and computers presents a notable challenge due to their distinct historical development. Task scheduling is a major challenge in the context of edge-cloud continuum computing. The selection of the execution location of tasks, is crucial in meeting the quality-of-service (QoS) requirements of applications. An efficient scheduling strategy for distributing workloads among virtual machines in the edge-cloud continuum data center is mandatory to ensure the fulfilment of QoS requirements for both customer and service provider. E
... Show MoreMicrobial Desalination Cell (MDC) is capable of desalinating seawater, producing electrical power and treating wastewater. Previously, chemical cathodes were used, which were application restrictions due to operational expenses are quite high, low levels of long-term viability and high toxicity. A pure oxygen cathode was using, external resistance 50 and 150 k Ω were studied with two concentrations of NaCl in the desalination chamber 15-25 g/L which represents the concentration of brackish water and sea water. The highest energy productivity was obtained, which amounted to 44 and 46 mW/m3, and the maximum limit for desalination of saline water was (31% and 26%) for each of 25 g / L and 15 g / L, respectively, when using an ex
... Show MoreObjectives: To identify the effectiveness of instructional program concerning premarital screening of sexual transmitted disease on student's knowledge at Baghdad University and examine the relationship between students' knowledge and certain studied variables. And hypothesis for this study; There is a difference in university student’s knowledge toward premarital screening between pre and posttests of instructional program. Methodology: A quasi-experimental design (pretest-posttest approach) was conducted at six colleges and its college of education ibn rushd, college of political science, college of law, college of literatur
E.M. Forster (1879-1970) is one of the important novelists who dealt with the personal and social lives of the people in England during the early beginning of the twentieth century. During his literary career, he developed gradually his views about man and his position in society.
In his first novel, Where Angels Fear to Tread (1902), the focus is laid on local and personal issues in the lives of the characters. It is limited to the relations between neighbours in small communities. Though the setting is shifted to Italy, Forster does not make full use of this shift to present cultural or racial conflicts; rather he limits his plot to the private tr
... Show MoreInfluence of combined square nozzle with helical tape inserted in a constant heat flux tube on heat transfer enhancement for turbulent airflow for Reynolds number ranging from 7000 to 14500 were investigated experimentally. Three different pitch ratios for square nozzle (PR = 5.8, 7.7 and 11.6) according to three different numbers of square nozzle (N = 3, 4 and 5) and constant pitch ratios for helical tape were used. The results observed that the Nusselt number and friction factor for combination with winglets were found to be up to 33.8 % and 21.4 %, respectively higher than nozzle alone for pitch ratio PR=5.8. The maximum value of thermal performance for using combination with winglets was about 1.351 for pitch ratio= 5.8. Nusselt numb
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