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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of direct withholding tax procedures as a tool to increase tax proceeds : applied research in the General Tax Authority / Direct Deduction Department
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The research aims to evaluate the direct deduction department’s procedures for the process of collecting income tax using the direct deduction method for state departments and the public sector in light of direct deduction tax instructions No. (1) of 2007 and Income Tax Law No. (113) of 1982 (amended) through Giving a clear idea of ​​the reality of tax collection procedures because this type of tax is one of great importance because it contributes to the provision of financial revenues to the state to finance its expenses and direct the economy towards achieving its social, economic and political goals. The researcher makes comparisons between the procedures of the General Tax Authority in collecting the tax and what was approved b

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenographic space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model: فرحان عمران موسى - سماء محي عطية محمد
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The operative system of theatrical performance depends on the construction of the scenographic space, as it constitutes the most aesthetic effect of the recipient, and the body of the theatrical discourse that contains the signs of the show, and it comes as an embodiment of the directing vision of the show director, so most of the world directors resorted to attention to the output treatment to establish the scenographic space, and thus it possesses a contrast in The embodiment of the directing vision according to the stylistic and hermeneutical dimension of the director, so the two researchers found the importance of studying the topic, and the study came under the title (Directing Treatments of the Scenographic Space in the Iraqi Theat

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
When Krochh aesthetic implications and their impact in raising the artistic and aesthetic taste among the students of the Department of Art Education: صلاح رهيف أمير
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The goal of current research to:1 - Know when aesthetic implications (Korchh)2 - To form the structure of systemic indicators and results that reflect the visions of intellectual, philosophical and aesthetic art for this study.The theoretical framework for the study of the search for the meaning of beauty, definition ( Krochh) being a philosopher, his views, his own aesthetic philosophy, knowledge, art and beauty, as well as a subject of artistic and aesthetic taste and Study in Art Education.The goals have been achieved during the search of Investigation theoretical framework for the search, which tried (INT) to form a clear vision check the second goal by the indicators reached.In light of this, the researcher recommended the need for

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
comparison Bennett's inequality and regression in determining the optimum sample size for estimating the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) using simulation
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 Researchers have increased interest in recent years in determining the optimum sample size to obtain sufficient accuracy and estimation and to obtain high-precision parameters in order to evaluate a large number of tests in the field of diagnosis at the same time. In this research, two methods were used to determine the optimum sample size to estimate the parameters of high-dimensional data. These methods are the Bennett inequality method and the regression method. The nonlinear logistic regression model is estimated by the size of each sampling method in high-dimensional data using artificial intelligence, which is the method of artificial neural network (ANN) as it gives a high-precision estimate commensurate with the dat

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mixed Micelles of Binary Mixtures of Sodium Dodecylbenzene Sulfate and Tween 80 Surfactants in Aqueous Solutions
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In the present work, the surface properties of mixed binary surfactants containing sodium dodecylbenzene sulfate (SDBS) and Tween 80 (TW80) surfactants in aqueous solutions were studied at temperature 293 K using surface tension measurements. The critical micelle concentration (cmc) magnitude for both individual surfactants and their mixtures were established the obtained results revealed  that the magnitude of cmc of the mixtures are less than the magnitude of individual surfactants and decrease with the increase in Tween 80 percent in solution which indicate the nonideal  mixing of the two surfactants. The values of molecular interaction parameters  and the mole fraction of surfactants in the micelle (X1) were calculated

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
L'image de l'Arabe et l'attitude d'Albert Camus envers la question algérienne dans sa nouvelle "L'Hôte" de son recueil "L'Exil et le Royaume" : Une étude analytique
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Parmi les oeuvres d'Albert Camus, qui s'éloignent un peu de sa
tendance générale qui traite les thèmes de l'absurde ,du néant et de la
question de la mort , on trouve son recueil "l'Exil et le Royaume" 1957
qui contient six nouvelles qui sont d'une invention moins épouvantable
(le Renégat , la Femme adultère , les Muets , le Pierre qui pousse , l'Hôte
et Jonas). Ces nouvelles , à l'exception du "Renégat" , ne provoquent pas
les questions philosophiques et dialectiques qui dominent la plupart des
oeuvres d'Albert Camus , Mais ces nouvelles traitent tout simplement la
question d'homme exilé dans son existence et sa recherche perpétuelle
de son royaume.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 31 2014
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Corrosion Behavior of V2AlC and Cr2AlC Compared with SS 316L in NaOH at Four Temperatures
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Abstract

      This work involves the manufacturing of MAX phase materials include V2AlC and Cr2AlC using powder metallurgy as a new class of materials which characterized by regular crystals in lattice. Corrosion behavior of these materials was investigated by Potentiostat to estimate corrosion resistance and compared with the most resistant material represented by SS 316L. The experiments were carried out in 0.01N of NaOH solution at four temperatures in the range of 30–60oC. Polarization resistance values which calculated by Stern-Geary equation indicated that the MAX phase materials more resistant than SS 316L. Also cyclic polarization tests confirme

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
The political dimension in the speech of the director, author (Dawoud Abdel Sayed) Citizen film, informant and thief (amodel): احمد جبار عبد الكاظم
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The research addresses the questioning of political loads in a cinematic model from the films of the author (David Abdel Sayed), who has been busy throughout his films in criticizing political power, where he presented protests visions her body the artistic composition of cinematic means of expression through artistic treatments that facilitate the representations of modernity in contemporary cinematic trends, and by this Several contemporary cinematic criticism is an example of a thinker cinematographer who presents his critical thesis on power politics through the composition of the film (material - form - expression). The research consisted of four chapters. The first was a methodological framework that included the research problem o

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Coverage of Health Topics in Iraqi Press An analytical Study of Two Newspapers entitled 'al-Sabah and al-Mada' from January 1, 2007 to October 31, 2001
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The current study aims to cover  the health topics  in the Iraqi  journalism ,  to know  the concern 's level  of the Iraqi journalism  when  covering  the health subjects and to know the size of its performance  under the diversity of  visual and audio medias. The researcher has discussed his research by wording it with a set of inquiries   that should be answered via the research and study.  He could have determined that by the following:

What is the concern's level of Iraqi journalism over the health subjects?  What are the forms and press arts that are functionalized by the Iraqi journalism as to get the health message to the republics?  What is t

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Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an education program for Caregivers Knowledge Related to Management of Children with Growth Hormone Deficiency in Outpatient Endocrine Clinics
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Objectives: The study aims to assess and evaluate the caregivers  knowledge  about management of the children with growth hormone deficiency and to find out the relationship between caregivers kowledge and caregivers age, gender, number of individual in house hold, Date of treatment started ,Caregivers level education and economic status Methodology: Quazi expermental study design was carried out at (Child's Central Teaching Hospital, Medical City of Al Imamian Al Khadhmain Teaching Hospital, and National Centre for Treatment and Research of Diabetes,Specialized Center for Endocrine Diseases and Diabetes, and Department of Medical City Children Welfare Teaching Hospital started  from 

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