تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
There is no doubt that the achievement of the manuscripts is important in a place as it is based on reviving the heritage of the Islamic nation, as well as engaging in the prophetic hadith and its sciences pride for every Muslim, and this prompted me to achieve a manuscript message that serves this aspect i.e. the science of the prophetic hadith, and in an important subject that needs to stand on Each of the people, as well as the one who cares about the science of hadith and this topic is: Explaining the hadith of the people is partners in three, to the scholar Muhammad bin Ismail, famous for the Prince Al-Sanani, mentioning his methods and evidence, and their degree of health and weakness, and the statement of what is intended of him,
... Show MoreThis research asks what are negative social behaviours in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) raised by the talk shows on the (NRT) channel? Furthermore, it aims to identify the most significant themes addressed by talk shows on the (NRT) channel regarding negative social behaviours in the KRI by using the content analysis approach through non-random purposive sampling to understand the dialogue contents that dealt with this subject. This study has reached a set of results: through its talk shows, the (NRT) channel attempts to create a media vision about the spread of negative social behaviours in the KRI and stand up to the dangers associated with these behaviours. At the same time, those programs tried to marginalize the behaviours that
... Show MoreMultilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m
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One of the most suitable materials to be used in latent heat thermal energy storage system (LHTES) are Phase change materials, but a problem of slow melting and solidification processes made many researchers focusing on how to improve their thermal properties. This experimental work concerned with the enhancing of thermal conductivity of phase change material. The enhancing method was by the addition of copper Lessing rings in phase change material (paraffin wax). The effect of diameter for the used rings was studied by using two different diameters (0.5 cm and 1cm). Also, three volumetric percentages of rings addition (3%, 6% and 10%) were tested for each diameter. The discharging process was done with
... Show MoreThe aim of the present research is to measure the degree of strategic effectiveness (fahs) in the development of grammar skills of high school students in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and to achieve the goal of the researcher the researcher used the semi-experimental approach; On ten arbitrators specializing in grammar, morphology, curricula and methods of teaching the Arabic language. After confirming the validity of the guideline, the researcher prepared an achievement test consisting of (22) paragraphs of the type of short answer and multiple choice. The researcher trained a teacher to apply the strategy to the experimental research sample using the (screening) component of (30) students, and the same parameter taught the control sampl
... Show MoreE.M. Forster (1879-1970) is one of the important novelists who dealt with the personal and social lives of the people in England during the early beginning of the twentieth century. During his literary career, he developed gradually his views about man and his position in society.
In his first novel, Where Angels Fear to Tread (1902), the focus is laid on local and personal issues in the lives of the characters. It is limited to the relations between neighbours in small communities. Though the setting is shifted to Italy, Forster does not make full use of this shift to present cultural or racial conflicts; rather he limits his plot to the private tr
... Show MoreIn the article we consider features of official style, its functions and factors which influence the definition of the style. The topicality of the issue can be explained by rapid development of market economy which affects in its turn business correspondence. In this regard, there are a lot of cliché, terms and professionalisms appeared recently. Only correct usage of them can serve as a key to successful communication in Russian as well as other languages. This work highlights documents that are part of the diplomatic style such as declarations, credentials, notes, resolutions and other documents. The administrative style can include orders and instructions.
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... Show MoreThe continuous technical development in the means of communication and information technologies has led to an increase in competition in the provision of service and product on the part of the organizations, as this competition does not know silence and stability on specific methods, but rather it is a world that is constantly moving and renewed in approaches, methods and approaches, and the focus of attention of integrated marketing communications practitioners are Customers, for them, organizations sell their goods, products, services, and ideas, and with them, they become stronger in competition.
This scientific study aimed to identify the trends of the initiators towards the integrated marketing communications of (the Emirates Tel
Influence of combined square nozzle with helical tape inserted in a constant heat flux tube on heat transfer enhancement for turbulent airflow for Reynolds number ranging from 7000 to 14500 were investigated experimentally. Three different pitch ratios for square nozzle (PR = 5.8, 7.7 and 11.6) according to three different numbers of square nozzle (N = 3, 4 and 5) and constant pitch ratios for helical tape were used. The results observed that the Nusselt number and friction factor for combination with winglets were found to be up to 33.8 % and 21.4 %, respectively higher than nozzle alone for pitch ratio PR=5.8. The maximum value of thermal performance for using combination with winglets was about 1.351 for pitch ratio= 5.8. Nusselt numb
... Show MoreThe Wonderful Wizard of Oz and Peter and Wendy present universal ideas that exist in all times, despite being written in the beginning of the 20th century. Among the most significant ones is the concept of “home”. The article discusses the essentiality of the idea of “home” where the identity of an individual shapes, and where one’s spiritual, psychological, and physical being develop. It also studies the attitudes of each protagonist towards the concept of ‘home’ based on their understanding of it and according to their gender differences. The characters in both stories tread on the path of perplexity between leaving their homes and returning to them. Peter’s world is the world of imagination while Doro
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