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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2024
Journal Name
مجلة الفارابي للعلوم النسانية
اثر استراتيجية نجمتين وامنية في تحصيل مادة الكيمياء عند طلاب الصف الثاني المتوسط م . د . انور عباس محمد
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يهدف البحث الى التعرف على اثر استراتيجية نجمتين وامنية في تحصيل مادة الكيمياء عند طلاب الصف الثاني المتوسطولتحقيق هدف البحث تم اتباع المنهج التجريبي ذو الضبط الجزئي وتم تحديد مجتمع البحث بطلاب الصف الثاني المتوسط لجميع المدارس الثانموية والمتوسط التابعة لمديرية تربية الكرخ الثانية وتم اخنيار احد هذه المداس بصورة قصدية لتطبيق تجربة ابلبحث الحالي

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Potential Role of 8-Hydroxyguanosine and some Pro Inflammatory Cytokines as Biomarkers in Colorectal Cancer Iraqi Patients
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8-hydroxyguanosine (8-OHdG) is considered as an indicator of the oxidative stress. Pro inflammatory cytokines are critical parts of the pathophysiological processes to which treatment can be applied. The aim of this study was to evaluate 8-OHdG and pro inflammatory cytokines concentration in colon carcinoma patients. Blood samples were taken before treatment from 50 incident cases with colon cancer (stage III) admitted for health examination at the Nanakali Hospital in Erbil city with 45 healthy samples of controls with age range between 38-69 years for both groups. All studied parameters were estimated by ELISA. Participants at this study were 95 Participants ranged in age from 38 to 69 years, 50 Participants had been newly diagnosed wi

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an education program for Caregivers Knowledge Related to Management of Children with Growth Hormone Deficiency in Outpatient Endocrine Clinics
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Objectives: The study aims to assess and evaluate the caregivers  knowledge  about management of the children with growth hormone deficiency and to find out the relationship between caregivers kowledge and caregivers age, gender, number of individual in house hold, Date of treatment started ,Caregivers level education and economic status Methodology: Quazi expermental study design was carried out at (Child's Central Teaching Hospital, Medical City of Al Imamian Al Khadhmain Teaching Hospital, and National Centre for Treatment and Research of Diabetes,Specialized Center for Endocrine Diseases and Diabetes, and Department of Medical City Children Welfare Teaching Hospital started  from 

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 05 2026
Journal Name
مجلة الجامعة العراقية
معضلة "الإجماع" في ميثاق جامعة الدول العربية وأثرها على إدارة أزمة الخليج الثانية (1990-1991): قراءة قانونية-تاريخية
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الملخص (باللغة العربية) شكّل اجتياح العراق للكويت في 2 آب/أغسطس 1990 اختباراً حاسماً لقدرة جامعة الدول العربية على إدارة الأزمات الإقليمية وصياغة موقف عربي موحّد إزاء انتهاك واضح لسيادة دولة عضو. غير أن أداء الجامعة خلال أزمة الخليج الثانية كشف عن حالة من الشلل المؤسسي والإجرائي، تجلّت في بطء اتخاذ القرار، وتنازع التأويلات حول شرعية الإجراءات، وتوظيف نصوص الميثاق بما أعاق إنتاج قرار عربي حازم وقابل للتنفيذ. تن

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Two of (Turnbull) and (Generalization Turnbulls)non-parametric methods in estimating conditional survival function (applied study on breast cancer patients)
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   This research includes the application of non-parametric methods in estimating the conditional survival function represented in a method (Turnbull) and (Generalization Turnbull's) using data for Interval censored of breast cancer and two types of treatment, Chemotherapy and radiation therapy and age is continuous variable, The algorithm of estimators was applied through using (MATLAB) and then the use average Mean Square Error (MSE) as amusement  to the estimates and the results showed (generalization of Turnbull's) In estimating the conditional survival function and for both treatments ,The estimated survival of the patients does not show very large differences

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Requirements of stress tests model and the possibility to apply in Iraqi banks exploratory study of the views of a sample of staff in the central Bank of Iraq .
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Abstract

This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools  in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability  in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .

To achieving the reseach obje

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Study of the participation of Saudi women in official visual arts exhibitions "Contemporary Saudi Art Exhibition as an Example": حنان بنت سعود الهزاع
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This research studies the Saudi women participation in the visual arts, presents descriptive and analytical overview on their artworks and assess development through their participation in the said exhibition, frequency of participation, and aims to understand the most important stages and changes of the subjects addressed, artistic styles and the factors affecting these results in view of female artist's attitude pertaining to several aspects such as administrative organization, judging committees etc.

Interviews were held with a sample of female artists, 17 artists from different regions and generations out of 182 participants and reviewed relevant exhibition literature during the period 1979-2018. The research problem is to id

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impacts on profitability ratios: An applied research at the national insurance co. for the period 2004-2014
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The research is trying to identify the investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impact, on the Profitability ratios of the company, and whether the company's scientific methods followed in the measurement of these risks, and conducted research in the National Insurance Company. by relying on its annual budget as well as the annual reports, The search dealing with these data in theoretical and practical major premise to statistically significant between to investment portfolio risk and financial performance correlation and reach a set of conclusions and recommendations which are the following.                

investments include many ri

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Design and Comparative Study of a one and Two Stage Blumlein Circuit TEA Nitrogen Laser
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Two Prototypes of Transversely Excited at atmospheric pressure (TEA) Nitrogen laser systems (One Stage Blumlein Circuit and Two Stage Blumlein Circuit) were fabricated and operated. High voltage power supply with variable operating voltage (0-20 kv) and operating current (1-3A) was built and tested successfully. The gas flow rate of 15 L/ min and 10 L/ min for OSBC and TSBC was used. The performance of the fabricated systems was studied extensively reaching to the optimum operating conditions. The obtained laser output energy for the first system has linear relationship with the applied voltage. The maximum output energy was about (1.14 mJ) with (10.40) ns pulse duration and the half-wave divergence angle was about (0.1455 m rad). In the

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 12 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
( مُختَصَرُ الإمام المَيدانيّ في عِلم التَّصريف ) للإمام أبي الفضل أحمد بن محمّد بن إبراهيم الميداني ( ت 518 هـ )
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    The aim of this research is to make a new investigation of a scientific thesis in Arabic Morphology in which an allusion occurred in relation to its real author and its title, there is alot of dropping and flaw when it was first applied due to depending on one written transcript

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